需求决定市场 中国的商场太多了

If you want to know what many urban Chinese get up to in their spare time, here’s the answer: they go to the mall.

如果你想知道中国城市居民在闲暇之余做什么，那么答案是，他们去逛商场。

According to China Confidential, a research service from the Financial Times, two-thirds of urban consumers regularly visit s hopp ing malls, with 40.9 per cent of mall visitors going to malls at least once a week (see chart below). Based on China Confidential’s demographic analysis, that works out at about 54m visitors to Chinese malls each week, more than the population of England. And most of these visitors are not just window shopping. On average, mall visitors made nine purchases or transactions over the past six months, with total annual spending in excess of Rmb700bn ($113bn).

英国《金融时报》旗下研究服务机构《中国投资参考》(China Confidential)的数据显示，三分之二的城市消费者定期去逛商场，这些人中有40.9%至少一周去一次（见下表）。按照《中国投资参考》的人口统计分析，这相当于在中国每周有大约5400万人去逛商场，超过英格兰地区总人口。并且这些人大多还不是只逛不买。平均而言，每位消费者在过去6个月在商场进行了9次购买或交易，消费者在商场的年度支出总额超过7000亿元人民币（合1130亿美元）。

This enormous footfall and spending has unsurprisingly sparked a wave of shopping mall construction across the country in recent years.

不难预料，近年来这种巨大的客流和支出在中国各地掀起了建造商场的热潮。

China accounted for 44 per cent of total global shopping mall completions in 2014, according to real estate consultancy CBRE, with more mall space added in the central city of Wuhan alone (993,000 square metres) than in the whole of the Americas (800,000 sq m).

房地产咨询公司世邦魏理仕(CBRE)的数据显示，在2014年全球完工商场总数中，中国占到了44%，仅在中国中部城市武汉，新增商场面积（99.3万平方米）就超过了整个美国的新增商场面积（80万平方米）。

While growth in completed mall floorspace in China did moderate slightly on an annual basis last year, the amount of mallspace in the pipeline in China remains enormous. At least 24m sq m of additional mallspace is under construction nationwide, according to CBRE, accounting for over 60 per cent of global mallspace under construction.

尽管去年中国商场完工面积同比的确只是略有增长，但中国正在建设中的商场数量依然巨大。世邦魏理仕的数据显示，中国各地至少有2400万平方米的商场正在建设当中，占到全球在建商场面积的逾60%。

All of which has raised concerns about a potential overbuild of malls in China, especially as headline retail sales growth slows. This is a concern that even some industry participants share. Thirty-five per cent of mall managers reported an oversupply of malls in their area, with those in lower-tier cities markedly less positive than their counterparts in first and second-tier cities.

所有这些令人担忧中国有可能商场建设过度，尤其是在整体零售销售增长放缓之际。甚至一些业内人士也存在这种担忧。有35%的商场经理表示，自己所在区域的商场供应过度，三四线城市的商场经理远没有一二线城市的商场经理乐观。

This points to a broader contrast in performance between shopping malls in China’s largest, wealthiest cities, and those in the smaller, mostly inland cities that are the focus of much of the current wave of shopping mall construction. In first-tier cities surveyed by China Confidential, 76.5 per cent of mall managers reported positive revenue growth. By contrast, the proportion was just 62.5 per cent in second-tier cities and 43.8 per cent in third-tier cities.

这带出了另一个现象——中国最大、最富裕的城市和在大多位于内陆地区的较小城市，商场的表现有着天壤之别。后者是当前商场建造热潮的主要地点。在《中国投资参考》调查的一线城市，76.5%的商场经理表示商场营收正增长。相比之下，在二线城市和三线城市的这一比例分别只有62.5%和43.8%。

Indeed, according to China Confidential’s survey, malls in smaller cities are lagging behind their counterparts in larger cities on almost every metric: foot traffic, occupancy rates and rental yields to name a few. And the sheer volume of mallspace expected to hit the market in these cities in coming years points to rising risks for mall developers in these markets, especially should retail sales continue to slow. Some of these mall developments are likely to be lossmaking, while others may prove to be white elephants.

实际上，根据《中国投资参考》的调查，较小城市的商场在几乎所有指标上都落后于较大城市的商场：比如客流量、入驻率和租金收益。预计未来几年在这些城市将会有大量的商场供应冲击市场，这意味着这些市场中的商场开发商面临日益升高的风险，尤其是如果零售销售增长继续放缓的话。其中一些商场开发很可能出现亏损，还有一些商场事实上可能成为华丽的累赘。

But as with so many other markets in China, signs of oversupply in some markets should not be confused with a nationwide bubble. In China Confidential’s survey, 64 per cent of mall managers said their malls were profitable. Demand for the wide range of retail, dining and leisure facilities offered by shopping malls continues to grow. Furthermore, most of the slowdown in retail spending over the past year has hit older retail formats, such as department stores, which are being squeezed by the growing popularity of malls and ecommerce.

但与中国的其他许多市场一样，一些市场过度供应的迹象不应该被误会为全国都出现了泡沫。在《中国投资参考》的调查中，64%的商场经理表示，他们的商场是盈利的。对商场提供的各种零售、餐饮和娱乐设施的需求继续增长。此外，过去一年里零售支出放缓已经冲击了旧日的零售模式，比如由于综合购物中心和电子商务日渐流行而受到挤压的百货商店。

It may not be quite as simple as ‘if you build it, they will come’. But even the poster child for China’s commercial property bears — the giant New South China Mall in Dongguan, the world’s largest, which for years has been little more than a ghost mall — finally appears to be showing signs of life.

事情可能没有那么简单，不是说“建了商场就会自动有客流”。但即便是中国商业地产低迷的典范——位于东莞的全球最大综合购物中心、多年来客流稀少的新华南Mall——似乎也终于出现了复苏的迹象。

Oversupply in lower-tier markets in particular is clearly a concern. But Chinese demand for shopping malls as a retail format is strong and growing. In this context, the scale of buildout in China seems rather more rational than the headline numbers may suggest.

三四线城市的过度供应尤其令人担忧。但中国人对商场这种购物模式的需求强劲，而且还在不断增长之中。在这种背景下，中国的商场建造热潮似乎远比整体数据所显示的要理性。