痴心妄想: 日本想抬头, 谁会答应?

For the first time in many years, there is an air of confidence in Japan amid signs that the country could be on the edge of an economic renaissance.

多年来，日本第一次洋溢着自信的气氛，一些迹象显示，该国可能正处于经济复苏的边缘。

The stock market has bounced back, with the benchmark Nikkei average rising 44 per cent since November. Exporters are reporting higher profits as a result of a weaker yen and companies from Toyota to Seven-Eleven are paying their employees bigger bonuses than they have in some time.

股市已经反弹，基准日经指数自去年11月以来上涨了44%。由于日元走弱，出口商利润增加。丰田(Toyota)、711等公司发给员工的奖金都是一段时间以来的最高水平。

The positive mood is such that, on meeting US President Barack Obama in Washington last month, Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, was able to declare that “Japan is back”.

人心振奋，以至于上个月日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)在华盛顿与美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)会晤的时候，有底气宣称“日本回来了”(Japan is back)。

As if to presage the country’s comeback, last year it registered net foreign direct investment for the first time in three years, according to provisional statistics compiled by Japan’s external trade organisation, Jetro.

日本贸易振兴机构(Jetro)的初步统计数据显示，去年日本外商直接投资(FDI)三年来首次出现净流入，这似乎是日本经济重振的一个预兆。

While Japan saw more companies pull out in 2010 and 2011, and suffered negative FDI of $1.4bn and $1.7bn respectively, last year it received a net $2.1bn, reports Jetro.

Jestro报告显示，2010年和2011年有更多公司撤出日本，FDI净流出分别为14亿美元和17亿美元，而去年则出现21亿美元的净流入。

One driver of renewed interest has been increasing regional interdependence. “Investment from Asia is growing strongly,” says Nobuyuki Nagashima, director-general of Jestro’s invest Japan department.

导致外商对日本重燃兴趣的一个因素是不断强化的地区相互依赖。Jestro对日投资部负责人Nobuyuki Nagashima说：“来自亚洲的投资在快速增加。”

Although investment by Asian businesses still trails that by US and European companies, investment from Asia, excluding China, has risen from 16 per cent of the FDI made with Jetro assistance in fiscal 2003, to 44.9 per cent in the first three months of 2012.

尽管来自亚洲企业的投资依然落后于美国和欧洲企业，在Jetro推动下的亚洲（除中国外）投资占日本FDI比例已经从2003财年的16%，扩大到2012年前三个月的44.9%。

Investment from China has also risen slightly, from 6.5 per cent to 7.7 per cent, although that is a drop from 15 per cent in 2009, reflecting, perhaps, the impact of a territorial dispute over islands in the East China Sea.

来自中国的投资也略有增加，从6.5%增加到7.7%，尽管这个比例低于2009年的15%。这可能反映了围绕东海岛屿的领土争端的影响。

Nevertheless, China is Japan’s second largest investor, with 106 companies investing in Japan with assistance from Jetro, between April 2003 and the first three months of 2012, just behind the 315 companies from the US.

然而，中国却是日本的第二大投资来源地，从2003年4月份到2012年前三个月期间，在Jetro的推动下有106家中国公司投资日本，仅次于美国的315家公司。

What is more, Korea tied with the UK for fourth place – 63 companies each – while Singapore was eighth and Hong Kong, China’s special administrative region, ninth.

此外，韩国与英国并列第四，各有63家公司投资日本。新加坡是第八位，中国香港特别行政区是第九位。

“This was unthinkable when we started [promoting FDI] in 2003,” Mr Nagashima says.

Nagashima说：“在2003年我们开始（推动外商直接投资）的时候，这种情景是不可想象的。”

More recent events, such as the nuclear meltdown in 2011 in Fukushima Daiichi and the resulting enthusiasm for alternative energy and energy conservation, have spurred new markets in which foreign companies are showing keen interest.

近年的一些事件，比如2011年福岛第一核电站事故及其引发的对替代能源和节约能源的热情，催生了一些外国企业非常感兴趣的新市场。

RAE Systems, a US maker of gas and radiation detection systems, and Polimaster, a Belarus-based radiation instrument maker, both set up offices in Japan last year.

美国气体和放射物检测仪器生产商华瑞科学仪器公司(RAE Systems)，以及白俄罗斯放射仪器生产商Polimaster，去年都在日本设立了办事处。

Still, the government has its work cut out to sustain foreign interest.

然而，为了维持外国投资的兴趣，日本政府还有很多工作要做。

“Only one in 10 companies that are candidates to invest in Japan actually do so,” Mr Nagashima complains.

Nagashima抱怨说：“每十家准备在日本投资的公司中，实际上只有一家会这么做。”

Japan has never been a particularly powerful magnet for FDI. Inward FDI comprised just 3.7 per cent of gross domestic product at the end of 2011, compared with 49.8 per cent for the UK and 34.7 per cent for France, according to statistics from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

日本从来都不是一个特别能够吸引FDI的国家。联合国贸易与发展会议(UNCTAD)统计显示，在2011年底，日本吸引的FDI只占国内生产总值(GDP)的3.7%，而英国和法国的这一比例则分别为49.8%和34.7%。

“The reasons why foreign companies don’t set up businesses in Japan are the high taxes, compared to the rest of Asia, a lack of English language fluency, inflexible labour rules and regulations,” Mr Nagashima says.

Nagashima说：“外国公司不在日本设立公司的原因有：与亚洲其他国家相比日本税负较重，日本人英语不够流利，劳动法规缺乏灵活性。”

Japan’s corporate tax rate of about 38 per cent compares unfavourably with the 24.2 per cent in South Korea and 17 per cent in Singapore.

