科技资讯:微软Surface能否走红?

Microsoft's Surface tablet is, for now, aptly named. We know what the product looks like, but don't know how it will perform, or sell, until it gets into consumers' hands. Reviewers can only debate the features (USB port; kickstand; thin keyboard; whoop-de-doo) and analysts will resort to new forms of bet-hedging ("execution will be key").

眼下来看，微软(Microsoft)Surface平板电脑的名字很贴切。我们知道产品长什么样，但在它到消费者手中之前，我们不知道它的性能或销量如何。评论者只能辩论各种功能（USB接口；支架；薄键盘；诸如此类），而分析师将求助于可进可退的新套话（"执行将是关键"）。

And the tablet has to perform beautifully because of an ugly catch 22: mobile devices become popular with consumers largely because of the available applications, but app developers only work on devices that are popular with consumers. The fact that it will run Microsoft Office's software suite, with which cubicle dwellers worldwide are sentenced to spend their days, does not mean Surface can crack this problem.

这款平板电脑必须有出色的表现，原因在于一对可恶的矛盾：一方面，移动设备能否受到消费者欢迎，在很大程度上要看可获得的应用程序有多少；另一方面，应用开发者只针对人气较高的设备开发应用。虽然Surface将运行全世界白领员工不得不使用的微软Office套装软件，但这并不意味着这款平板电脑能够解决上述矛盾。

Pricing will also be crucial. Microsoft's Lumia smartphone, released with Nokia, proved that a solid product with differentiating features can still struggle with consumers, especially if it is too dear. Microsoft, because it is making the Surface under its own brand, will have complete control of price. So far, it has said only that prices will be "competitive" with existing products. Why not discount aggressively, to break open the market? Assuming a $400 cost for the lower-end Windows RT version, the company could sell 10m of them at $300 (a big discount over the cheapest iPad) while sacrificing all of 4 per cent of pre-tax income.

定价也将很关键。微软与诺基亚(Nokia)合作打造的Lumia智能手机表明，有着与众不同功能的优秀产品，仍有可能难以获得消费者的青睐，尤其是如果这款产品很贵的话。由于微软借助自己的品牌推出Surface，因此该公司对定价有着完全的控制权。迄今微软仅表示，Surface的价格与现有产品相比将"具有竞争力"。为什么不推出咄咄逼人的折扣来打开市场呢？假设低端Windows RT版本的成本是400美元，那么微软能够以300美元（比最便宜的iPad还便宜很多）的价格销售1000万台，同时牺牲全部4%的税前利润。

Consumers tend to equate price and value, and Microsoft has a fledgling brand to protect. More important, Microsoft must consider the global PC makers, from Hewlett-Packardto Lenovo. They will not make Windows tablets if they are competing against a subsidised Surface. Microsoft will have to think carefully before alienating the partners who have helped make their software franchise one of the most profitable businesses of all time.

消费者往往把价格和价值等同起来，而微软也需要保护初生的Surface品牌。更重要的是，微软必须考虑从惠普(Hewlett-Packard)到联想(Lenovo)的全球个人电脑(PC)制造商。若要与得到补贴的Surface展开竞争，他们将不会生产Windows平板电脑。在疏远那些让微软软件成为史上盈利最丰厚行业之一的合作伙伴之前，微软需要三思而行。