希腊左翼大选胜出将终结财政紧缩
ATHENS — Greece rejected the punishing economics of austerity on Sunday and sent a warning signal to the rest of Europe as the left-wing Syriza party won a decisive victory in national elections, positioning its tough-talking leader, Alexis Tsipras, to become the next prime minister.
雅典——周日，随着左翼政党激进左翼联盟(Syriza)在全国大选中赢得决定性胜利，使得该党语气强硬的领导人亚历克西斯·齐普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)成为下一任总理，雅典开始抵制严格的经济紧缩政策，并向欧洲其他国家发出了一个警告信号。
With 60 percent of the vote counted, Syriza had 36 percent, almost eight points ahead of the governing center-right New Democracy Party of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, who had conceded defeat. The only uncertainty was whether Syriza would muster an outright parliamentary majority or if it would have to form a coalition.
在目前已经统计的60%的选票中，激进左翼联盟赢得了36%的投票，领先执政党——现任总理安东尼斯·萨马拉斯(Antonis Samaras)领导的中右翼政党新民主党(New Democracy Party)将近八个百分点，萨马拉斯已经承认败选。唯一不确定的是，激进左翼联盟是会获得议会的大多数席位，还是需要组成联合政府。Appearing before a throng of supporters outside Athens University late Sunday night, Mr. Tsipras, 40, declared that the era of austerity was over and promised to revive the Greek economy. He also said his government would not allow Greece’s creditors to strangle the country.
周日深夜，40岁的齐普拉斯现身雅典大学(Athens University)校园外，对众多支持者表示，紧缩时代结束了，并承诺重振希腊经济。他还表示，他领导的政府不会允许希腊的债主们压制希腊的发展。
“Greece will now move ahead with hope, and reach out to Europe, and Europe is going to change,” he said. “The verdict is clear: We will bring an end to the vicious circle of austerity.”
“希腊现在将带着希望前进，向欧洲求助，而欧洲将会出现改变，”他说。“这个决定很明确：我们将终结紧缩举措的恶性循环。”Syriza’s victory is a dramatic milestone for Europe at a time when continuing economic weakness has stirred an angry, populist backlash from France to Spain to Italy, as more voters grow fed up with policies that demand sacrifice to address the discipline of financial markets without delivering more jobs and prosperity. Syriza is poised to become the first anti-austerity party to take power in a eurozone country, and would shatter the two-party political establishment that has dominated Greece for four decades.
激进左翼联盟的胜利对于欧洲来说是一个戏剧性的里程碑，目前，欧洲经济依旧疲软，从法国、西班牙到意大利，民众已被激怒，引发民粹主义反弹，越来越多的选民对紧缩政策感到厌烦，这种政策要求民众做出牺牲，对金融市场加以惩戒，却带不来工作机会和繁荣。激进左翼联盟即将成为欧元区国家中第一个反对紧缩政策的执政党，并且终结了希腊40年来的两党政治体制。“Democracy will return to Greece,” said Mr. Tsipras, speaking earlier to a swarm of reporters and photographers as he cast his ballot in Athens. “The message is that our common future in Europe is not the future of austerity.”
“希腊将回归民主，”齐普拉斯早些时候在雅典投票时对一群记者和摄影师说。“此次发出的信息是，欧洲共同的未来不是一个紧缩的未来。”Youthful, with a seemingly unflappable demeanor, Mr. Tsipras has worked diligently to soften his image as an anti-Europe radical, joking that his opponents had accused him of everything except stealing other men’s wives. On the campaign trail, he has promised to clean up Greece’s corrupt political system, reform the country’s public administration and reduce the tax burden on the middle class while cracking down on tax evasion by the country’s oligarchical business class.
充满朝气、看起来从容不迫的齐普拉斯努力软化自己反欧洲激进分子的形象，并开玩笑称，他的对手对他提出了各种指责，除了与别人的老婆偷情。在参加竞选时，他承诺整顿希腊腐败的政治体系，对公共行政系统进行改革，减轻中产阶级税负，同时打击该国寡头商业阶层的逃税行为。But his biggest promise — and the one that has stirred deep anxiety in Brussels and Berlin as well as on financial markets — has been his pledge to force Greece’s creditors, led by Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, to renegotiate the terms of the country’s 240 billion euro financial bailout. Squeezed by belt-tightening policies intended to stabilize the government’s finances, Greece has endured a historic collapse since the 2009 economic crisis, as economic output has shrunk by 25 percent and unemployment still hovers at roughly 26 percent.
