重新审视文明的冲突 The clash of civilisations revisited

Ever since the late Samuel Huntington predicted that international politics would be dominated by a “clash of civilisations”, his theory, first outlined in 1993[pub summer 1993 foreign affairs - was there an earlier iteration?], has found some of its keenest adherents among militant Islamists. The terrorists who inflicted mass murder on Paris are part of a movement that sees Islam and the west as locked in inevitable, mortal combat.

已故的塞缪尔亨廷顿(Samuel Huntington)曾预言，国际政治将由“文明的冲突”主导。该理论最早是在1993年提出的（发表在1993年夏天的《外交》杂志(Foreign Affairs)上）。自从提出以来，亨廷顿的理论在伊斯兰激进分子中找到了部分最忠实的拥趸。对巴黎实施大规模杀戮的恐怖分子，就从属于一项运动，该运动认为伊斯兰教和西方注定陷入不可避免的生死冲突。

Leading western politicians, by contrast, have almost always rejected Huntington’s analysis. Even George W Bush said “there is no clash of civilisations”. And everyday life in multicultural western nations, most of which have large Muslim minorities, offers a daily refutation of the idea that different faiths and cultures cannot live and work together.

相比之下，西方主要政客差不多总是在否认亨廷顿的分析。甚至连乔治圠布什(George W. Bush)都曾表示：“不存在文明的冲突。”文化多元的西方国家（它们多数都拥有规模庞大的穆斯林少数民族群体）的日常生活，每天都驳斥着认为不同信仰和文化无法共生、合作的观点。

In the aftermath of the Paris attacks, that core idea needs to be reaffirmed. And yet a necessary restatement of liberal values should also not prevent a sober acknowledgment of some malign global trends. The fact is that hardline Islamism is on the rise — even in some countries, such as Turkey, Malaysia and Bangladesh, previously regarded as models of moderate Muslim societies. At the same time, the expression of anti-Muslim prejudice is entering the political mainstream in the US, Europe and in India.

在巴黎发生袭击事件之后，这一核心理念必须加以重申。然而，对自由价值观的必要重申，也不应阻止人们清醒地认识部分有害的全球趋势。事实上，强硬派伊斯兰主义正在崛起——即使在土耳其、马来西亚和孟加拉国等部分此前被视为温和穆斯林社会典范的国家也是如此。与此同时，带有反穆斯林偏见的言论也正在进入美国、欧洲和印度的主流政治。

Taken together, these developments are narrowing the space for those who want to push back against the narrative of a “clash of civilisations”.

综合而言，对于那些想要反驳“文明的冲突”说法的人来说，这些变化正在压缩他们的空间。

Terrorist attacks, such as those in Paris, promote tensions between Muslims and non-Muslims — as they are intended to. But there are also longer-term trends at work that are driving radicalisation. One of the most pernicious is the way in which the Gulf states, in particular Saudi Arabia, have used oil money to spread intolerant forms of Islam into the rest of the Muslim world.

类似巴黎那样的恐怖主义袭击，加剧了穆斯林和非穆斯林之间的紧张关系——而这正是这些袭击的用意所在。不过，还有一些更长期的趋势在起作用，在推动世界的激进化。其中一个最具破坏性的趋势，就是海湾国家（尤其是沙特阿拉伯）利用石油资金，向穆斯林世界的其他地区传播不包容的伊斯兰教形式。

The effects are now visible in Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent, Africa and Europe. Malaysia has long been held up as an example of a successful and prosperous, multicultural nation with a Muslim-Malay majority and a large ethnic-Chinese minority. But things are changing. Bilahari Kausikan, a former head of the foreign ministry in neighbouring Singapore, notes a “significant and continuing narrowing of the political and social space for non-Muslims” in Malaysia. He adds: “Arab influences from the Middle East have for several decades steadily eroded the Malay variant of Islam... it with a more austere and exclusive interpretation.” The corruption scandal that is currently undermining the government of Prime Minister Najib Razak has increased communal tensions, as the Malaysian government has fallen back on Muslim identity politics to rally support. One junior government minister even recently accused the opposition of being part of a global, Jewish conspiracy against Malaysia.