日本的公司税税率大约是38%，与韩国的24.2%和新加坡的17%相比是处于劣势的。

Masahiro Sakane, chairman of Komatsu, said this year one reason overseas interests would not want to acquire a Japanese one is because “Japanese people fear tremendously being bought by a foreign company.” “But unless we create an environment for foreign companies to come into Japan, we won’t be able to overcome deflation,” he said.

小松制作所(Komatsu)会长坂根正弘(Masahiro Sakane)指出，今年海外企业没有意愿收购日本企业的一个原因就是“日本人非常担忧被外国企业收购。”他说：“但如果我们不为外国公司进入日本创造环境，就无法克服通货紧缩。”

While changing public attitudes will take time, the new administration is stirring hopes that it will adopt bold measures to deregulate industry and stimulate investment by domestic and foreign companies alike.

虽然改变公众态度需要时间，新一届政府已经让人们看到希望，当局将采取大胆举措，放松行业管制，并刺激国内外企业的投资。

Mr Abe, who has made fighting deflation a priority, has expressed a strong commitment to deregulation, which many agree is critical to attracting more FDI.

将抗击通缩作为重点任务的安倍已表示要大力放松管制，很多人认为，这对吸引更多FDI来说非常关键。

As soon as he took office, Mr Abe reinstated the regulatory reform council, which had been disbanded by the previous government.

上任不久，安倍就恢复了上届政府解散的监管改革委员会。

Mr Abe has instructed the council to focus on deregulation in the areas of employment as well as the energy, environment, health and medicine sectors.

安倍指示该委员会将重点放在就业、能源、环境、健康以及医疗领域的放松管制。

The government is providing incentives to companies that bring high value-added activities, such as R and D and regional headquarters business.

政府将为引入诸如研发、地区总部业务等高附加值活动的公司提供激励。

A pillar of the programme is a 7 per cent effective corporate tax cut for five years, which reduces the corporate tax rate from 38 per cent to 31 per cent.

该计划的一大重点就是五年内将实际公司税率减免7%，也就是将38%的税率降到31%。

If special local government tax breaks are included, the rate falls further to the lower 20s.

如果算入地方政府特别税收优惠，那么税率进一步降到略高于20%的水平。

This move, is “unprecedented”, says Takashi Nakamizo, deputy director of the trade and investment facilitation division at the ministry of economy, trade and industry.

日本经济产业省(METI)贸易投资促进部门的Takashi Nakamizo表示，这一举措是“史无前例”的。

The government has accelerated visa-issuing procedures, set up special regional zones, which offer further tax breaks and is offering subsidies to global companies to cover some costs of establishing operations in the country.

政府加快了签证办理手续，还设立特别区提供进一步减税优惠，为跨国公司提供补贴，用于弥补在日本开设业务的部分成本。

But the key to attracting FDI lies in stimulating demand for the products and services foreign companies have to offer.

但吸引FDI的关键在于促进市场对外国公司产品和服务的需求。

In that respect, Mr Abe’s success so far in rallying the country behind his grand plan to escape from deflation and lift the public mood, suggests he is off to a good start.

在这点上，从安倍迄今在通过其摆脱通缩并增强公众信心的宏伟计划来提振日本经济的成功上来看，他已经开了一个很好的头。

Japan may no longer be able to attract large manufacturers, which create numerous jobs, but it is still an attractive market for consumer product and services companies, particularly those in the forefront of cutting edge technologies.

日本可能不再能够吸引大型制造商以创造大量就业，但对于消费品和服务公司来说，它依然是一个很有吸引力的市场，特别是那些尖端技术领域的先驱公司。

For example, Biogen Idec, the oldest independent biotech company in the world, sees strong potential for growth.

比如说，世界上历史最悠久的独立生物技术公司百健艾迪公司(Biogen Idec)就看到了巨大的增长潜力。

“Japan is a market that recognises and encourages major innovations like those we’re developing at Biogen Idec,” says Doug Williams, executive vice president of research and development.

该公司研发部门执行副总裁道格拉斯•威廉姆斯(Doug Williams)说：“日本这样的市场重视并鼓励重大创新，就像我们在百健艾迪所取得的一些创新。”

“The Japanese healthcare system provides low-cost, universal coverage for patients with intractable diseases including multiple sclerosis and haemophilia,” for which Biogen Idec is developing effective treatments, says Les Fosbrook, managing director in Japan.

百健艾迪日本董事总经理莱斯•福斯布鲁克(Les Fosbrook)说：“日本医疗体系为患有疑难杂症（包括多发性硬化症和血友病）的病人提供低成本、全面覆盖的医疗服务。”百健艾迪正在针对这些病症研发有效治疗方式。

The group plans to double investment in the country as well as the number of local employees, from 70 to 140, in a year’s time.

该集团计划一年内将在日本的投资额翻番，并将当地员工数量从70名增加至140名。

For many consumer product companies, success in Japan, one of the most demanding markets in the world, provides a gateway to global success.

对于很多消费品公司来说，在日本这一全球最挑剔的市场之一获得成功，就等于打通了一道在全球取得成功的“门户”。

As the Chinese home electronics group Haier told the FT: “We believe that maintaining a presence in Japan, which has the highest level of consumer electronics technology in the world and where consumers are demanding and discerning . . . will contribute to raising Haier’s presence in the world and help us become the number one company in the world.”

中国家电集团海尔告诉英国《金融时报》：“我们认为，在日本这个有着全球最高水平的消费电子产品技术、消费者要求高眼光又敏锐的国家站稳脚跟，将会有助于提升海尔在全球的地位，并帮助我们成为全球最优秀的企业。”

Convincing more foreign businesses to share that view will hinge on Mr Abe’s ability to deliver on his promises and show that Japan’s revival is real.

能否让更多的外国企业抱持同样的观点，取决于安倍能否兑现承诺，证明日本的复苏是真实的。