恐袭对旅游业有多大冲击 Terror attacks on tourism hit poor countries the hardest

Killings at a Tunisian museum and on a beach. The downing of a Russian aircraft flying home from Sharm el-Sheikh. And, last month, lethal attacks in Paris on people from many countries attending a concert and a football match, and eating and drinking in bars and restaurants.

今年以来，突尼斯的一家博物馆及一处海滩分别发生了恐怖杀戮。一架俄罗斯客机在从沙姆沙伊赫(Sharm el-Sheikh)飞往国内途中因炸弹破坏而坠毁。上月，在巴黎参加音乐会、观看足球比赛、在酒吧和餐馆享受美食佳酿的许多国家的平民遭到血腥袭击。

It has been a dreadful year for the murder of tourists and of locals enjoying themselves.

就享受生活的游客以及当地人遭到杀戮而言，这是令人恐怖的一年。

These attacks are not new. There have been murderous assaults before, such as the 1997 Luxor killings, the 2002 Bali nightclub bombing and the 2008 attacks on hotels, a railway station and a Jewish centre in Mumbai.

此类袭击并非最近才有。之前也发生过多起凶残的袭击，例如1997年的埃及卢克索屠杀、2002年巴厘岛夜总会爆炸案以及2008年孟买酒店、火车站及犹太人中心遭到的血腥袭击。

For the bereaved and the injured, the memories are permanent. But holidaymakers forget and tourist numbers often pick up again.

对遇难者亲属与伤者而言，这种痛苦的记忆会永远伴随他们。但度假者不久就会遗忘，游客数量往往会再度回升。

How long that takes depends on visitors’ perceptions of how in control the local authorities are, how likely another attack is and how much general instability there is.

实现回升需要多久？这取决于游客的观感（当地政府控制局势的程度、新的袭击发生的可能性以及该国总体不稳定程度）。

After the 2005 London Underground bombings, foreign visitor numbers to the UK barely budged; they rose in 2006. The 2004 bombings of Madrid trains did not affect tourist inflows.

2005年伦敦地铁爆炸案发生后，到访英国的外国游客数量几乎没有变化；2006年还出现了上升。2004年的马德里火车站爆炸案也未对游客流入量造成影响。

By contrast, after initial hesitation, Russia suspended flights to Sharm el-Sheikh. Airlines such as British Airways and easyJet have stopped flights there until January, meaning the Egyptian resort will continue to suffer over the European holiday period.

相比之下，经过最初的犹豫之后，俄罗斯暂停了飞往沙姆沙伊赫的航班。英国航空(British Airways)、EasyJet等航空公司也决定在明年1月之前停飞沙姆沙伊赫航班，这意味着这个埃及度假胜地将在欧洲人假日期间继续遭受损失。

This is a serious blow to Egypt, whose tourism has declined since the Arab uprisings that started in 2010. Sharm el-Sheikh until now had been a rare exception. The Tunisia Live website last week quoted officials saying that country’s tourist industry remained in crisis too.

自2010年“阿拉伯之春”爆发以来，埃及的旅游业已经出现下滑，此次事件对埃及来说又是一次沉重打击。此前沙姆沙伊赫对埃及旅游业来说一直是难得的例外。“突尼斯生活”(Tunisia Live)网站上周援引官员的话称，该国旅游业同样仍处于危机中。

There are differences between the various attacks. The London and Madrid bombings (and November’s Paris attacks) were aimed at the general population. The Sharm el-Sheikh and Tunisian assaults specifically targeted tourists.

各地发生的这些袭击之间也有区别。伦敦、马德里的爆炸案（以及11月的巴黎恐怖袭击）针对的是普通民众。而俄罗斯客机坠毁以及突尼斯发生的袭击都是专门针对游客的。

But the contrasting post-attack experiences prompt the question: do rich countries’ holiday industries find it easier to bounce back after terrorist killings than poorer ones?

