中国出口并未丧失竞争力 China's export story is stronger than headlines suggest

On the face of it, it makes no sense that the international flower industry should be headquartered in the Netherlands. The feeble sunshine and predisposition for a large number of rainy days would not make the Netherlands the first choice for anyone starting a flower-growing business today – if not for the fact that the business, and its integral supply chains, are already there. This is a huge competitive advantage for a new entrant, who can benefit from such things as the sophisticated Dutch flower auctions, the flower-growers’ associations and advanced research centres.

从表面上看，把国际鲜花行业总部设在荷兰是没道理的。如果不考虑荷兰已经形成鲜花行业以及完整的供应链的话，鉴于那里微弱的日照及大量阴雨天气，如今任何人都不会把荷兰作为开启鲜花种植生意的首选。荷兰已有的鲜花产业和完整供应链对于新的市场进入者来说是巨大的竞争优势，他们可以从荷兰成熟的鲜花拍卖、鲜花种植者协会以及先进的科研中心等方面获益匪浅。

Academic Michael Porter uses this very example to illustrate his cluster theory of trade development, whereby whole supply chains “cluster” together. Another well-known cluster is the auto manufacturing industry in Michigan in the US. Over 50 per cent of North American auto companies are based in Michigan, and 46 of the top 50 global auto suppliers have operations in the state. Further south in the US, around Dalton in Georgia, over 90 per cent of all functional carpets are produced. It is why Dalton is called the “carpet capital of the world”.

学者迈克尔波特(Michael Porter)利用这个例子来阐释他的贸易发展集群理论——即整个供应链“聚集”在一起。另一个众所周知的集群是位于美国密歇根州的汽车制造业。超过50%的北美汽车公司都位于密歇根，全球排名前50的汽车供应商中有46家在密歇根有业务。在美国的更南方——佐治亚州道尔顿(Dalton)附近，超过90%的功能性地毯在此生产。这也是道尔顿被称为“世界地毯之都”的原因。

It’s partly because of the cluster effect that we believe Chinese exports will be sufficiently competitive to ride out the economic slowdown and emerging market uncertainty. Clustering is certainly nothing new to China – regional specialisations have always existed. A few centuries ago, tailors from Cixi (in the Zhejiang sub-provincial city of Ningbo) were known for their skills in clothing manufacturing and even now the area is a major centre for textile manufacturing.

我们相信中国的出口业将以足够的竞争力安然渡过此轮经济放缓和新兴市场动荡，部分原因正是集群效应。集群对于中国来说自然没什么新鲜的——这里一直存在地域专业化。几个世纪以前，慈溪（位于浙江省宁波市）的裁缝以其制衣的精湛手艺而闻名，即使现在那里仍然是纺织制造业的主要中心。

However, advanced industrial clusters are a More recent phenomenon. Think of the city of Dongguan in the Pearl River Delta, where a large number of Taiwan technology companies cluster together. Other examples are the photovoltaic industrial cluster in Wuxi (Jiangsu province), electronics in Shenzhen, and Foshan in south China, where household appliances and ceramics clusters have evolved.

然而，先进的产业集群则是近来才出现的现象。想一想位于珠三角的东莞市，大批台湾科技公司聚集在这里。其他的例子有，江苏无锡的光伏产业集群、深圳的电子产业、以及佛山成熟的家用电器业和陶瓷业集群。

The emergence of these clusters is changing Asian supply chains. Goods now make fewer stops along the way before final assembly in China. More and more production is taking place on the mainland (including Hong Kong), rather than in other parts of Asia, particularly ASEAN, the 10-member Association of South East Asian Nations.

这些集群的出现正在改变亚洲的供应链。如今商品在中国进入最终装配之前停靠的站点变少了。越来越多的生产过程在中国内地（以及香港）完成，而不是在亚洲其他地区，尤其不是在10国组成的东盟(Asean)地区。

There is further evidence that corroborates this view. As the chart below illustrates, China is making more of the parts that go into its finished goods production. It shows that the share of imported components in China’s total exports has fallen from a peak of 60 per cent in the mid-1990s to around 35 per cent today. This reflects the progressive substitution of domestic inputs for foreign inputs by Chinese firms, possibly because China boasts clusters of highly efficient suppliers that other countries struggle to replicate.

还有进一步的证据来证实这一观点。正如下图所显示的那样，中国正制造越来越多的进入成品生产的零件。该图显示，中国出口产品中进口零件的占比已经从1990年代中期巅峰时的60%，下滑至如今的35%左右。这反映出中国公司用国产投入品替代外国投入品的飞跃，这可能是由于中国拥有其引以为荣的别国难以复制的高效供应商集群。

Therefore, the common picture of China losing competitiveness and being “hollowed-out” as manufacturers move to lower labour cost geographies such as Vietnam and Bangladesh is not entirely correct. China actually still dominates large parts of the manufacturing food chain. Indeed, we find evidence that it is going upmarket to pursue higher-value-added products and that it is supported in its efforts by having a large number of industrial clusters (it should be noted, however, that even in labour intensive industries such as clothing, China’s share of global clothing exports has actually risen from 42.6 per cent in 2011 to 43.1 per cent in 2013).

因此，通常画面中描绘的中国失去竞争力、并随着制造商向越南、孟加拉国等劳动力成本较低的地域转移而被“空心化”的景象，并非完全正确的。中国仍然主导着大部分的制造业食物链。实际上，我们发现的证据表明，中国正在进军高端市场以追求高附加值产品，并且其拥有的大量产业集群支撑着这一努力（然而，值得注意的是，即使是在服装这一劳动密集型产业，中国在全球出口中的份额也已经从2011年的42.6%上升至2013年的43.1%）。

So, the fear of Chinese exports losing competitiveness is in our view misplaced. The most compelling question for China and indeed, the global economy, continues to be one of demand. Export growth cannot charge ahead when recovery in much of the world economy remains fragile. Once things get back on track, China has what it takes to continue its dynamic export story.

因此，在我们看来，对中国出口失去竞争力的担忧放错了地方。中国、甚至世界经济面临的最紧迫的问题仍然是需求问题。在世界经济的大部分仍然复苏乏力的情况下，出口增长也无法独善其身。一旦事情回到正轨，中国有条件继续抒写其充满活力的出口传奇。