生命在于折腾: 金氏父子的核游戏

It is quite a feat to make South Koreans feel nostalgic about Kim Jong-il – but his son appears to have managed it.

让韩国人怀念金正日(Kim Jong-il)绝非易事，但他的儿子似乎做到了。

A common charge against the late North Korean leader was that he used provocations as bait to secure negotiations and aid from the US and South Korea. Within weeks of Pyongyang’s first nuclear test in 2006 the regime was in talks to suspend the programme in return for a resumption of US fuel shipments.

这位已故朝鲜领导人常被指责以挑衅为诱饵，换取谈判机会和美韩援助。2006年朝鲜首次进行核试验，几周后便坐到谈判桌前，以暂停核计划为代价重新获得美国的燃料供应。

Such deals have been condemned as appeasement by critics in Washington and Seoul. But if the Dear Leader’s approach sparked resentment, that has changed to alarm at Kim Jong-eun’s apparent determination to build a nuclear deterrent.

美国和韩国的批评人士谴责这种交易是绥靖政策。但如果说“亲爱领袖”的手法引发愤怒的话，愤怒已经转化为担心——因为金正恩似乎执意要建立核威慑。

After a month of warnings of imminent war, North Korea has, in effect, rejected suggestions of talks from the US. Dialogue can only happen, the powerful National Defence Commission said last week, once the US secures the removal of sanctions against Pyongyang and removes Korea from its nuclear umbrella – conditions totally unacceptable to Washington, as Mr Kim well knows.

朝鲜在过去一个月内不断发出战争迫在眉睫的警告，实际上已经拒绝了美国的谈判建议。势力强大的朝鲜国防委员会(National Defence Commission)上周表示，只有美国解除对朝制裁，并将韩国剔除出它的“核保护伞”，才有对话可能。而金正恩十分清楚，这些条件是美国完全无法接受的。

The US has conditions of its own and is wary of being seen to come running when Pyongyang shouts. It wants North Korea to abide by previous promises to suspend its nuclear programme.

美国有自己的条件，并且不愿给外界造成“朝鲜发令、美国起跑”的印象。美国希望朝鲜遵守先前的承诺，暂停核计划。

But that could be just as unrealistic as North Korea’s own demands. Kim Jong-il, at least outwardly, declared his desire to “denuclearise” the peninsula. Kim Jong-eun has enshrined nuclear weapons in the nation’s constitution.

但这种希望可能与朝鲜的要求一样不现实。金正日至少在表面上表达出半岛无核化的意愿，金正恩却将拥有核武器写入朝鲜宪法。

Officials in Seoul worry that the young leader’s inexperience adds a new dimension of risk. Kim Jong-il was presented to the ruling party as the nation’s next leader in 1974, and gradually assumed power over the following two decades before officially taking office at 51. Kim Jong-eun had just 15 months to get ready, and is believed to be only 30, at most.

韩国官员担心，年轻的金正恩缺乏经验会增加新的风险。金正日在1974年被执政党确立为朝鲜下一任领导人，他在接下来20年内不断接过权力，最后在51岁时正式就职。金正恩只有15个月的准备时间，而且据称他最多只有30岁。

In Washington, there is a “wistful” feeling about Kim Jong-il’s reign, says Jonathan Pollack of the Brookings Institution. “There seems to be a sense he knew the way out of these situations,” he says.

美国布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)的乔纳森•波拉克(Jonathan Pollack)认为，美国“怀念”金正日执掌朝鲜时期。他表示：“人们似乎觉得金正日知道化解这类危局的出路。”

It is possible, as some analysts suggest, that North Korea’s recent long-range rocket launch, nuclear test and ominous predictions of war have all been aimed at precipitating potentially lucrative negotiations that it secretly craves. Similarly, its angry rejection of talks on “the eve of war” could be part of a drive to bolster the younger Kim’s image as a martial leader during the continuing US-South Korea exercises. The rhetoric may cool after April 30 when the two-month-long war drills – which Pyongyang calls preparation for an invasion – draw to a close.

一些分析人士表示，朝鲜近期发射远程火箭、进行核试验、发表危言耸听的战争言论，可能都以促成谈判为目标，能带来潜在利益的谈判正是朝鲜私下里梦寐以求的。类似的是，在美韩联合军演尚未结束时，朝鲜愤怒地拒绝“战前”谈判，可能是旨在提升金正恩的军事领导人形象。当为期两个月的军演（朝方称这是为侵略做准备）于4月30日结束后，朝鲜的出格言论或许将有所冷却。

But it also seems likely that North Korea’s nuclear progress has shifted its assessment of risks and rewards. December’s successful satellite launch brought it closer to building intercontinental missiles, and February’s nuclear test appears to have been the most powerful yet. Over the past four decades, North Korea’s on-off programme has been gradually moving towards a functioning nuclear weapon, and that goal must now appear closer than ever.

但另一种可能是，朝鲜核计划的进展改变了其对风险与回报的权衡。去年12月，朝鲜成功发射卫星，距离制造洲际导弹又近了一步。今年2月的核试验似乎是威力最强大的一次。过去40年里，朝鲜时断时续的核计划正逐步向开发出具备实战能力核武器的方向迈进，而如今看来肯定比以往更接近了这一目标。

But it is probably still years away. Suggestions that Pyongyang can already fit a nuclear warhead on to a missile are speculative, as Barack Obama has noted . So it is possible that Mr Kim will soften his stance to avoid further sanctions and potentially attract economic assistance, at least for a while.

但实现目标可能还需数年。正如巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)所说，有关朝鲜已能用导弹搭载核弹头的言论纯属猜测。因此，金正恩可能将至少在一段时间内软化立场，以避免进一步制裁，吸引潜在经济援助。

If Washington’s conditions for talks prove too much for Pyongyang to swallow it might find a negotiating partner in Seoul. Park Geun-hye, South Korea’s new president, made much during her campaign of her desire to improve relations with Pyongyang.

如果美国开出的谈判条件令朝鲜难以接受，朝鲜或许会试图把韩国作为谈判伙伴。韩国新任总统朴槿惠(Park Geun-hye)在竞选时充分表达了改善朝韩关系的意愿。

If she does come to the table, it would come as a relief to those who fear this diplomatic crisis could turn violent. It would also be straight out of the Kim Jong-il playbook.

如果朴槿惠确实能与朝鲜谈判，担心外交危机演变为暴力行动的人便能长舒一口气。这也完全符合金正日的策略。尽管先前有人期待金正恩成为一位朝气蓬勃的改革家，彻底革除父亲的苛政，但眼下人们的希望却变成了“有其父必有其子”。