但他最重要的承诺是，迫使以德国总理安格拉·默克尔(Angela Merkel)为首的债主们就2400亿欧元(约合2.07万亿元人民币)的金融援助计划条款重新进行谈判，这个承诺在布鲁塞尔、柏林及金融市场引发极大的担忧。旨在稳定政府财务状况的紧缩政策致使希腊捉襟见肘，自2009年经济危机以来，希腊经历了一场空前的崩溃，经济产出减少25%，失业率仍旧在26%上下徘徊。In setting up a showdown in coming weeks with Germany and the country’s other creditors, Mr. Tsipras has argued that easing the bailout terms would allow more government spending, stimulating more economic growth and employment as well as helping the Greeks who need it the most.
为了在未来几周与德国及其他债主摊牌，齐普拉斯辩称，放宽援助计划条款将增加政府开支，进一步刺激经济增长和就业，给最需要这种举措的希腊人带来帮助。“Tsipras won because those who imposed austerity never thought about the effects of such drastic policies that impoverished millions of people,” said Paul De Grauwe, a professor at the London School of Economics and a former adviser to the European Commission. “In a world where people are so hit, they just don’t remain passive. Their reaction is to turn to the politicians who will change the process.”
“齐普拉斯赢得选举是因为，那些实施紧缩政策的人从未想过这种极端政策带来的影响，这种政策让数以百万计的人陷入贫困，”伦敦政治经济学院(London School of Economics)教授、前欧盟委员会(European Commission)顾问保罗·德格罗韦(Paul De Grauwe)说。“遭受如此打击的人民，是不会逆来顺受的。他们的反应是求助于将会改变这一过程的政治人士。”Mr. Tsipras will face immediate challenges. Greece is still waiting for a 7 billion euro bailout payment that Athens needs to keep the government running and to pay off billions in debt obligations due in the coming months. He has also demanded that creditors write down at least half of Greece’s 319 billion euro public debt in order to give the country more breathing room for a spending stimulus that he says would give the economy a much-needed jolt.
齐普拉斯很快就会面临挑战。希腊仍在等待70亿欧元的援助资金，希腊人需要这笔钱维持政府运转，偿还未来几个月就要到期的数十亿欧元的债务。他还要求债主至少将希腊3190亿欧元的公共债务减记一半，以便让该国有更多的喘息空间刺激消费。他认为，刺激消费将会给该国经济带来急需的提振。Mr. Tsipras has pledged immediate action, including restoring electricity to poor families who have lost services for unpaid bills. He has promised to raise the minimum wage to 751 euros a month from 586 euros a month for all workers; restore collective bargaining agreements;prohibit mass layoffs; and create 300,000 jobs.
齐普拉斯许诺立即采取行动，包括向因未支付账单而被断电的贫困家庭恢复供电。他还承诺将面向所有行业的最低工资从每月586欧元提高至751欧元、恢复劳资双方集体谈判协议、禁止大规模裁员并创造30万个就业岗位。Jens Weidmann, president of Bundesbank, the German central bank, warned that Greece would remain dependent on outside financial support and that the new Greek government “should not make promises that the country cannot afford.”
德国央行德国联邦银行(Bundesbank)行长延斯·魏德曼(Jens Weidmann)告诫称，希腊可能依然会依赖外部的财政支持，并且新一届希腊政府“不应许下国家负担不起的诺言”。“I hope the new government won’t call into question what is expected and what has already been achieved,” Mr. Weidmann said in an interview with Germany’s public broadcaster.
“我希望新一届政府不要质疑目标和当前现状，”魏德曼在接受德国公共广播公司的采访时说。On the streets of Athens, voters expressed a range of emotions as they went to the polls, from anger to betrayal to fear to hope.
