普京如何改变了世界秩序 A world order reshapedby Putin's ambition

Moscow is out to change the world order, according to General Philip Breedlove, Nato’s military commander. The entire American military establishment has designated Russia the biggest threat to the US. In response, the Pentagon is beefing up its troops, armour and artillery in eastern Europe, and wants an additional $3.4bn to pay for it.

北约(Nato)军事指挥官菲利普•布里德洛夫(Philip Breedlove)将军表示，俄罗斯决心改变世界秩序。整个美国军方把俄罗斯列为美国的最大威胁。因应这种威胁，美国五角大楼(Pentagon)正在扩充驻东欧的部队、装甲力量和炮兵力量，并希望在这方面增加34亿美元军费。

Meanwhile Barack Obama, the US president, says Russia is “overextended and bleeding” in Syria, and its economy is shrinking “drastically”. The nation is dismissed by others as “a hollow superpower” with no real strategy behind its overseas adventures.

另一方面，美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)表示，俄罗斯在叙利亚“手伸得过长，正在流血”，俄罗斯经济“大幅度”萎缩。其他人认为，俄罗斯不过是“一个空心的超级大国”，其海外冒险背后并无真实战略的支撑。

So which picture is accurate? Both. The economy is shrinking. Poverty is on the rise. Without deep, wide-ranging reforms — which few expect on Vladimir Putin’s watch — its prospects are bleak. The president could legally remain in the Kremlin for many years to come, presiding over stagnation at home and, by way of compensation, a confrontational posture abroad.

那么，哪种描述是准确的？都对。经济在萎缩。贫困在加剧。若不进行深层次的全面改革——没几个人预期普京会在任内推行这种改革——俄罗斯的前景是暗淡的。在未来许多年内，普京可能继续合法地执掌克里姆林宫，目睹国内经济停滞，同时作为补偿，在国外采取一种对抗姿态。

With an economy and defence budget both a fraction of those of the US, the Russian leader has done rather well. He has held on to power for the best part of two decades. He has held the line against Nato in the former Soviet Union. And he has positioned himself as a dealmaker in the Middle East.

在国内经济表现和国防预算都远逊于美国的情况下，这位俄罗斯领导人干得相当漂亮。在过去20年的大部分时间里，他一直掌握着权力。他延续了前苏联与北约作对的立场。他把自己定位为中东的“交易撮合人”。

His handling of Syria shows ruthlessness, skill, determination and judgment. Ignoring the brutality of President Bashar al-Assad, and with neither the US nor Europe willing to intervene in the civil war, he stepped into the vacuum and deploying air power changed the course of the conflict. Then he announced he was quitting the scene but left the door open to a return.

对叙利亚的干预展示出了他的无情、手腕、决心和判断力。他无视叙利亚总统巴沙尔•阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)的残暴行径，在美国和欧洲都不愿卷入叙利亚内战的情况下，进入了权力真空地带，通过部署空军力量改变了冲突走向。接着，他宣布将离开这个舞台，但为重返留了一扇门。

Mission accomplished, then. Mr Assad has been saved and all parties to the civil war have been disabused of the idea that a military victory is possible. In a bizarre twist, Mr Putin’s intervention paved the way for the first serious ceasefire in the war and possibly real peace talks — on his own terms.

然后，使命完成了。阿萨德获救了，内战各方都不再抱着有可能取得军事胜利的想法。叙利亚局势迎来了一个离奇的转折，普京的干预为首次正式停火以及可能的真正和谈铺平了道路——按照他的条件。

More broadly, in the Middle East, Russia is back. It is at the centre of a complex web including not only Syria, but all other parties directly and indirectly involved in the larger conflict in the region — including the US and the EU. Moscow cannot solve the region’s problems (who can?) but now they cannot be solved without it either.

从更宏观角度看，俄罗斯回到了中东。目前俄罗斯在一个错综复杂的关系网中居于中心位置，这个网络不但包含叙利亚，而且包括直接和间接卷入更大范围的中东冲突的其他所有各方——包括美国和欧盟(EU)。俄罗斯解决不了中东的问题（谁能呢？），但如今，要解决这些问题已离不开俄罗斯。

Syria shows that Russia, written off in the 1990s as a mere regional power, has a capable military and, given the opportunity, the will to use it. Does it also signal that Moscow has embarked on a new era of military adventurism? No. Mr Putin has walked up to, but not crossed, Nato’s red lines. Wars in Georgia in 2008, and from 2014 in Ukraine, were against nations not covered by Nato’s guarantee; they were fought to prevent them securing that guarantee. In Syria, Russia was confident that the US and its allies would not intervene.

叙利亚的事情表明，在上世纪90年代被认为不过是一介地区强国的俄罗斯，仍拥有强大军事实力，并且，如果获得机遇，也有使用其军事实力的意愿。这是否也昭示着，莫斯科方面已进入一个新的军事冒险主义的时代？并非如此。普京走到了北约的红线附近，但并未过线。2008年的格鲁吉亚战争，以及始于2014年的乌克兰战争，针对的都是未被北约保护伞覆盖的国家；战争的目的正是阻止这些国家进入北约保护伞。在叙利亚，俄罗斯相信，美国及其盟国不会干预。

What next? Mr Putin will probably challenge Nato in the Baltics but not militarily. He has a different toolkit, intended to undermine the alliance’s cohesion and confidence in its guarantee without triggering an armed response. Cyber operations, economic boycotts and nuclear threats are at his disposal. Those tools are relatively cheap; he can afford them.

接下来会发生什么？普京很可能将在波罗的海国家挑战北约，但不使用军事手段。他有一个不同的工具箱，旨在削弱北约联盟的凝聚力以及对其保护伞的信心，同时又不引发北约的军事回应。他可能采取的措施包括网络战、经济抵制和核威胁。这些工具相对便宜；他能用得起。

The notion that economic troubles will hinder the Kremlin, that sanctions will force Russia to retreat from Ukraine and adopt a pliant posture, is proving wrong. The image of Russia as weak and withdrawn from the International arena, of its ruling elite focused on economic stability as a means of political survival, is also wrong. That was the 1990s — a period many in Russia remember and few care to recall.

有关经济困境将束缚克里姆林宫的手脚、制裁将迫使俄罗斯从乌克兰撤退并采取顺从姿态的想法被证明是错误的。有关俄罗斯国力虚弱将退出国际舞台、其执政精英为了在政治上求生存将集中精力维护经济稳定的想法也是错误的。那是上世纪90年代的情况——一个许多俄罗斯人记得、但很少人愿意回忆的年代。

Moscow today has broader ambitions, greater resources and a willingness when challenged to challenge its adversaries in return. That is what Mr Putin has done in Syria and it is only prudent to expect him to do so again.

如今的莫斯科拥有更宏大的抱负、更多的资源，以及在遭到对手挑战时以牙还牙的意愿。这正是普京在叙利亚所做的事，预计他未来还会这么做才是明智的。

The writer is an associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

本文作者为卡内基国际和平基金会(Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)研究员