比特币并未淡出视线

Rand Paul loves to present himself as a political pioneer. This week, however, the Kentucky senator and darling of the Tea Party is carving out new frontiers in finance. Announcing a 2016 presidential bid on Tuesday, he said he would collect donations via bitcoin. That makes him the first US politician to raise funds using thecryptocurrency. The move is likely to be wildly popular with his libertarian supporters, given the Republican party’s deep suspicions of fiat currency and the US Federal Reserve.

兰德•保罗(Rand Paul)十分喜欢以政治先锋的形象现身。然而，最近这位肯塔基州参议员、茶党(Tea Party)红人开始在金融领域开辟新土。在宣布参加2016年美国总统竞选时，他称自己将通过比特币接受捐款。这使他成为首位将利用加密电子货币(cryptocurrency)筹集资金的美国政客。鉴于共和党对法定货币及美联储(Fed)极度不信任，此举可能会广受其自由派支持者的欢迎。

But there is another bitcoin saga that investors should watch. Behind the scenes Wall Street financiers, too, are embarking on market experiments — not in relation to the retail payments or donations with which bitcoin is normally associated but rather the wholesale financial world. Notably, initiatives are being launched to use bitcoin for back-office financial markets settlements. And, while they are at an early stage, they could become important; not least because they are attracting support from wealthy investors.

但是，还有另一场关于比特币的大戏值得投资者关注。华尔街的金融人士正在幕后开启市场实验——这些实验无关于通常与比特币联系在一起的零售支付或捐款，而与批发金融有关。特别是一些利用比特币进行金融市场后台结算的项目正在筹备之中。而且，尽管这些项目仍处于早期阶段，它们可能会变得十分重要；尤其是因为它们吸引了富有的投资者的支持。

To understand what is going on, think for a moment about the six-year-old bitcoin technology. Cryptocurrencies are often described in popular culture, and by Mr Paul’s Tea Party followers, as “electronic money”. But it is better to visualise them as financial ledgers — a public record book that keeps track of how many units of the currency each user’s bitcoin “wallet” contains.

为了解眼下的情形，我们应该利用片刻时间思考一下已诞生6年的比特币技术。在流行文化以及保罗的茶党追随者中，加密电子货币常常被描述为“电子货币”(electronic money)。但是，更准确地说，应该把它们视为金融账簿——一个记录着每个用户的比特币“钱包”中包含多少数量比特币的公共记录簿。

The ledger is mathematically signed in a way that prevents unauthorised doctoring. To own a bitcoin is to possess a secret code that identifies you as the holder of a particular wallet, to whose contents the public ledger (or “blockchain”) attests. Trust in the system is created not by a third party (a central bank, say, as with official currencies) but by a type of cryptography. This can make bitcoin a store of value (albeit a lousy one recently; the price has roughly halved in the past 12 months).

该账簿采用数学化签名，以此防止非授权篡改。拥有一枚比特币即拥有一个密码——它将你确定为一个特定钱包的所有者，公共账簿（或者叫“区块链”(BlockChain)）会证明钱包内东西的归属。对系统的信任，并非由第三方（比如说，对官方货币体系的信任就是由作为第三方的央行建立的），而是由一种密码系统建立起来。这可以使比特币成为一种价值储存手段（尽管最近成了糟糕的储值手段；过去12个月比特币的价格下跌近一半。）

But the cryptoledger can also be used to make financial transactions through blockchain technology, which has three notable features. First, in theory a blockchain can execute transactions instantly. Second, blockchains can also perform transactions anonymously. Third, transactions can occur without the need to use third parties, or pay fees to a bank or clearing house. That is because the “cost” of running the bitcoin network is borne by the anonymous owners of servers that connect computer code in exchange for receiving new bitcoins as the system expands (this is known as “mining”).