在雅典街头，选民在前往投票站时表现出了各种各样的情绪，有愤怒也有觉得被背叛，有恐惧也有希望。At a polling station in Mets, a middle-class district near central Athens, Achilleas Mandrakis, 47, said he runs a garage but was struggling to stay afloat after his wife lost her job at a shoe store. “I always voted New Democracy, and I never trusted the leftists,” he said. “But enough is enough, really. We kept giving them a chance, but they messed up. They’ve made our lives miserable.
在雅典市中心附近的中产阶级聚集区梅茨的一处投票站，47岁的阿希里斯·曼德拉基斯(Achilleas Mandrakis)说自己经营着一家汽车修理厂，但自从妻子失去了在一家鞋店的工作后，他就难以维持下去了。“我一直投新民主党，从不相信左翼，”他说。“但真的够了。我们一直给他们机会，但他们却搞砸了。他们害得我们生活悲惨。”“At least a different party might change something in this mess, anything.”
“至少另一个政党可能会给这烂摊子带来一些变化，什么都行啊。”In a brief news conference late Sunday night, Mr. Samaras vowed that his party would continue to play a role in Greek politics and defended his government. “I received the country at the edge of a cliff,” he said. “I was asked to take burning coals into my hands and I did it.”
在周日深夜的新闻发布会上，萨马拉斯誓称他领导的政党将继续在希腊政坛发挥作用，并为他这一届政府进行了辩护。“我临危受命，接手这个国家，”他说。“我被要求接过烫手的山芋，我照做了。”Mr. Samaras said that Greece had moved away from deficits and recession and that his government had “restored the credibility of the country.”
萨马拉斯表示，希腊已经摆脱了赤字和衰退，并且他领导的政府已经“恢复了国家的信誉”。For Syriza, the immediate question was whether the party would win the 151 seats needed to have an outright majority in Parliament. Projections showed that the result would be very close, and if he falls short, Mr. Tsipras might align with the fringe party, Independent Greeks, a center-right, anti-austerity movement that might push for a harder line in any debt negotiations. Early returns also showed that the neo-fascist Golden Dawn party was in third place with roughly 6 percent of the total vote.
对激进左翼联盟来说，迫切的问题是，该党能否在议会赢得占绝对多数所需的151个席位。预测显示，结果可能会非常接近，并且如果达不到这个席位数，齐普拉斯可能会与边缘政党独立希腊人(Independent Greeks)结盟。该党是一个中左翼反紧缩团体，可能会要求在一切债务谈判中采取更强硬的立场。早期反馈还显示，新法西斯主义政党金色黎明党(Golden Dawn)获得了大约6%的选票，位居第三。While Greece sees itself as being punished by creditors’ demands, Germany and a host of European officials have argued that Greece and other troubled eurozone nations must clean up the high debts and deficits at the root of Europe’s debt crisis. They say Athens has still failed to make enough headway on the structural reforms necessary to put the economy on better footing, and they are pressing Greece to raise billions of euros through more budgetary cutbacks and taxes.
希腊认为自己是在债权人要求下接受惩罚，但德国和很多欧洲官员表示，希腊和其他身处困境的欧元区国家必须清理高额债务和赤字，它们是欧洲债务危机的根源。为了改善经济基础，必须进行结构改革，但他们表示，雅典依然未在这方面取得足够的进展。他们正在向希腊施压，要求其通过进一步削减预算和征税，以筹集数十亿欧元。Many analysts say Mr. Tsipras must moderate his campaign promises and take a more centrist approach if he wants to save the economy and keep Greece solvent. “That will be the best possible outcome for Greece and for Europe, because it would show that these protest movements ultimately recognize reality – which is that they are in the euro, and they have to play by the rules,” said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
许多分析人士表示，如果想挽救经济，保持希腊有偿债能力，齐普拉斯必须让自己的竞选承诺变得温和些，并采取更中间派的方式。“不管是对希腊还是欧洲来说，这可能都是最好的结果，因为事实会表明，这些抗议团体最终会承认现实，那就是，它们身在欧元区，必须遵守规则，”华盛顿彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)高级研究员雅各布·芬克·柯克加德(Jacob Funk Kirkegaard)说。Otherwise, he warned, “things could get a lot worse.”
否则，他警告称，“形势会进一步恶化。”“Very, very quickly,” he added.
“而且会非常非常快，”他接着说。