但袭击发生后的鲜明对比带来一个问题：在恐怖杀戮发生后，富裕国家的度假产业比穷国同行更容易复苏吗？

The data seem to bear that out, says Yeganeh Morakabati, a Bournemouth university associate professor who has studied the relationship between tourism and terrorism. There is one exception, she says: the 9/11 attacks in the US in 2001.

伯恩茅斯大学(Bournemouth university)研究旅游业与恐怖主义之间关联的副教授耶加内(Yeganeh Morakabati)表示，数据似乎证实这一点。她说，有一个例外：2001年美国发生的9/11恐怖袭击。

A working paper from the Department of Homeland Security says that, after 9/11, the fall in international visitors to the US was “immediate and precipitous”. It was not until 2007 that foreign tourist arrivals returned to near their pre-9/11 levels. There were other factors that damaged the US tourist industry, the paper says. In 2001 and 2002, the world economy went into a downturn and air travel dropped. The US also introduced a stricter visa policy which may have put visitors off.

美国国土安全部(Department of Homeland Security)的一份工作报告称，9/11事件后，到访美国的外国游客数量出现了“立即、急剧”下降。直至2007年，外国游客数量才回升至接近9/11事件前的水平。该报告称，还有其他因素使美国旅游业受损。2001年和2002年，世界经济陷入衰退，航空旅行的人数减少。美国还实行了有可能让游客却步的更严格的签证政策。

Ms Morakabati says that the spectacular nature of the 9/11 attacks may have contributed to the US being an exception to wealthy countries’ tourism being less affected.

Morakabati说，9/11恐怖袭击的惨烈程度可能使美国成了富裕国家旅游业较少受恐怖袭击影响的一个例外。

Even then, the US found ways to compensate for the drop in foreign visitors — pointing to another difference between rich and poorer countries: wealthy ones have more domestic tourists. If foreign visitors stop coming, locals take their place. The US working paper says American visitors spurred Hawaii’s tourist industry to full recovery by 2003.

即便如此，美国找到了弥补外国游客数量下降的各种方法，这也突显了富裕国家与较贫穷国家之间的又一个不同：富裕国家拥有更多的国内游客。如果外国游客不来，当地人可以取而代之。该报告称，在美国游客的推动下，夏威夷的旅游业到2003年就实现了全面复苏。

Poorer countries also suffer, after a terror attack, because they have less diversified economies, Ms Morakabati adds. It is harder for displaced hotel and bar workers to find jobs elsewhere. A drop in tourism badly affects related sectors such as agriculture as hotels and restaurants stop buying food.

Morakabati补充说，恐怖袭击对较贫穷国家的危害更为严重，因为他们的经济不够多元化。失业的酒店、酒吧员工更难在别的行业找到工作。旅游业下滑还会严重影响农业等相关行业，因为酒店和餐厅不再采购食品。

Above all, poorer countries suffer from being seen as more dangerous. They can also suffer by association. Last month, a Moroccan hotelier told the Financial Times that she had struggled to fill her rooms since the Tunisian beach attack — even though the two countries do not share a border. What can poorer countries do to mitigate the damage to their tourist industries after a terrorist attack?

最重要的是，较贫穷国家还要承受被人们视为更加危险而带来的损失。他们还可能受到连带影响。上月，一位摩洛哥酒店老板对英国《金融时报》说，自突尼斯海滩袭击案发生以来，她一直在为酒店的入住率发愁——尽管摩洛哥与突尼斯根本不相邻。较贫穷国家能做什么来减少恐怖袭击对本国旅游行业造成的损害呢？

They can increase security and hope nothing similar happens for a long time. But countries with a history of civil disorder — or countries in a region of civil disorder — have a bigger battle to win back travellers’ confidence than wealthier, stable ones.

他们可以加强安保，期望很长时期内不发生类似的事情。但是，相比较富裕、稳定的国家，有过内乱历史的国家——或处于战乱地区的国家——需要做出更大努力才能赢回游客信心。

Their tourist industries are particularly vulnerable. Tourism also represents openness and pleasure, which is why terrorists target it.

这些国家的旅游业尤其脆弱。旅游业还代表着开放与快乐，而这正是恐怖分子选择旅游业为目标的原因。