FT社评 希腊须与欧盟合作

Syriza is as radical as any party to take power within the eurozone. Hardly any of Greece’s new cabinet have experience of government; predictably, its first week was studded with chaotic interventions, including a clumsy blunder into EU-Russian relations.

希腊激进左翼联盟(Syriza)与欧元区任何掌权的政党一样激进。希腊新内阁成员几乎都没有政府治理的经验；不出所料，其执政第一周就满是混乱的干预措施，包括稀里糊涂地闯入俄欧关系问题之中。

Syriza’s rhetoric is still more suited to a university seminar than a serious programme of government.

希腊激进左翼联盟的说辞依旧更适合一场大学研讨会，而非一项严肃的政府计划。

To some on Europe’s northern fringe, just to meet Syriza is to crumble before blackmail. If you believe half of his past rhetoric, its leader Alexis Tsipras plans to dance wildly on the crumbling edge of the eurozone, to scare its thriftier members into accepting his demands. These would include debt repudiation, the unravelling of structural reforms, and rehiring thousands more civil servants. On this account Syriza would return Greece to the failed clientelism of the past and embolden anti-austerity parties everywhere.

对于欧洲北部边缘的一些国家来说，满足希腊激进左翼联盟就等于在勒索面前屈服。如果你对该党领导人亚历克西斯•齐普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)过去说的话将信将疑，那么他现在的计划是在摇摇欲坠的欧元区边缘疯狂乱舞，以恐吓欧元区较节俭的成员国接受他的要求。这些要求将包括拒付债务、放弃结构性改革，以及重新增加数千名公务员。以此，希腊激进左翼联盟将使希腊回到过去失败了的裙带主义，并鼓舞各地反紧缩的政党。

Many EU leaders would rather take their chances with “Grexit” than cave in to threats, even if this risked a deeper eurozone recession. But as Yanis Varoufakis tours European capitals to win support for a new deal, Greece’s finance minister deserves a full and even sympathetic hearing.

许多欧盟国家领导人宁愿在希腊退出欧元区问题上碰碰运气，也不愿对威胁屈服，即使这样做面临加剧欧元区衰退的风险。但随着亚尼斯•瓦鲁法基斯(Yanis Varoufakis)访问欧洲各国以便赢得对新协议的支持，这位希腊财长值得我们全面甚至抱以同情地去倾听。

Syriza’s ascent to power highlights the reality that although the debate about Greece is couched in highly technocratic language, it is in essence thoroughly political. Most Greek debts are owed to other EU states. It is their governments that would carry the consequences of Greece defaulting or leaving the eurozone. This provides the best rationale for Mr Varoufakis’ refusal to deal with the “troika” of the European Central Bank, European Commission and IMF, and instead talk directly to national politicians.

希腊激进左翼联盟的掌权凸显了当前现实，尽管围绕希腊的辩论都是高度的技术官僚语言，但它本质上完全是政治性的。希腊大多数债务都是欠其他欧盟国家的。这些国家的政府将承担希腊违约或者退出欧元区的后果。这为瓦鲁法基斯拒绝与“三驾马车”(troika)——欧洲央行(ECB)、欧盟委员会(European Commission)以及国际货币基金组织(IMF)——打交道，而与各国领导人直接磋商供了最好的理由。

He may also be right to query the technical expertise of the troika. The IMF has already admitted to having been too optimistic about Greek growth. More debt should have been restructured. The impressive progress made towards cutting Greece’s fiscal and trade deficits is mostly an automatic consequence of the collapse in domestic demand and living standards that brought Syriza to power.

他对三驾马车专业技术的质疑或许也是对的。IMF已经承认，之前对希腊经济增长过于乐观。本该已对更多的债务进行重组。希腊在削减财政和贸易赤字上取得的明显进展，基本上是国内需求崩溃和生活水平下降的自然结果——而正是内需和生活水平的下降致使希腊激进左翼联盟上台。

Moreover, what merit there may be in the troika’s emphasis on “structural reform” has proven patchy in implementation. Greece certainly has too many over-regulated industries and outdated practices, and a long tradition of overmanning the public sector. It was right to assume that Greek governments would need external impetus to change, and its creditors are quite entitled to resist the reversal of reform that Syriza has called for.

此外，三驾马车所强调的“结构性改革”的优点在实施中已被证明差强人意。希腊的确有太多过度监管的行业和过时的做法，以及公共部门人员冗余的长期传统。这样的假设是正确的：希腊政府需要外部动力推动变革，而其债权人也有权抵制希腊激进左翼联盟所呼吁的逆向改革。

But what matters more to the reform of the economy is the continuing dominance of an oligarchic class. This includes a banking sector with over 40 per cent of loans non-performing, which drags on the rest of industry. A vigorous recovery may require a thorough banking recapitalisation that converts debt into equity and replaces current management. Under the tutelage of the troika, very little was achieved in confronting the oligarchs, or on tackling endemic tax avoidance. Syriza should be able to make more progress, simply because it has not yet acquired the deep ties with wealthy interests that bind the traditional parties.

但是，对希腊经济改革影响更大的是寡头阶层持续的统治地位。这包括不良贷款超过40%、并拖累其他行业的银行业。经济强劲复苏可能需要一次彻底的银行资本重组，将债务转化为股本并替换现有的管理层。在三驾马车的指导下，希腊在对付寡头或解决大范围避税方面鲜有成绩。希腊激进左翼联盟应该能有更大的作为，因为它尚未与那些将传统政党捆绑在一起的富人利益集团结下深厚的关系。

A fresh look at Greece’s predicament argues for co-operation on both sides. There, Syriza needs allies if it is to take on the oligarchs, restructure its banks and develop a modern system of tax collection. Its European partners must recognise that this is not a simple creditor-debtor relationship in which a concession to one side is a loss to the other. At 175 per cent of gross domestic product, Greece’s debt burden is too high for normal repayment and can be worked off only if the country enjoys sustained growth. The EU is massively invested in Greece. Its negotiating stance must make growth the top priority.

重新审视希腊的困境，我们认为双方应该合作。在这一点上，希腊激进左翼联盟需要盟友来对付寡头、重组银行并建立现代税收制度。其欧洲伙伴必须认识到，双方之间并非一种简单的债权债务关系——向对方让步即是自身损失。高达国内生产总值(GDP)的175%的债务负担使希腊无法正常还款。只有希腊经济保持持续增长，这些债务才可能逐渐偿清。欧盟国家在希腊有大量投资，它们的谈判立场必须将增长放在首位。

This points towards linking debt repayment to Greek GDP. As well as providing Athens with the breathing space needed for reforms to take effect, such instruments explicitly align EU incentives with those in Greece. With a fair wind the creditors may even garner a higher return over the long run.

这指向将偿还债务与希腊GDP挂钩。这些措施除了向雅典方面提供让改革起作用所需的喘息空间，还可以明确地将欧盟与希腊的积极性协调起来。顺利的话，长远来看债权人甚至可能获得更高的回报。

Some of Syriza’s other ideas are barmy. The reason EU member states should talk with Messrs Tsipras and Varoufakis is that within its idealistic platform may be enough sensible radicalism to sketch out the outlines of a deal. If Syriza can be helped towards implementing the good parts and shelving the bad, Greece may have a brighter future.

希腊激进左翼联盟的一些其他想法是愚蠢的。欧盟成员国应该跟齐普拉斯和瓦鲁法基斯谈判的理由是，在其理想主义的政纲内可能存在足够的理性激进主义，从而能够勾勒出一项交易的轮廓。如果希腊激进左翼联盟能够在外界的帮助下兴利除弊，希腊或会拥有一个更光明的未来。