揭开ISIS财政真相

Bombing Isis oil infrastructure will not be enough to cripple the financing of the jihadi war machine, western intelligence assessments indicate, as the scale and intricacy of the economy it runs becomes clear.

西方情报评估显示，轰炸“伊斯兰国”组织(ISIS)的石油基础设施将不足以削弱圣战分子战争机器的资金来源。ISIS经济的规模和复杂细节正变得清晰起来。

The US-led coalition against Isis last week celebrated having killed the head of its financial affairs, Abu Salah. President Barack Obama hailed the killing on Monday as part of a concerted effort to strike the jihadi group and its leadership “harder than ever”.

以美国为首的联军上周欢呼打死ISIS财务主管阿布萨拉赫(Abu Salah)。美国总统巴拉克攠巴马(Barack Obama)周一称赞打死萨拉赫的行动，称其为协同努力的一部分，这种协同努力的目的是“比以往任何时候都更狠地”打击这个圣战集团及其领导层。

But in a Financial Times investigation into Isis finances, several senior intelligence officials and diplomats have said that without a ground campaign it will be hard to stop Isis from financing its core operations — and paying the more than 30,000 fighters who make up the backbone of its military force.

但在英国《金融时报》对ISIS财政展开的调查中，多名高级情报官员和外交官都表示，在无意卷入地面作战的情况下，很难阻止ISIS向其核心行动输送资金，以及向构成其军事力量主体的逾3万名作战人员支付薪水。

One coalition intelligence official said that Isis was estimated to possess sufficient reserves and a viable income stream to keep its military operations running at their current level for three years. When the coalition began its bombing campaign in October 2014, the official said, the assessment had been that Isis would begin to feel a squeeze on its finances within 12 months.

联军的一名情报官员表示，据估计，ISIS拥有足够储备和靠得住的收入来源，可在目前水平上维持三年的军事行动。这名官员承认，当联军在2014年10月开始轰炸时，相关评估是ISIS将在12个月内开始感受到财政紧张。

Based on documents and dozens of interviews with former Isis commanders, Iraqi and Syrian officials in Isis territory, and coalition diplomats, the FT has produced its own assessment of the Isis balance sheet.

根据文件和对数十名ISIS前指挥官、ISIS地盘内的伊拉克和叙利亚官员，以及联军外交官的采访，英国《金融时报》对ISIS的资产负债表作出了自己的评估。

In the past year, the jihadi terror group has raked in almost as much revenue from looting, confiscations — often thinly veiled in religious rhetoric — and taxation as it has from oil, its primary funding resource, the investigation found. Before the coalition started targeting Isis oil wells last month, the group was estimated to earn as much as $450m a year from oil.

调查发现，在过去一年里，这个圣战恐怖组织从掠夺、没收（往往以牵强的宗教说辞为借口）和税收获得的财政收入，几乎和石油（其主要资金来源）一样多。在联军上月开始空中打击ISIS油井之前，该组织估计每年从石油赚取高达4.5亿美元。

In total, Isis makes close to $900m a year, the FT’s analysis indicates, with about two-thirds of that ploughed back into its war machine.

英国《金融时报》的分析显示，ISIS每年的总收入接近9亿美元，其中约三分之二被投入它的战争机器。

But its core fighting force, comprising principally foreign recruits to the “caliphate”, costs just $200m-$250m annually, underlining how the jihadis could weather a big hit to their revenue.

但其核心战斗力量——主要由“哈里发”的外国应召者组成——每年仅耗资2亿至2.5亿美元，突显这个圣战恐怖分子能够承受对其财政收入的沉重打击。

About $20m is spent every month to pay for the core fighters. A further $15m-$20m is spent on local fighters and auxiliaries. Estimates from coalition intelligence officials vary, but most agree that the core force is at least 30,000-strong, with 50,000-70,000 more split between local members, auxiliary and part-time forces.

ISIS每月要向核心作战人员支付大约2000万美元，还要向当地作战人员和辅助人员支付1500万至2000万美元。联军情报官员的估算各不相同，但多数都认为，核心力量的人数至少有3万，还有共计5万至7万的当地成员、辅助人员和兼职力量。

Via looting and confiscations of the towns they have overrun in Iraq and Syria, the jihadis have amassed reserves of more than $1bn, according to US and European intelligence officials.

据美国和欧洲情报官员分析，通过掠夺和洗劫他们在伊拉克和叙利亚攻占的城镇，圣战者积累了逾10亿美元储备。

Much of the income in recent months has come from sources which will be hard for the coalition to disrupt without risk of civilian casualties or even humanitarian disaster.

近几个月有很大一部分收入来自联军很难在避免平民伤亡甚至人道主义灾难的情况下进行破坏的来源。

A foreign fighter for Isis receives a base salary of up to $150 a month topped up with benefits, ranging from $200 a month as an emigration bonus, war spoils and allowances for wives and enslaved women.

ISIS的外国作战人员每月获得至多150美元的基本工资，外加各种福利——从每月200美元的移民奖金、战利品，到妻子和奴役女性的津贴。

On average, it amounts to around $800, according to fighters from Isis territory.

据ISIS地盘上的作战人员介绍，平均而言，这相当于每月收入约800美元。

Other priority areas of Isis spending include its internal security apparatus, comprising the morality police, the hisba, and the secret police, the amniyat. The FT investigation indicates that Isis spends as much as $15m a month on internal security.

ISIS的其他优先支出领域包括其内部安全机器，主要是道德警察hisba和秘密警察amniyat。英国《金融时报》调查显示，ISIS在内部保卫上每月支出高达1500万美元。

Other areas of government, such as healthcare and education, receive less than $10m a month between them.

其它政府职能领域，如医疗和教育，每月总共得到的经费不到1000万美元。