PC的身份危机
The question "What is a PC?" has been bemusing analysts and industry observers since long before the introduction of the iPad -- but especially since. The answer is not so simple. In some ways, it's a question of mere rhetoric. But when it comes to analyzing markets and companies, it becomes a lot more than that.
“什么是PC？”——虽然这个问题早在iPad问世之前就已经让分析人士和业内观察人士困扰多时，但iPad的问世使他们的困扰陡然加深。这个问题并不是简简单单就能回答得了的。从某种程度上讲，讨论它只是浪费口舌，但是要想分析市场行情和公司业绩，这个问题又非同小可。Tablets and smartphones have been cutting into PC sales for years. That's because for many people, the newer gadgets do everything they had previously counted on PCs -- including laptops -- for: email, Web browsing, watching video. But in general, they don't do everything that powerful PCs can do or not quite as well, such as video editing, hardcore gaming, programming. Many consumers still want or need a laptop or a desktop machine.
多年来，平板电脑和智能手机一直在挤占PC的销售市场。这是因为，对于很多人来说，这些新潮而精巧的小机器已经具备他们需要的所有PC（包括笔记本电脑）功能，比如收发邮件、浏览网页、观看视频。但是总体上讲，它们有些功能还无法与强大的PC相匹敌，比如视频剪辑、发烧游戏和编程。很多消费者依然想要、或者需要一台笔记本或台式机。It might sound silly at first to define a smartphone as a "PC." But lots of people who otherwise might have purchased a PC have opted instead for a smartphone, since it does everything they in particular need from a computing device. That's even more true of tablets -- and it will be increasingly so as the differences between tablets, even phones, and PCs narrow. Soon enough, many of us will be carrying the equivalent of a PC around with us to use as a tablet when we're mobile, and then plugging it in at home, attaching it to a keyboard, and using it as a fully functional PC.
把智能手机定义为“PC”乍听之下或许有些愚蠢。但是很多潜在的PC买家之所以没有买PC，而是买了智能手机，就是因为他们需要计算设备实现的所有功能，智能手机都已经具备。至于平板电脑，那就更不用说了——而且它还会越来越受欢迎，因为平板电脑同PC的差异一直在缩小（甚至手机也是如此）。用不了多久，我们当中就会有很多人出门带着PC的替代品当平板电脑使，回到家后就把它插上电源、接上键盘，这样它就变成了一台功能齐全的PC。
Hardware and software makers may have helped blur the distinction. Microsoft's (MSFT) new Windows 8 operating system can be operated like a traditional desktop PC or via a tablet-like interface that is compatible with touch and gestures. Apple's (AAPL) Mac OS, meanwhile, has adopted some features of iOS, the operating system powering millions of iPads, iPods, and iPhones, though the company doesn't currently sell any touchscreen enabled desktops or laptops. And beleaguered hardware manufacturers have adopted touchscreen technology and ultrathin packages that draw from both tablets and laptops. These so-called convertible laptops, like Lenovo's Ideapad Yoga, double as both because their screens can be flipped back and forth.
平板电脑与PC的界限之所以一天天变得模糊，硬件和软件制造商或许也起到了推波助澜的作用。微软（Microsoft）新推出的Windows 8操作系统既可以安装在传统的笔记本PC上，也可以安装在与手势触控兼容的平板界面上。苹果（Apple）的Mac OS操作系统也融入了iOS的一些特性，而iOS是让数以百万计的iPad、iPod和iPhone发挥强大功能的操作系统。不过，目前苹果公司尚未推出任何可触屏的笔记本或台式机。硬件制造商在竞争对手的围追堵截下则纷纷借鉴平板电脑和笔记本，采用触屏科技和超薄封装。这些所谓的翻转本，比如联想（Lenovo）的Ideapad Yoga，既可以做笔记本，也可以当平板电脑，因为它们的屏幕可以360度翻转。For the moment, the PC is confused. Consider how market researchers and stock analysts often measure the computer market. Last year, the research firm Canalys declared that Apple had become the world's largest maker of PCs. But that was only because the firm included tablets (which it called "pads") in its findings. "Pads," Canalys said, made up about a quarter of all sales of PCs.
现在，人们对PC的概念已是一头雾水。想想市场研究公司和证券分析师是怎么衡量计算机市场行情的吧。去年，市场研究公司Canalys宣布，苹果已成为全球最大的PC制造商，但这只是把平板电脑（也就是它所说的“pad”）算进PC中的结果。Canalys表示，“Pad”的销量占所有PC销量的四分之一左右。Not surprisingly, the Canalys report got lots of attention and stirred much debate. Harry McCracken of Time magazine took the opportunity to poll his readers to find out what they thought. He added his own analysis and decided that a device is a PC if it meets the following criteria: It run apps; it is general-purpose (and not meant for singular uses, like a game console); it is meant to be used by one person at a time.
不出意外，Canalys的报告引起了很大的关注，也引发了一场热议。《时代》周刊（Time ）编辑哈里?麦克拉肯借机发起了投票，调查读者的想法。他还附上了自己的分析，认为一台设备如果符合下述条件，就可以称为PC：第一，它能运行应用程序；第二，它具备多种用途（而不是像游戏机这样的专用机器）；第三，它适合个人使用。He then took a leap and said a PC can be "any size," meaning smartphones can count. But that assumption distorts the market for the simple reason that most people who own smartphones also own a PC or a tablet. Similarly, there are those who buy a tablet in addition to a PC, and others who buy them instead of a new PC. Granular analyses are needed to get a full handle on how and to what degree both tablets and phones are supplanting what most people think of as traditional PCs, and to what degree such devices are purchased as supplements to PCs. (Macs of course are included in the definition of PC, unless it's clear from context that they're being differentiated from machines running Windows.)
