未来数月非洲之角干旱预期减轻

The World Meteorological Organization (WMo) says the Horn Of Africa can look forward to weaker drought conditions in the coming months. In its latest El Nino/La Nina update, the WMO says near neutral or weak La Nina conditions, which lessen the severity of drought, are the most likely scenarios for the rest of 2011.

世界气象组织(WMO)称，预计未来几个月非洲之角地区的干旱灾情将会减轻。该组织在其最新的厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜气候异常报告中说，2011年余下时间最可能的气候情况是接近中度或较弱的拉尼娜，这将使东非干旱的程度减轻。

The El Nino and La Nina phenomena, which occur in the tropical Pacific, have a significant impact upon weather and climate around the globe. The World Meteorological Organization says there is a possibility that La Nina conditions, where sea surface temperatures cool, may re-emerge over the coming months. But, if this happens, it says the event is likely to be much weaker than the moderate to strong La Nina, which prevailed in 2010 and ended in May 2011.

厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜是发生在太平洋热带地区的现象，它们对全球的天气和气候造成重大影响。世界气象组织说，未来几个月有可能再次出现拉尼娜现象，也就是海面温度变冷。不过，该组织说，如果发生这种现象，其程度可能比上一次“中到强度的拉尼娜”要弱得多，上一次的拉尼娜是在2010年盛行，2011年5月结束。

That La Nina was linked to disastrously wet conditions in parts of Australia, Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and portions of northern South America. At the same time, it caused drought in East Africa.

那一次的拉尼娜与澳大利亚、印度尼西亚、东南亚和南美洲北部部分地区的灾难性的潮湿条件有关。与此同时，它造成了东非地区的干旱。

WMO Climate Expert Rupa Kumar Kolli says if La Nina re-emerges it would result in rainfall, which is either normal or below normal. This, he tells VOA, could potentially spell bad news for East Africa but he adds that drought conditions are still likely to be less severe than in the past two years.

世界气象组织气候专家鲁帕·柯里说，如果再次出现拉尼娜，将导致正常或低于正常强度的降雨。他对美国之音说，对东非而言，这可能是个潜在的坏消息。但他补充说，干旱程度仍可能比过去两年要轻。

“There is reason to be concerned about the situation. But, at the same time, even if La Nina occurs, the current indications are that it is likely to be weak and is not going to be anywhere close to the moderate to strong La Nina that we have seen last year," said Kolli. "In that sense, even if it is slightly below normal, it is really not alarming and it is very unlikely that we will see a very severe drought condition to happen in Eastern Africa.”

柯里说：“有理由对这一状况感到担忧。但与此同时，就算发生拉尼娜，目前的指标表明它的程度可能较弱，不会接近我们去年看到的“温和至强度的拉尼娜”。从这个角度来讲，就算它的程度仅略低于正常，也不令人惊恐，我们不可能看到东非地区发生非常严重的干旱。”

More than 12 million people in Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Somalia are struggling to cope with the worst drought to hit the Horn of Africa in 60 years. People in Somalia are particularly hard hit as they try to survive the twin disasters of conflict and drought. The United Nations has declared several regions in southern Somalia to be famine zones.

肯尼亚、埃塞俄比亚、吉布提和索马里的1200多万人正在艰难地应对非洲之角60年来最严重的干旱。特别是索马里人受到严重的影响，他们设法在冲突和干旱的双重灾难中生存。联合国已经宣布，索马里南部的几个地区为饥荒区。

Kolli says the drought in the Horn of Africa came as no surprise to meteorologists. He says the impact resulting from the La Nina event was expected and he says regional weather centers warned countries of the severity of the drought that was looming.

世界气象组织的柯里表示，对气象学家来说，非洲之角发生干旱毫不令人惊讶。他指出，他们已预料到拉尼娜造成的这种影响。他说，地区气象中心曾经警告这些国家，严重的旱灾已若隐若现。

Once countries have been warned of a possible weather-related disaster, he tells VOA it is up to their governments to take appropriate measures to try to lessen the expected impact.

他对美国之音说，一旦一个国家被警告可能发生与气候相关的灾害，将由该国的政府采取适当措施以设法减轻所预料的影响。

“Famines are man-made, whereas droughts are natural parts of the system. So, the drought warnings were given sufficiently in advance to the policy makers,"i added. "But, the famine conditions are a combination of the drought and other factors, which actually create a situation where people have no access to food.”

柯里说：“饥荒是人为的，而干旱是自然发生的。因此，我们会足够提前向决策者发出干旱警告。但是，饥荒是干旱和其它因素的综合结果，这些因素导致人们无法获得食物。”

WMO Climate Expert Kolli says meteorologists are trying to improve ways of getting policy makers to take their warnings more seriously. He says they are trying to see how they can better communicate weather and climate information. He says it is important to make policy makers understand they must take appropriate decisions based on the regional forecasts they receive.

世界气象组织的气候专家柯里说，气象学家正设法让决策者更认真地对待他们发出的警告。他说，他们正设法研究如何能更好地交流天气和气候信息。他说，让决策者懂得他们必须根据所获得的区域预测信息作出正确的决定是非常重要的。