人们生活中10大思维误区(图)

The human mind is a wonderful thing. Cognition, the act or process of thinking, enables us to process vast amounts of information quickly. For example, every time your eyes are open, you brain is constantly being bombarded with stimuli. You may be consciously thinking about one specific thing, but you brain is processing thousands of subconscious ideas. Unfortunately, our cognition is not perfect, and there are certain judgment errors that we are prone to making, known in the field of psychology as cognitive biases. They happen to everybody regardless of age, gender, education, intelligence, or other factors. Some of them are well known, others not, but all of them are interesting. I am sure everyone will find that one has happened to them, (I myself have been prone to several) and now will recognize when they are making an error in the future.

人类的思维很奇妙。思考的过程是认识，能够帮助我们很快的从很多信息找到我们想要的。举例来说，每时每刻你的眼睛是睁着的，你的大脑每时每刻在被大量的信息所刺激。但你能够专心的思想一件事，虽然你的大脑正在处理成千上万的下意识的事情。不幸的是，我们的认识力还不够完美，所以我们很容易犯一些固定模式的错误。众所周知在一些心理学的认识偏见里。这些发生在每个人身上，不会因年龄，性别，教育，智商或其他因素而不同。一些是我们熟知的，但也有些不是，不过很多都很有意思。肯定一些会在我们身边的一些人身上发生（我本人就有好几个），在以后发生的时候我们可以验证一下。

10Gambler’s Fallacy

The Gambler’s fallacy is the tendency to think that future probabilities are altered by past events, when in reality, they are not. Certain probabilities, such as getting a heads when you flip a (fair) coin, are always the same. The probability of getting a heads is 50%, it does not matter if you’ve gotten tails the last 10 flips. Thinking that theprobabilities have changed is a common bias, especially when gambling. For example, I am playing roulette. The last four spins have landed on black, it has to be red this time right? Wrong! The probability of landing on red is still 47.37% (18 red spots divided by 38 total spots). This may sound obvious, but this bias has caused many a gambler to lose money thinking theprobabilities have changed.

10赌徒的谬论

赌徒的谬论是指过去发生的事情会影响未来事件的发生，但是事实上，不是这样的。举个例子，当你投一枚正常的硬币时，出现头像的概率总是50%，这些固定的概率不会因为连续出现了10次背面而改变。认为这些会改变是一种常见的偏见，尤其是在赌博的时候。当我在玩赌博轮的时候，最后4个数字全是黑的，那么下次会是红的？错！出现红的概率还是47.37％（18个红区和38个黑区）。这个听起来明显，但是未来会改变的偏见已经让很多赌徒输钱了。

9Reactivity

Reactivity is the tendency of people to act or appear differently when they know that they are being observed. In the 1920s, Hawthorne Works (a manufacturing facility) commissioned a study to see if different levels of light influenced worker productivity. What they found was incredible, changing the light caused productivity to soar! Unfortunately, when the study was finished, productivity levels decreased to their regular levels. This was because the change in productivity was not due to the light levels, but to the workers being watched. This demonstrated a form of reactivity; when individuals know they are being watched, they are motivated to change their behavior, generally to make themselves look better. Reactivity is a serious problem in research, and has to be controlled in blind experiments (“Blind” is when individuals involved in a research study are purposely withheld information so as not to influence the outcomes).

9反映

反应是指当人们发觉他们被观察的时候会表现的与众不同。在19世纪20年代，Hawthorne Works（一家生产企业）做了一个实验，来看看在不同的光线条件下员工的生产率。他们的发现难以置信，光线的改变增加了很多生产力！可惜当这个研究被完成的时候，实验生产力低于他们的正常生产力。不是因为光线没有在最合适的水平，而是因为员工发现他们被观察了，他们就改变了他们的行为模式，为了使他们看上去更好看。在研究中反应是一个很严肃的问题，而且已经在盲人实验中使用了。（盲人是指，当个体在被进行实验时，他们被要求不要因外界条件的改变而改变）

8Pareidolia

Pareidolia is when random images or sounds are perceived as significant. Seeing clouds in the shapes of dinosaurs, Jesus on a hot pocket, or hearing messages when a record is played backward are common examples of pareidolia. The common element is that the stimulus is neutral, it does not have intentional meaning; the meaning is in the viewer’s perception.

Interesting Fact: the Rorschach Inkblot test was developed to use pareidolia to tap into people’s mental states. Testees are shown images of ambiguous pictures, and asked to describe what they see. Responses are analyzed to discover the testee’s hidden thoughts.