他接着做出了大胆的假设，说PC可以是“任何尺寸”，也就是说智能手机也可以算作PC的一种。但是这个假设扭曲了市场。原因很简单，那就是大多数智能手机用户同时也拥有PC或者平板电脑。同样，有些人买了PC之后也还是会买平板电脑，还有些人PC用旧了也不去换新的，而是去买平板电脑。我们还需要进行粒化分析（粒就是指一些个体通过不分明关系、相似关系、邻近关系或功能关系等所形成的块。这种处理信息的过程．称信息粒化。——译注），以了解平板电脑和手机究竟是以何种方式、在何种程度上挤占传统PC的市场，以及有多少人会购买这类设备来补充PC的局限。（苹果机当然也是PC的一种，除非有什么前提可以明确表明它们与Windows系统的机器有所不同。）Since the Canalys report was issued, the confusion has only deepened both because researchers define the market differently and because the gulf between PCs and tablets is quickly narrowing. That confusion sometimes makes it hard to measure various market trends. A Bank of America Merrill Lynch report on search-engine use in January had to rely on numbers solely from (traditional) PCs because comparable data on mobile searches wasn't available. Is it even meaningful to note that searches on the four major search services -- Google (GOOG), Bing (MSFT), Yahoo (YHOO), and Ask -- rose by 9% in January from the previous year, when mobile data isn't included? "Unfortunately we do not have mobile query data to see the full picture for query growth," BofA's note read. So the report threw in the fact that some search advertisers estimated that mobile searches made up about 15% of the total.
自从Canalys的报告发布后，人们对PC的概念更加困惑了。一方面是因为不同的研究人员对市场的定义不同，另一方面是因为PC和平板电脑的区别在迅速缩小。这种概念上的含混不清使我们难以估测各种各样的市场趋势。美银美林（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）今年1月发布的搜索引擎使用报告只有唯一的一个数据来源，那就是（传统）PC，因为无法获取移动设备搜索引擎的参照数据。如果不把移动设备的数据算进去，就算得出结论，宣称今年1月四大搜索引擎——谷歌（Google）、必应（Bing）、雅虎（Yahoo）和Ask——的搜索数量同比增长了9%，又有什么意义呢？“不幸的是，我们没有移动设备的搜索数据，无法反映搜索数量增长的全景。”美银在注解中解释。于是，这份报告附带地提到了一个事实：据一些搜索引擎广告商估计，移动设备的搜索数量约占搜索总量的15%。The distinction between PCs and mobile devices remains important for analyzing other allied industries as well. The market for chips that run mobile devices is quite different from the market for chips that run PCs. A Morningstar report this month noted that chipmaker AMD's (AMD) recent troubles are in part due to the "headwinds" it faces thanks to "rapid tablet adoption." Meanwhile, Intel (INTC), which is dominant in desktop PCs, is coming under increasing pressure to show results in its mobile chip sales.
有效区分PC和移动设备对于分析其他配套行业也很重要。移动设备的芯片市场和PC的芯片市场区别很大。晨星公司（Morningstar）这个月发布的一份报告表明，芯片制造商AMD最近之所以麻烦缠身，部分原因在于“平板电脑迅速普及”带来的困境。无独有偶，在PC台式机市场占据统治地位的英特尔（Intel），为了在移动设备的芯片市场做出一番业绩，也面临着日益沉重的压力。But when looking at the market as a whole, sans all these complicating factors, the trend is clear: Over the five years leading up to the release of the iPad two years ago, sales of traditional PCs and laptops grew anywhere between 5% and 15% a year, depending on the year and data source. Last year, sales declined about 5%, and a similar decline is forecast for next year. Over the 2012 holiday gift season, PC sales declined by between 6% and 10% over the previous year (again, depending on whose data you believe), even as the economy was recovering. Tablet sales leaped by between 60% and 80% during the season. Lots of people are buying tablets and forgoing traditional PCs.
但是如果我们把这些错综复杂的要素一概剔除，纵观市场全局，那么市场的趋势就显而易见了：两年前，iPad问世。在此之前的五年时间里，传统PC和笔记本的年销量增长在5%和15%之间，具体的增长率取决于年份和数据来源。去年，传统PC和笔记本的销量下跌了5%，预计明年还会有类似幅度的下跌。2012年全年的节假旺季，尽管经济在复苏，PC的销量依然同比下跌了6%到10%（具体跌幅还是取决于大家各自采信的数据来源）。同一时期，平板电脑的销量暴涨了60%到80%。很多人开始购买平板电脑，而对传统PC弃之不顾。That trend will continue. Over the coming months, more-powerful hybrid and convertible tablets will be coming on the market, and it seems clear that in just a few years time the differences between tablets and PCs will be negligible, at least from a consumer's point of view, though there will still be a market for traditional PCs for certain computing tasks.
这个趋势还会继续下去。接下来的几个月，更强大的滑盖式、翻转式平板电脑将陆续上市。显然，不出几年，平板电脑和PC之间的区别将变得微乎其微，至少在消费者的眼中是如此。当然，传统PC也还是会有市场，因为人们需要用它完成特定的计算任务。
