Boeing has forecast that China will overtake the US as the world’s largest aviation market, extending a surge in single-aisle aircraft demand. Randy Tinseth, a Boeing vice-president, said the reordering of the market would occur by 2033. Chinese air travel, as measured by revenue passenger kilometres, is only about half as large as the US and Canada’s combined. In its annual China market forecast, Boeing projected that Chinese airlines would buy 6,000 aircraft worth $870bn in the next 20 years, with single-aisle aircraft accounting for more than two-thirds of demand. The size of China’s fleet is expected to triple, to about 7,000 aircraft, over the same period. Boeing’s previous forecasts have underestimated purchases of single-aisle aircraft. “I don’t think we anticipated the demand in emerging economies and from low-cost carriers,” said Mr Tinseth, whose forecast echoes similar predictions by rival Airbus. The growth of low-cost China carriers is expected to be an important source of demand. In July, China Eastern became the first of the big three airlines to launch a budget carrier. Boeing also expects new international routes to spur sales of the 787 Dreamliner. China Southern and Hainan Airlines took deliveries of their first Dreamliners last year, with Hainan deploying it on a new service from Beijing to Boston. Boeing has not outlined any plans to manufacture aircraft in the country, while China’s own Comac has struggled with product delays. “China is trying to do [what Airbus did in 40 years] in an accelerated manner,” Mr Tinseth said. 波音(Boeing)预测，中国将取代美国成为世界最大的航空市场，单通道客机将因此在更长时间内面临需求激增的局面。 波音副总裁兰迪•廷塞斯(Randy Tinseth)说，市场规模排名的这一变化将发生在2033年。按客公里收入(RPK)计算，中国的民航运量仅约为美国和加拿大之和的一半。 波音在其对中国市场的年度预测中预计，中国的航空公司会在未来20年里购买6000架客机，总值8700亿美元，其中单通道客机占总需求的三分之二以上。 同期，中国的机队规模将扩大至现在的3倍，达到7000架。波音此前的预测低估了单通道客机的购买量。“我认为我们没有预计到新兴经济体和低成本航空公司的需求，”廷塞斯说。他的预测呼应了波音竞争对手空客(Airbus)做出的类似预测。 低成本航空公司的增长预计将成为需求的重要来源。7月份，中国东方航空(China Eastern)成为中国三大航空公司中首家设立廉价航空公司的公司。 波音还预测，新的国际航线将刺激波音787梦幻客机(787 Dreamliner)的销售。 中国南方航空(China Southern)和海南航空(Hainan Airlines)去年接收了它们的首批梦幻客机机型，海航将其用于北京至波士顿的新航班上。 波音还没有拟定任何在中国生产飞机的计划，中国本土的中国商用飞机公司(Comac)则在努力解决产品延迟交付的问题。“中国正在努力以一种加速的方式完成（空客在过去40年完成的工作），”廷塞斯说。