这种趋势的影响目前在东南亚、印度次大陆、非洲和欧洲都可以看到。马来西亚长期被树立为成功而繁荣的多元化国家典范，不仅有占人口多数的穆斯林马来人，还有庞大的华裔少数民族。然而，事情正在发生变化。曾任马来西亚邻国新加坡外交部常任秘书的比拉哈里考西坎(Bilahari Kausikan)指出，马来西亚“非穆斯林的政治和社会空间正遭遇显著而持续性的压缩”。他补充说：“几十年来，来自中东的阿拉伯的影响一直在稳步侵蚀着马来西亚的伊斯兰教……用更严厉、更排他的解释取而代之。”目前，腐败丑闻正在削弱马来西亚总理纳吉布拉扎克(Najib Razak)政府的影响力，加剧了马来西亚族群间的紧张。与此同时，马来西亚政府已开始借助穆斯林身份政治提升支持率。最近，一名低级的政府部长甚至还曾指责反对党是针对马来西亚的全球性犹太阴谋的一部分。

In Bangladesh, a Muslim country with a secular constitution, radical Islamists have been responsible for murders of intellectuals, bloggers and publishers, over the past year. There has also been a rise in attacks on Christians, Hindus and Shia Muslims. Much of this violence has been perpetrated by Isis or al-Qaeda. But, as in Malaysia, the rise of radical Islam seems to have been heavily influenced by the Gulf states — through the funding of education and the connections forged by migrant workers.

孟加拉国是一个拥有世俗化宪法的穆斯林国家。在孟加拉国，激进的伊斯兰主义者要为过去一年里发生的多起针对知识分子、博客作者和出版界人士的谋杀负责。此外，针对基督教徒、印度教徒和什叶派(Shia)穆斯林的攻击也已增加。大量此种暴行都是“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”(ISIS)或基地组织(al-Qaeda)犯下的。不过，和马来西亚类似，激进伊斯兰教的崛起似乎在很大程度上受到了海湾国家的影响——这种影响是通过教育资助和外来劳动者打造的人脉关系施加的。

For many in the west, Turkey has long been the best example of a majority-Muslim country that is also a successful secular democracy. But in the era of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, religion has become much more central to the country’s politics and identity. Mr Erdogan has been labelled as “mildly Islamist” by The Economist and others. But there was nothing mild about his statement in 2014 that westerners — “look like friends, but they want us dead, they like seeing our children die”.

对西方许多人来说，长期以来土耳其一直是一个最佳典范：这里穆斯林占人口多数，同时也是个成功的世俗化民主国家。然而，在土耳其总统雷杰普吠伊普埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)的时代，宗教在土耳其政治和身份认同中的重要性已大大提高。埃尔多安已被《经济学人》(The Economist)和其他媒体打上了“温和伊斯兰主义者”的标签。但是，他在2014年的讲话可一点也不温和，他说，西方人“虽然看起来像朋友，实际上他们却希望我们灭亡，他们喜欢看着我们的孩子死去”。

While India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, has not said anything this inflammatory about Muslims, he has long been accused of tolerating anti-Islamic prejudice and violence. During his first months in office, Mr Modi reassured some critics by concentrating on economic reform. But in recent months, members of his Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party have ramped up anti-secular and anti-Muslim rhetoric — with the lynching of a Muslim man, accused of eating beef, making national headlines.

尽管印度总理纳伦德拉莫迪(Narendra Modi)并未说过关于穆斯林的这么煽动性的话，长期以来他一直被指责纵容反伊斯兰的偏见和暴力活动。在上任的头几个月，莫迪通过将注意力集中于经济改革打消了部分批评人士的疑虑。然而最近几个月，莫迪领导的印度教民族主义政党人民党(Bharatiya Janata Party)的成员，加大了反世俗化和反穆斯林的言论。一位被控食用牛肉的穆斯林男子被私刑处死的消息，成为印度的头条新闻。

In Europe, even before the Paris attacks, the migrant crisis had helped to fuel the rise of anti-Muslim parties and social movements. As Germany has opened its doors to refugees from the Middle East, violent attacks on migrant hostels have risen. In France, it is widely expected the far-right National Front will make significant gains in next month’s regional elections.

在欧洲，在巴黎的袭击事件之前，难民危机就已助长了反穆斯林党派和社会运动的兴起。在德国向来自中东的难民打开大门之际，对难民收容所的暴力袭击活动也已增加。在法国，人们普遍预期极右翼国民阵线(National Front)在下个月的大区选举中将大幅领先。