8空想性视觉

空想性视觉是指在感觉上随机出现的图片和声音，就好像看到了一样。在云上看到恐龙的形状，在一种流行的口袋上看到上帝，或者在背景有信息在播放时，好像听到信息了似的。这些都是空想性行为的常见例子。这个共同的特征就是这个刺激是中立的，并没有特殊的意思，没有观察者的感觉在内。

有趣的现象，RorschachInkblot test是用空想性行为来帮助人们记忆。实验是用一些不清楚的图片，来问别人他们看到了什么，实验者的反应被用来发现他们隐藏着的信息。

7Self-fulfilling Prophecy

Self-fulfilling prophecy is engaging in behaviors that obtain results that confirm existing attitudes. A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that causes itself to become true. For example, I believe that I am going to do poorly in school, so I decrease the effort I put into my assignments and studying, and I end up doing poorly, just as I thought. Another common example is relationships; I think my relationship with my significant other is going to fail, so I start acting differently, pulling away emotionally. Because of my actions, I actually cause the relationship to fail. This is a powerful tool used by “psychics” – they implant an idea in your mind, and you eventually make it happen because you think it will.

Interesting Fact: Economic Recessions are self-fulfilling prophecies. Because a recession is 2 quarters of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decline, you cannot know you are in a recession until you are at least 6 months into one. Unfortunately, at the first sign of decreasing GDP, the media reports a possible recession, people panic and start a chain of events that actually cause a recession.

7 自我实现的预言

自我实现的预言是说在一些既定的想法下事情真的会发生。一个自我实现的预言就是会实现的真的预言。举个例子，我相信我在学校里会变穷，所以我就减少了开支，而且努力学习，最后我还是和我想的一样变穷了。另一个常见的例子是有关关系的：我想我和其他人之间的关系会变差，于是我就开始下意识做一些不同的事。正是因为我的这些行为，真的使我们关系变差了。这个在心理学上被广泛运用了—他们在你心里做出暗示，那么那件事就真的会发生，因为你认为它会发生。

有趣的现象：经济衰退就是一件自我实现的预言。因为衰退指国内生产总值（GDP）减少一半,直到最后6个月的时候你才会发现自己处于衰退之中。不幸的是，因为看到了GDP的减少，媒体报道了衰退的可能性，人们就开始恐慌，然后引发了一系列的事情，最后导致经济衰退。

6Halo effect

The Halo effect is the tendency for an individual’s positive or negative trait to “spill over” to other areas of their personality in others’ perceptions of them. This bias happens a lot in employee performance appraisals. For example: my employee, Biff, has been late to work the past three days; I notice this and conclude that Biff is lazy and does not care about his job. There are many possible reasons why Biff was late, perhaps his car broke down, his babysitter did not show up, or there has been bad weather. The problem is, because of one negative aspect that may be out of Biff’s control, I assume that he is a bad worker.

Interesting Fact: The Physical Attractiveness Stereotype is when people assume that attractive individuals possess other socially desirable qualities, such as happiness, success and intelligence. This becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy when attractive people are given privileged treatment such as better job opportunities and higher salaries.

6 晕轮效应

晕轮效应就是说一个人积极或消极的特点会“传播”给其他人，影响其他人的感觉。这一偏见在评估员工表现的时候会发生。我的员工Biff已经有3天迟到了，我注意到这一现象，得出结论Biff懒惰而且不关心自己的工作。有很多Biff的理由，大概他的车子抛锚了，他的看孩子的那个临时工没有是上班，要么是天气原因。但问题是，因为很多不能被Biff控制的消极原因，我认为Biff是个坏员工。

有趣的现象：吸引人的行为固定模式是，当人们假设吸引人的个体有其他人所没有的特征，像开心，成功，和聪明之类的。这就会是一个自我实现的预言，那么这些就会有一些特殊的待遇，像更好的工作机会或更高的收入。

5Herd Mentality

Herd mentality is the tendency to adopt the opinions and follow the behaviors of the majority to feel safer and to avoid conflict. Also known as “Mob Mentality,” this is, at its most common form, peer pressure. Herd mentality explains why fads get so popular. Clothes, cars, hobbies, styles, all it takes is a group of people who think something is cool, and it catches on.

Interesting Fact: things that are unattractive, or that would never seem cool or popular now have had huge followings due to herd mentality. Examples include parachute pants, pet rocks, mullets, cone bras, tie-dye, sea monkeys, and the 1980s (by the way, that is an ’80s guy in the picture above).

5 从众心理

从众效应是指跟随或采取和大多数人一样的行为来使自己感觉安全或避免争斗的一种趋势。大家都知道的“暴动效应”就是在一般的行为模式，同龄人的压力下发生的。从众效应解释了时尚会流行原因。像衣服，车子，爱好，风格。所有的一切都是在一群认为这很酷，而且付诸实践的人身上发生的。

有趣的现象：一些不吸引人，从不显得酷或流行的事情因为从众效应现在有了一大群跟随者，降落伞裤，宠物石，胭脂鱼发型，锥臂，染发，海猴子，还有80后都是很好的例子。（上图就是一80后）

4Reactance

Reactance is the urge to do the opposite of what someone wants you to do out of a need to resist a perceived attempt to constrain your freedom of choice. This is common with rebellious teenagers, but any attempt to resist authority due to perceived threats to freedom and/or choice is reactance. The individual may not have a need to do the specific behavior, however the fact that they cannot do it makes them want to.

