阿迪达斯须开源节流 Adidas go faster stripes

The margin between victory and defeat on the sports field is often narrow. For German sportswear group Adidas, narrow margins are a problem off the field, too. Back in 2010, its business plan called for operating margins of 11 per cent by 2015. Full-year published on Thursday showed them at 6.5 per cent. Kasper Rorsted, who takes over as chief executive later this year, has plenty to do.

在运动场上，胜利和失败之间的差距往往很小。对德国运动品牌阿迪达斯(Adidas)来说，运动场外的利润率太窄也是个问题。2010年，该品牌的商业计划要求到2015年实现11%的营业利润率。本周四发布的全年业绩报告显示实际只达到6.5%。将于今年晚些时候出任该公司首席执行官的罗思德(Kasper Rorsted)有好多工作要做。

An obvious first move would be to sell the golf division, TaylorMade adidas-Golf, whose sales fell 13 per cent (at unchanged exchanges rates) during 2015. Its future is already under review; based on the valuation of US-listed Callaway, TaylorMade could fetch perhaps 800m. However, while there are plenty of valid reasons to sell TaylorMade, it is only 5 per cent of sales so the effect of a disposal on margins would be limited. Selling Reebok, another underperformer, would have more impact, but Reebok’s sales and profits are at least growing and it is more integral to the group.

第一步显然是出售其高尔夫用具子公司——阿迪达斯泰勒梅(TaylorMade)高尔夫，其在2015年期间销售下跌了13%（按不变汇率计算）。其未来已经受到评估；基于在美国上市的高尔夫球具公司卡拉威(Callaway)的估值，泰勒梅应该能卖得8亿欧元。然而，虽然有足够多的正当理由出售泰勒梅，但它只占阿迪达斯销售的5%，所以处置这块业务对利润率的影响有限。出售另一个业绩表现不佳的业务部门锐步(Reebok)效果会更大，但锐步的销售和利润至少还在增长，而且跟整个集团更不可分。

More durable results would come from cutting running costs. Gross margins at Adidas are similar to US rivals but at the operating level margins are lower. Assuming that its higher marketing spend (14 per cent of sales) is sacrosanct, that leaves about 4.9bn of other costs. Adidas says they will fall this year. They need to: they were 29 per cent of sales in 2015, compared with 22 per cent at Nike.

更加耐久的结果将来自削减运营成本。阿迪达斯的毛利润率跟美国同行相似，但运营层面的利润率更低。假设其较高的营销支出（相当于销售的14%）神圣不可侵犯，那就只能对余下的大约49亿欧元其他成本动手。阿迪达斯称这部分成本今年将会下降。它们必须得减少：它们相当于2015年销售的29%，而耐克(Nike)的这个比例是22%。

Another long-term problem lurks in Mr Rorsted’s in-tray: North America. The rate of sales growth there last year was half that of Latin America and a third of European and Chinese levels. Profit fell two-fifths and Adidas has lost its number two spot in the US, the world’s biggest market, to Under Armour.

罗思德还面对另一个长期隐患：北美市场。去年那里的销售增长是拉美市场的一半，欧洲和中国市场的三分之一。利润下跌了五分之二，而且阿迪达斯在世界第一大市场美国被Under Armour夺去了第二大的位置。

The bad news is that the sheer size of the US market means Adidas would need to take a lot of market share in places like China to offset continued attrition in the US. The good news is that operational gearing means small improvements in sales there would provide a strong boost to profit.

坏消息是，美国市场的庞大规模意味着，阿迪达斯可能需要在中国这样的地方夺得大量市场份额，才能抵消它在美国不断失去的地盘。好消息是，经营杠杆意味着，即使是小幅的销售好转也能强有力地提振利润。

Mr Rorsted’s labours will be made easier by Adidas’s forecast 10 to 12 per cent sales growth this year (helped by major sporting events). But his record has not gone unnoticed. Since his appointment was announced, Adidas shares have risen 18 per cent, beating the Dax, and the valuation gap with Nike has narrowed. Two activist investors have been given supervisory board seats. No pressure, then.

今年阿迪达斯的销售增长预期为10%-12%（得益于大型体育盛会），这让罗思德的活儿轻松了些。但他的职业记录并未被市场错过。自从他上任的消息公布以来，阿迪达斯的股价已上涨了18%，跑赢Dax指数，跟耐克之间的估值差距也缩小了。两名维权投资人获得监事会席位。看来没什么压力了。