呼唤美国的马克龙
Oh, for an American Macron! Why isn’t it possible in the US for a presidential candidate to leave his or her party and run as the representative of a new movement, and win? Why can’t Americans just reshuffle their political landscape and build a new majority?
呼唤美国的马克龙(Macron)！美国总统候选人为什么没有可能退出所在政党、然后代表一个新的运动参选并获胜？美国人为什么不能对政治版图进行洗牌，构建新的多数？We know the answer. France has a parliamentary system with a strong president, whereas the US’s winner-takes-all elections and single member districts tie it to the two-party system forever. This widespread view is known in political science as Duverger’s law. It holds that multiple parties are far more likely where proportional representation operates. But under first-past-the-post, a vote for a third party is wasted.
我们知道答案。法国拥有总统权力较大的议会民主制度，而美国胜者通吃的选举和单议席选区让它与两党体系永远绑定。这在政治学上被称为“迪维尔热定律”（Duverger’s law）。按照这个广受认同的定律，比例代表制更有可能带来多党格局。但在“简单多数当选”选举制度下，投给第三政党的选票被浪费了。
So while the same underlying dynamics shaped the American and French presidential elections — radical disaffection with traditional parties and the status quo — they led to dramatically different results. In France the traditional party candidates were knocked out in the first round, leaving the far-right and a standard bearer for a new movement, who then won. In the US, Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump were the anti-establishment candidates. Mr Sanders provided serious competition to Hillary Clinton, the establishment candidate on the left, but lost to her.
因此，尽管相同的基本面——对传统政党和现状深感不满——塑造了美国和法国的总统选举，但它们导致了截然不同的结果。在法国，传统政党候选人在第一轮选举中遭到淘汰，剩下了一个极右翼候选人和一个新运动旗手，后者在随后的对决中胜出。在美国，伯尼?桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)和唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)都是反体制的候选人。桑德斯曾对左翼的体制内候选人希拉里?克林顿(Hillary Clinton)构成激烈竞争，但最后出局。
Mr Trump took over the other major party and won. As political commentator Rich Yeselson wrote before the election: “If this were Europe, Reince Priebus, Paul Ryan, and Mitch McConnell might accept some tactical support from an interloping rightwing party but vigorously distance themselves from that party’s more noxious views and its leading politicians. Here, they can’t renounce Trump without renouncing the muscle and bones of their own political organisation?.?.?.?”
特朗普在另一个主要政党胜出并赢得大选。正如政治评论员里奇?耶塞尔松(Rich Yeselson)在大选前写得那样：“如果这是在欧洲，雷恩斯?普瑞巴斯(Reince Priebus)、保罗?瑞安(Paul Ryan)和米奇?麦康奈尔(Mitch McConnell)可能接受某个中途杀入的右翼政党的战术支持，但会坚决与该党较为有害的观点及其主要政客保持距离。而在美国，如果他们不放弃所在政治组织的基本纲领，就不能公开与特朗普撇清关系……”
