圣诞随想 找到感恩的理由

When the headlines are dominated by heart-rending events such as refugee crises and terrifying ones like mass shootings, it can be difficult to carry on the holiday tradition of giving thanks. It becomes easier, though, when we get past the immediacy of the news and examine some important trends in the world.

当媒体头条充斥着难民危机等令人悲痛的事件和大规模枪击等恐怖新闻时，我们很难保持作感恩祷告的节日传统。不过，当我们越过这些眼前的新闻，把目光投向当今世界的一些重要趋势，感恩就会变得容易。

We recently learnt, for example, that global greenhouse gas emissions are likely to decrease in 2015, thanks in large part to a slowdown in Chinese growth and to faster-than-expected progress with clean technologies such as wind and solar. This downturn might be reversed in coming years, especially if India and other developing countries continue to grow along their current high emissions trajectory, but it’s still good news. As I wrote here before, it’s part of a wonderful trend visible across many environmental indicators. In important ways, we are learning to tread more lightly on our planet.

比如，最近我们了解到，2015年全球温室气体排放量可能会减少，在很大程度上得益于中国增长放缓，以及风能和太阳能等清洁能源技术的发展快于预期。这一趋势在未来几年内可能发生逆转，尤其是如果印度和其他发展中国家沿着当前的高排放轨迹发展的话，但这仍然算是好消息。正如我以前撰文指出的，这是在许多环保指标上可见的可喜趋势的一部分。在一些重要方面，我们正开始学会更加小心谨慎对待自己的星球。

We are also lifting more people more quickly out of dire poverty than ever before. Careful evidence compiled by Max Roser as part of his invaluable Our World in Dataproject shows that even as the world’s population has increased greatly over the past 25 years, the total number of people living in extreme poverty has plummeted. This autumn, the World Bank reported that less than 10 per cent of the world’s population now live on less than $1.90 a day (as measured in 2011 dollars, adjusted for purchasing power parity). In 1990, the equivalent figure was more than 35 per cent.

我们也在以空前快的速度让更多人脱离赤贫。马克斯圠泽(Max Roser)在他极具价值的项目“Our World in Data”中汇编的翔实数据显示，过去25年里，即使世界人口大幅增加，但赤贫人口总数直线下降。今年秋天，世界银行(World Bank)称，如今世界不到10%的人口每天的生活费低于1.90美元（按2011年美元币值计算，经过了购买力平价调整）。1990年，这个比例高于35%。

How was this unprecedented increase in prosperity accomplished? You’d be hard pressed, I think, to attribute it to anything except some combination of better government, smarter interventions, increasing globalisation and technological progress. Everyone has their thoughts about the relative importance of these four factors. My own view is that the last two — trade and technology — should get most of the credit. And technology helps not only by facilitating trade, but also by directly improving people’s ability to earn a living and manage their finances.

这种前所未有的繁荣程度提高是如何实现的？我认为，除了更好的政府、更明智的干预、更高的全球化程度和技术进步的综合作用以外，你很难把它归因于其他因素。每个人对于这四个因素的相对重要性有着自己的看法。我认为，后两者——贸易和技术——应该是最重要的因素。技术不仅为贸易提供了便利，而且直接提高了人们谋生和理财的能力。

My favourite demonstration of how simple new technology helps people earn more, even before smartphones and apps show up, is a study the economist Robert Jensen conducted between 1997 and 2001, when the region of Kerala, India, got mobile phone coverage for the first time. Mr Jensen studied how the region’s fishermen used the new communication technology, and how their economic lives changed as a result.

对于简单的新技术如何帮助人们提高收入——甚至在智能手机和应用(app)问世之前——我最喜欢的例子是经济学家罗伯特礠森(Robert Jensen)在1997年至2001年之间进行的一项研究，那时印度喀拉拉邦(Kerala)首次开通了手机网络。詹森的研究展示了该地区的渔民如何利用这一新的通信技术，以及他们的经济状况由此发生了何种变化。

His findings were clear: “The adoption of mobile phones by fishermen and wholesalers was associated with a dramatic reduction in price dispersion, the complete elimination of waste, and near-perfect adherence to the Law of One Price. Both consumer and producer welfare increased.” In short, things got a lot better, and they did so quickly. Mr Jensen’s work reveals that time after time the benefits appeared right after the phones did. It’s one of the clearest demonstrations of cause and effect I’ve seen in the social sciences.

他的研究发现十分清楚：“手机在渔民和批发商中间的普及，与价格离散的显著降低、浪费的完全消除以及一价定律近乎完美的体现存在着关联。消费者和生产者的利益都得到了增进。”简言之，生活变得美好得多，而且改观得非常快。詹森的研究表明，在很多情况下，手机出现后很快就产生效益。这是我在社会科学领域看到的最清晰的因果关系之一。

Once the world’s poorest finally have a bit of money, new technologies are helping them save it and put it to use. The World Bank reports that in 2014 62 per cent of the world’s adults had some kind of financial account. As recently as 2011, that figure was barely over 50 per cent. And the nature of these accounts is changing rapidly. In Sub-Saharan Africa 64m adults have mobile electronic money, and 45 per cent of them have nothing else — no traditional banking account. Across the developing world more than 65 per cent of those within a financial network use it often, depositing money and making or receiving payments at least three times a month.

一旦世界最穷群体终于有了一点钱，新技术就开始帮助他们储蓄，并把钱派上用场。世行报告称，2014年世界62%的成年人拥有某种金融账户。就在不那么久之前的2011年，这个比例勉强高于50%。这些账户的类型在飞速变化。在撒哈拉以南非洲地区，6400万成年人拥有移动电子货币，其中45%的人没有其他账户——没有传统的银行账户。在整个发展中世界，只要是在某个金融网络的服务范围内，就有65%的人经常使用金融服务，每个月存钱以及收付款至少三次。

There is a great deal still to be done for financial inclusion. The gender gap remains large, and billions of adults are still outside any formal system. But the recent trends make me very optimistic. They convince me that we will continue to make rapid progress, and that the world’s poorest will see their prospects improve like never before in history.

我们在金融包容方面仍大有可为。性别差异仍然巨大，数十亿成年人仍在任何正规体系的门外。但近年的趋势让我感到乐观，它们让我相信，我们将继续取得快速进步，世界最穷群体将看到自己的生活前景发生史上从未有过的改观。

Let’s be thankful for that.

让我们为此感恩。