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美国不再企图掺和世界秩序(上)

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美国不再企图掺和世界秩序(上)

For those who hope that Donald Trump has no views on foreign policy, forget it.

那些希望唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)没有外交政策立场的人,放弃吧。

Not only does he have a view about America’s role in the world, but it is one shared by many Americans.

他不仅对美国在世界上的角色有立场,而且这立场还与很多美国人一致。

He may or may not cosy up to Vladimir Putin, have a trade war with China or even build his wall.

他会不会向弗拉基米尔.普京(Vladimir Putin)示好、与中国展开贸易战、甚至建起高墙,现在都不确定。

But on the biggest question of all, from which everything else flows, the question of US responsibility for global order, he clearly has little interest in continuing to shoulder that burden.

但是在美国对于全球秩序的责任问题上——这是最重大的问题、也是其他所有问题的源头——他明显对继续承担这个重担没什么兴趣。

He aims to put America First, which means we are closer to the end of the 70-year-old US world order

他的目标是以美国为先,这意味着长达70年的美国世界秩序更加接近终结。

Mr Trump, in this respect, is no anomaly.

在这方面,特朗普并非例外。

Pat Buchanan rode America First a long way against George HW Bush of New World Order fame in 1992; and after the Iraq and Afghan wars and the financial crisis, it became a national phenomenon.

1992年美国大选初选阶段,帕特.布坎南(Pat Buchanan)主张的美国为先对老布什(George HW Bush)主张的世界新秩序(New World Order) 发起挑战,坚持了很长一段时间才败下阵来;在伊拉克和阿富汗战争、以及金融危机后,类似的状况成了美国的全国性现象。

Internationalists such as Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio went nowhere this year; Bernie Sanders joined Mr Trump in attacking global involvement; and Hillary Clinton was hit from all sides for being too internationalist and too wedded to the idea of the US as the indispensable nation, the Bill Clinton phrase that encapsulated the thinking of every president from Harry Truman to George W Bush.

在今年的大选中,杰布.布什(Jeb Bush)和马尔科.鲁比奥(Marco Rubio)等国际主义者都很早就落败了;伯尼.桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)加入了特朗普,攻击美国对全球事务的干涉;希拉里.克林顿(Hillary Clinton)由于太过国际主义、以及太执着于美国是不可或缺的国家(比尔.克林顿(Bill Clinton)的话,这句话概括了从哈里.杜鲁门(Harry Truman)到小布什(George W Bush)的每一位总统的思路),而受到四面八方的攻击。

President Barack Obama was the transitional figure away from that tradition, and Mr Trump’s election is the decisive break.

总统巴拉克.奥巴马(Barack Obama)是偏离这一传统的过渡性人物,而特朗普当选则是与这一传统的明确决裂。

The US is, for now, out of the world order business.

就目前而言,美国已不再管全球秩序这档事。

This does not mean a return to a mythical American isolationism.

这并不意味着重返传说的美国孤立主义——

This powerful, commercially minded nation has never cut itself off from the rest of the world, not even in the 1930s.

这个注重贸易的强大国家从未自我隔绝于世界之外,即使在上世纪30年代也未曾这样做。

What it does mean is a return to national solipsism, with a much narrower definition of American interests and a reluctance to act in the world except to protect those narrow interests.

这真正意味的是,重返国家唯我主义——以狭隘得多的方式定义美国利益,不愿参与世界事务,除非为了保护狭隘意义上的美国利益。

To put it another way, America may once again start behaving like a normal nation.

换句话来说,美国或许会再次开始像一个正常国家那样行事。

A hypercritical Europe, with its own solipsism, has often taken for granted just how abnormally unselfish American behaviour has been since the second world war.

吹毛求疵、有着自己的唯我论的欧洲,往往把自二战以来美国非正常的无私行为当成理所当然的事。

No people ever took on such far-flung responsibilities for so little obvious pay-off.

从来没有哪个民族为了如此微薄的显性回报,承担起种种跟自己八竿子打不着的责任。

The US kept troops in Europe and Asia for 70 years, not to protect itself from immediate attack but to protect its allies.

美国在欧洲和亚洲驻军长达70年,不是为了保护自己免受直接攻击,而是为了保护盟友。

With half the world’s gross domestic product in 1945, it created an open economic order that let others prosper and compete.

1945年美国的国内生产总值(GDP)是世界总GDP的一半,在这种情况下,它建立了开放的经济秩序,让其他国家得以繁荣发展并参与竞争。

It helped spread democracy even though democratic allies proved more independent than the dictatorships they replaced.

它帮助传播了民主,即便事实证明,实行民主制度的盟友比被取代的那些独裁政权更加独立。

Pacific Rim leaders pledged on Friday to resist a new wave of protectionism as US President-elect Donald Trump loomed large over the opening of the 21-country Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit.

上周五,环太平洋地区的领袖承诺抵制新一波保护主义——美国当选总统特朗普的阴云,笼罩着亚太经合组织(APEC,由21个国家组成)峰会的开幕式。

Mr Trump’s surprise victory in this month’s US presidential election has upended the Obama administration’s plans for a Trans-Pacific Partnership with Japan and 10 other countries and opened the door to Chinese rivals.

特朗普在本月美国总统大选中意外获胜,推翻了奥巴马政府与日本和其他10个国家建立跨太平洋伙伴关系(TPP)的计划,为中国的类似计划乘虚而入打开了大门。

It has also raised fears that the US could embark on a trade war with China or erect new barriers that could undermine fragile growth in the region.

特朗普的胜出也引发了担忧:美国可能会与中国打起贸易战,或者设立可能会损害该地区脆弱增长的新壁垒。

Opening a business summit on the sidelines of this weekend’s APEC event, Peru’s president pointed to Mr Trump’s protectionist rhetoric and June’s vote in the UK to leave the EU as frightening developments for the global economy.

在为APEC工商领导人峰会(在APEC领导人非正式会议间隙召开)揭幕时,秘鲁总统指出,特朗普的保护主义言论以及6月英国投票退出欧盟,对全球经济而言是可怕的动向。

In the US and Britain, protectionism is taking over, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski said.

在美国和英国,保护主义正在取代(自由贸易精神),秘鲁总统佩德罗.巴勃罗.库琴斯基(Pedro Pablo Kuczynski)称,这两件事非常重要——全球贸易重新开始增长、保护主义被打败。

It is fundamental that world trade grow again and that protectionism be defeated, he added, urging anyone who wants to promote protectionism [to] read an economic history of the 1930s.

他还敦促任何想宣扬保护主义的人去读一读关于上世纪30年代的经济史。

We have to deliver an unequivocal message to the world that trade continues to be beneficial, he said.

我们必须向世界发出明确信息,贸易仍是有益的,他称。

That warning was echoed by Malcolm Turnbull, Australia’s prime minister, who cautioned that any new surge in protectionism would only hinder efforts to get the global economy out of its current low-growth rut.

澳大利亚总理马尔科姆.特恩布尔(Malcolm Turnbull)也发出类似警告,称保护主义的任何抬头,都只会妨碍旨在帮助全球经济摆脱目前低增长状态的努力。

As we all know, if you are in a deep hole the worst thing to do is to keep digging.

众所周知,如果你身处深坑之中,你最不应该做的就是继续向下挖——

That is what protectionism does, he said.

而这正是保护主义做的事,他称。