但是这种加密账簿也可以用于通过区块链技术进行金融交易，该技术有三个显著特点。第一，理论上讲区块链可以即时执行交易。第二，区块链也可以匿名完成交易。第三，无需使用第三方、或向银行（或清算机构）支付费用，就可以进行交易。这是因为比特币体系扩大过程中的运行成本，由那些连接计算机代码、以获得新比特币（这个过程就是所谓的“挖矿”）的服务器的匿名所有者承担了。

These features make the system attractive for retail-style trades and money transfers, legitimate and illicit. But they could theoretically be useful for financial markets. Bankers often say they are at the cutting edge of innovation, but many of the systems they use are lamentably old-fashioned. It can take days, and significant fees, to settle trades in loans or derivatives. That makes the system ripe for disruption.

这些特性使比特币对零售型交易和资金转账（无论是合法的还是非法的）都颇具吸引力。但理论上，这些特性可能对金融市场很有用。银行业人士总是说他们处于创新的前沿，但他们使用的很多系统极为老旧。要结算贷款或者衍生品交易往往要花费数天时间和不菲的费用。这让金融系统亟需被颠覆。

And some names are already jumping in. Last month, Blythe Masters, the former JPMorgan banker, unveiled a company called Digital Asset Holdings to develop bitcoin-based settlement systems. Don Wilson, a Chicago markets luminary, and Sunil Hirani, a derivatives and exchanges veteran, are also working with the company. Separately, JPMorgan Chase has applied for a patent for a technology that sounds similar to bitcoin; and patents are pending from other banks and financial groups.

一些知名人士和机构已踊跃加入其中。上月，前摩根大通(JPMorgan)银行家布莱思•马斯特斯(Blythe Masters)将一家名叫Digital Asset Holdings的公司带入公众视野之内，这家公司在开发比特币结算系统。闻名芝加哥金融市场的唐•威尔逊(Don Wilson)，以及衍生品和外汇专家苏尼尔•希拉尼(Sunil Hirani)也为该公司工作。此外，摩根大通也申请了一项听上去与比特币类似的技术专利；其他银行和金融企业的专利也正在申请中。

It remains to be seen if these initiatives succeed. One obstacle is that the stance of regulators is unclear. Another is that the bitcoin name carries stigma because the currency has sometimes been used by criminals. Then there is the issue of anonymity. DAH says it wants to provide much-needed transparency for bitcoin. This will be hard in a system organised by anonymous computer scientists — unless DAH itself becomes a third-party intermediary and charges fees, in which case part of the attraction of bitcoin disappears.

这些计划是否能成功还有待观察。其中一个障碍是监管者立场不明。另一个是比特币因有时被犯罪者利用而沾染了污名。然后还有匿名性的问题。Digital Asset Holdings表示想为比特币提供其亟需的透明度。然而，在一个由匿名计算机专家管理的系统中，要做到这一点十分困难，除非该公司本身也成为一个第三方中介机构，并收取费用，但那样的话比特币会丧失部分魅力。

Such problems do not deter the enthusiasts; after all, they point out, most financial innovations appear unlikely to take root at first. When people such as Ms Masters developed credit derivatives three decades ago, for example, they seemed truly bizarre.

这些问题都无法阻拦比特币狂热者；他们指出，毕竟大多数金融创新一开始看上去都不太可能成功。比如，当马斯特斯等人30年前发明出信用衍生品的时候，那些产品似乎也很奇怪。

So perhaps the real lesson for investors is that the focus on “innovation” is changing: in an ultra-low interest rate world, the idea of creating financial products looks less exciting. It is boring back-office technology that is the new innovation frontier. Consider it another consequence of the peculiar post-crisis financial system — or, as Mr Paul’s supporters might argue, an era when money is so distorted that normal assumptions are turned upside down.

因此，对投资者而言或许真正的教训是“创新”的焦点在变化：在超低利率的环境下，创造金融产品的想法看上去不那么令人兴奋。乏味的后台技术才是新的创新前沿。就把它看做奇特的后危机时代金融体系的另一个后果吧，保罗的支持者可能会说，这个时代金钱已被扭曲至此，以至于常规的假设都被颠倒了。