特朗普会栽在宪法修正案上吗

Type “the 25th amendment” into a search engine and the results throw up a lot of stories about Donald Trump. This hitherto fairly obscure codicil to the work of America’s founding fathers was among the hot topics of conversation among leading Republicans at the Munich Security Conference. Perhaps, the chatter had it, it provides the route to unseat the president. Such is the surreal nature of the conversation within the Washington political establishment about Mr Trump’s steadily more surreal presidency.

在搜索引擎中输入“第25修正案”，会有很多关于唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)的新闻。针对美国开国元勋们制定的宪法出台的这条迄今仍鲜为人知的修正案，是参加慕尼黑安全会议(Munich Security Conference)的美国共和党高层热议的一个话题。也许，这条行文繁琐的修正案提供了一条罢免总统的路径。在华盛顿的政治建制派内部，围绕特朗普严重超现实的总统职务的议论就带着这样的超现实本质。

First the amendment. Passed 50 years ago and intended to address ambiguities in the body of the constitution, the amending clause offers an alternative to impeachment as a way to change the commander-in-chief. Specifically it says: “Whenever the vice-president and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the president pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the president is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the vice-president shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as acting president.”

首先，这条50年前通过的、旨在解决宪法原文中模糊之处的修正案，在以弹劾方式撤换总统之外提供了另一种选择。该修正案明确写道：“凡当副总统和行政各部长官的多数或国会以法律设立的其他机构成员的多数，向参议院临时议长和众议院议长提交书面声明，声称总统不能够履行总统职务的权力和责任时，副总统应立即作为代理总统承担总统职务的权力和责任。”

Put simply, the vice-president and the cabinet could mount a coup against a sitting president seen as unfit to carry out his or her duties. The intent of the amendment was to deal with a situation when the president was incapacitated by, say, ill health. But the wording looks sufficiently open to allow a broad interpretation of such incapacity. That anyway is what was being said by members of Mr Trump’s own party in the bars of Munich.

简言之，即副总统和内阁可以对被认为不适合履职的现任总统发动政变。该修正案的本意是为了应对总统无法履职的情况，比如说因健康原因。但其措辞看起来足够开放，以至于可对无法履职的情形作出宽泛解释。总之，这正是特朗普所在共和党的成员在慕尼黑酒馆里所谈论的。

There is a catch — or rather a safety net. The removed president could appeal to the Congress. And for the sacking to stand, the vice-president and cabinet would need to marshall a two-thirds majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. That is a pretty high bar — and one that nobody seems ready to risk any time soon. Nor does Mike Pence, who offered a self-consciously loyal speech at the conference, carry the air of a vice-president with a dagger concealed in his sleeve.

这里还有一个玄机——或者更确切地说，是一道安全网。被解除职务的总统可以向国会申诉。要维持罢免决定，副总统和内阁必须在参、众两院都获得三分之二的多数支持。这是一个相当高的门槛，高到近期内似乎没有人甘冒此风险。在慕尼黑会议上自觉发表忠诚演讲的副总统迈克?彭斯(Mike Pence)，也没有表露出“袖里藏刀”的迹象。

But if the thought of deposing Mr Trump only weeks into his term of office seems excitable, the simple fact of the many conversations in Munich about the 25th amendment was a measure of the mounting alarm within his own party about the president’s fitness for office. Beyond Mr Trump’s alternative facts, downright falsehoods and increasingly hysterical attacks on the media, and the separate concerns about contacts with Vladimir Putin’s Russian regime, stories abound about his chaotic and eccentric working habits.

但是，如果说在特朗普上任仅几周就将其罢免的想法令人兴奋的话，慕尼黑出现与第25修正案相关的诸多讨论的简单事实，反映出特朗普本党内部关于其是否适合履职的不断加剧的担忧。除了“替代事实”、公然说谎、日益歇斯底里地抨击媒体以及人们担忧其与弗拉基米尔?普京(Vladimir Putin)的俄罗斯政权之间有联系以外，还有大量关于特朗普混乱、异乎寻常的工作习惯的故事。

Oval Office meetings are conducted with the television still blaring and the president frequently distracted, Mr Trump’s attention span rarely extends beyond a few minutes, and briefing papers are restricted to a few bullet points (preferably illustrated).

椭圆形办公室里开会时电视开得很大声而且总统经常分心，特朗普集中注意力的时间一般只能持续几分钟，简报文件被限制到只罗列出几处要点（最好有图解）。

The president is also said to be in direct conflict with James Mattis, the defence secretary, and Rex Tillerson, the secretary of state, about appointments to their departments. Stephen Bannon, the extreme nationalist who serves as Mr Trump’s head of strategy, is accused of building an alternative network of loyalists to undermine decisions taken by the cabinet.

据称，特朗普还与国防部长詹姆斯?马蒂斯(James Mattis)及国务卿雷克斯?蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)在他们各自部门的一些任命问题上发生了直接冲突。特朗普的首席战略师、极端民族主义者斯蒂芬?班农(Stephen Bannon)，被指建立了一个由忠诚者组成的替代网络，破坏内阁做出的决策。

So is it plausible to think of a cabinet coup. No one that I spoke to in Munich was making any firm predictions. But few were prepared to say with confidence that Mr Trump will serve a full four-year term.

因此，有关内阁政变的想法似乎是很有道理的。在慕尼黑与我交谈过的人士中，没人给出任何肯定预测。但也没多少人会肯定地表示特朗普能做满四年任期。