中国将取消玉米临时收储政策 China pledges to end corn stockpiling

China has pledged to eliminate a costly corn stockpiling policy that has hit world markets and left it with more than a year’s worth of stock in its silos.

中国已承诺取消代价高昂的玉米临时收储政策，这项政策对全球市场造成了冲击。

A policy of buying corn at government-set minimum prices that were up to 50 per cent above market prices has turned into an expensive dilemma for Beijing. Policymakers feared unloading the stocks would depress prices and discourage farmers from planting, thus endangering national food security.

对中国政府来说，以政府制定的高于市场价多达50%的最低价收购玉米的政策，已导致一种代价昂贵的两难困境。中国政策制定者担心去库存会压低粮价、打击农民种地的积极性，进而危及国家粮食安全。

The State Administration of Grain said in a statement on Tuesday that it would replace the stockpiling system with subsidies to farmers when prices dipped, starting with the upcoming harvest in the autumn. It would also encourage large state-owned companies to buy from farmers at market prices.

周二，中国国家粮食局(State Administration of Grain)在一份声明中表示，从今年秋天的收获季开始，将用粮价下跌时对农民实施补贴来取代临时收储政策。此外，它还会鼓励大型国有企业以市场价从农民手中买粮。

“It’s just an initial step. More needs to be done,” said Ma Wenfeng of Beijing Orient Agriculture Consultancy, a critic of the stockpiling policy. According to forecasts from the US Department of Agriculture, corn stocks in China at the end of the 2015/16 crop year are expected to be 113m tonnes, more than half of global inventories.

临时收储政策的批评者、北京东方艾格农业咨询公司(Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant)分析师马文峰表示：“这只迈出了第一步，还有更多要做的。”美国农业部(Department of Agriculture)的预测显示，2015-16作物年度末，中国玉米库存会达到1.13亿吨，超过全球库存的一半。

A similar policy to address a gross surplus in cotton stockpiles has been under way for two years, but has failed to significantly reduce the size of China’s reserves, which account for an estimated 60 per cent of world supplies. Reserves have stayed stubbornly high in large part because prices are set too high at state auctions, so the stored cotton — most of which is of inferior quality to the latest harvest — fails to sell.

一项为化解棉花库存严重过剩而出台的类似政策已实施了两年，但该政策未能大幅降低中国棉花储备的规模——中国的棉花储备估计相当于全球供应量的60%。棉花储备居高不下，很大程度上是由于政府拍卖过程中定价过高、导致库存棉花卖不出去——这些库存棉花的品质大多劣于最新收获的棉花。

“Cotton stocks are high because they haven’t sold out the reserves and they still buy in bulk from the bingtuan,” Mr Ma said, referring to the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, a paramilitary group of Han Chinese settlers along the border with Central Asia. “Corn doesn’t require the state to buy in bulk.”

马文峰表示：“棉花库存高企，是因为储备棉还没有卖完，而且他们仍在从兵团大量买入。玉米则不需要政府大量买入。”他这句话里提到的新疆生产建设兵团，是中国与中亚边境地带由汉族移民组成的准军事组织。

China said it would lower state-set corn prices in September but that still left Chinese prices some way above world prices. The gap lifted 2015 imports to record highs and has encouraged smuggling and other misdeeds. Dalian corn prices for May are currently at Rmb1,700 a tonne — the equivalent of $6.61 a bushel — compared with CBOT May corn that is trading at $3.71 a bushel.

中国已表示，会在9月份下调政府设定的玉米价格，但下调后的价格仍比全球价格高一些。这一价差将2015年中国玉米进口量推升至创纪录高点，并鼓励了走私和其他不端行为。目前，大连商品交易所5月份交割的玉米期货的价格为每吨1700元人民币，相当于每蒲式耳6.61美元。相比之下，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT) 5月份交割的玉米期货的价格只为每蒲式耳3.71美元。

China’s corn imports for the 12 months to March 2015 were 5.5m tonnes, almost 70 per cent higher than the year before, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

美国农业部数据显示，在截至2015年3月的12个月里，中国玉米进口量达550万吨，同比增长近70%。

Many questions remain. The ministry of finance budget released earlier this March did not include provisions for subsidies to farmers, despite expectations that it would. And grain industry insiders also expect the state will have to write off the value of stocks that have deteriorated.

目前依然存在许多问题。在本月早些时候发布的中国财政部预算中，并不包含为补贴农民预留的款项，尽管人们预期它会预留。此外，粮食产业内部的人士还预计，政府将不得不冲销已变质存货的价值。

An end to the stockpiling policy does not necessarily mean that China or the world will be flooded with grains of competitive quality to those produced elsewhere. A Chinese television expose entitled “Rats in the Granary” revealed that state granaries in the north-east breadbasket were buying old and inferior grain at discounted prices.

临时收储政策的终结不一定意味着，品质相对于其他地区所产粮食更具竞争力的粮食将大量涌入中国或全球市场。中国一期名为《粮仓“硕鼠”》(Rats in the Granary)的电视节目曾曝光称，东北产粮区多个国有粮仓在以折扣价买入陈粮和劣质粮。

Anecdotal evidence suggests that is true for wheat, cotton and rice warehouses as well.

坊间证据显示，这种现象在小麦、棉花和大米仓库中同样存在。

Last week the chief executive of Louis Dreyfus Company, one of the world’s biggest agricultural traders, said it could take China 18 months to run down its stockpiles, assuming they were in good condition.

上周，路易达孚(Louis Dreyfus)首席执行官贡萨洛•拉米雷斯•马蒂亚雷纳(Gonzalo Ramírez Martiarena)表示，假定库存质量良好，中国可能需要18个月的时间来消化掉它们。路易达孚是全球最大的农产品交易商之一。

“It is very difficult to store grain for many, many years,” said Gonzalo Ramírez Martiarena. “If they are doing the rotation properly then maybe they have good quality stocks.”

贡萨洛•拉米雷斯•马蒂亚雷纳表示：“将粮食储存许多许多年是非常困难的。如果储粮轮换措施得当，他们也许会拥有质量不错的库存。”