Interesting Fact: “reverse psychology” is an attempt to influence people using reactance. Tell someone (particularly children) to do the opposite of what you really want, and they will rebel and actually end up doing what you want.

4反抗

反抗就是说和其他人希望我们做的反着做，或者说你希望是按着自己的选择而其他人想要你去做其他事。这些在叛逆期的青少年中很常见，但是因为对于自由的选择，而又任何想要来反对权威的倒行逆施，就是反抗。个体可能不需要有一些特别的行为，而是他们不能做从而导致他们很想得到这些。

有趣的事实：“逆向心理方法”是一种使用反抗来影响别人的方法。告诉对象（尤其是孩子）做和你实际上想干的相反的事，然后他们就会反抗，最终就会做你其实想要的事。

3Hyperbolic Discounting

Hyperbolic discounting is the tendency for people to prefer a smaller, immediate payoff over a larger, delayed payoff. Much research has been done on decision-making, and many factors contribute to the individual decision making process. Interestingly, delay time is a big factor in choosing an alternative. Put simply, most people would choose to get 20 dollars today instead of getting 100 dollars one year from today. Normally it makes sense to choose a greater amount of money immediately than less in the future, as the value of a dollar is worth more today than it is tomorrow. Assume that the interest rate is 9%, at this interest rate, a rational person would be indifferent to taking $91.74 now, or $100 a year from now. However, it is interesting how much less we are willing to take immediately rather than wait, would you rather have $100 a year from now, or $50 immediately? How about $40 immediately? Where do you draw the line?

3双曲线贴现

双曲线贴现是指人们更倾向于小额的，现时的支付而不是后来大笔的支付的倾向。很多研究表明在决策方面，有很多因素的导致个人决策过程。有意思的是，延后的时间是在做出改变的一个很主要的因素。绝大多数人希望今天能得到20美元而不是今天起1年后得到100美元。正常来说，应该马上选择钱多的一方而不是选择较少的，在未来的钱会比今天或者明天的钱更值钱，假设利率是9％，在此利率下，一个神志清楚的人会选择现在拿91.74美元，或者1年后拿100美元，然而，这一有趣的现象我们是多么想要现在拿到而不是等待一年以后。你是希望一年后拿100美元，还是现在拿50美元？那40美元呢？什么才是你的底线？

2Escalation of Commitment

Escalation of commitment is the tendency for people to continue to support previously unsuccessful endeavors. With all the decisions people have to make, it is unavoidable that some will be unsuccessful. Of course, the logical thing to do in these instances is to change that decision or try to reverse it. However, sometimes individuals feel compelled not only to stick with their decision, but also to further invest in that decision because they have sunk costs. For example, say you use half of your life savings to start a business. After 6 months, it is evident that the business is going to be unsuccessful. The logical thing to do would be to “cut your losses” and drop the business. However, due to the sunk costs of your life savings, you feel committed to the business and invest even more money into the project hoping that the additional cash will turn the business around.

2增加投入

增加投入是指人们愿意继续以前没有完成的，但付出过努力的事物的倾向。人们所做的全部决定，不可避免得会有很多不会成功。当然逻辑上这些事情将会改变决策。但是，有时候人们觉得被强迫的不仅仅是继续他们的决策，而且还要那个决策的追加投入，因为有沉没成本。举例来说，你用你半辈子的积蓄来开个公司。6个月后，显然你的公司很不成功。逻辑上讲你应该“去除你的损失”，就是说关闭企业。但是由于你的积蓄已经是沉没成本了，你觉得需要增加更多的钱来继续这家公司。并且希望这些新增投资能够使公司扭亏为盈。

1Placebo Effect

The Placebo effect is when an ineffectual substance that is believed to have healing properties produces the desired effect. Especially common with medications, the placebo effect has been observed when individuals given a sugar pill for a real ailment report improvement. Placebos are still a scientific mystery. It is theorized that placebos cause an “Expectancy Effect”, (In cases of uncertainty, expectation is what is most likely to happen) individuals expect the pills to cure their ailments, so they feel cured. However, this does not explain how the ineffectual pills actually cause a reduction in symptoms.

Interesting Fact: The term “Placebo” is used when the outcomes are considered favorable, when the outcomes are negative or harmful; the term is “Nocebo”

1 安慰剂效应

安慰剂效应是指当相信没有用的东西能够治愈某些疾病时，这些安慰剂真的能够发挥作用。

在药物当中最为常见，安慰剂效应被用来观察一些慢性病的改善，其实给患者的是糖片。安慰剂在科学上仍然是个谜。安慰剂被提出是引起“期望效果”（指那些不确定的，很期望发生的事），人们期望药片能够治疗他们的慢性病，所以他们被治好了。然而这些不能解释无效的药物实际上怎么减少不良症状的。

有趣的事实：安慰剂这一名词被用来说明当结果看起来不错时，如果结果不尽人意时，称之为“反安慰剂”。