埃克森美孚 北美将成为能源净出口地
North America is likely to be a net exporter of liquid fuels in the next decade, as production grows while demand in the US and Canada stagnates, according to ExxonMobil, the world’s largest listed oil company.
全球最大的上市石油公司埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)表示，随着北美产量增长，而美国和加拿大需求停滞，北美可能在未来十年成为液态燃料的净出口地。
It is the first time the company has made the forecast, following an upward revision of its expectations for North America’s oil production as a result of the boom in shale oil from formations such as the Bakken of North Dakota and the Eagle Ford of south Texas.
这是埃克森美孚首次做出上述预测。此前由于北达科他州的巴肯页岩(Bakken Shale)和得克萨斯州南部的鹰福特(Eagle Ford)等区块的页岩油产量大幅增长，该公司上调了对北美石油产量的预测。Exxon predicted in its latest annual energy outlook, published yesterday, that exports of oil and related liquids from the US, Canada and Mexico would exceed imports after around 2020, thanks to rising output of shale oil, heavy crude from Canada’s oil sands, and natural gas liquids such as ethane.
埃克森美孚在昨日发布的最新年度能源前景展望中预测，得益于页岩油、从加拿大油砂提炼的重质原油以及乙烷等天然气液的产量增长，美国、加拿大和墨西哥的石油和相关液态燃料出口将在2020年左右之后超过进口。
It reflects the company’s argument that tight US restrictions on foreign sales of crude oil, in place since the 1970s, will have to be eased.
这反映出该公司的一个观点，即美国将不得不放松自上世纪70年代出台的针对原油出口的严格限制。Bill Colton, vice-president of strategic planning, said economic logic pointed to US crude exports being liberalised in the next few years, and if the government blocked those sales it would hold back growth of North American production.
埃克森美孚负责企业战略规划的副总裁比尔•科尔顿(Bill Colton)表示，从经济逻辑来看，美国将在今后几年放开原油出口限制，因为如果美国政府阻止这些出口销售，就会抑制北美产量的增长。Exxon also predicted restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions that would have the same impact as a price on emitted carbon dioxide of about $80 a tonne in the US and the EU and about $40 a tonne in China by 2040.
埃克森美孚还预计将有限制温室气体排放的措施出台，其效果将相当于对二氧化碳排放收费——到2040年在美国和欧盟相当于每吨收费约80美元，中国每吨约40美元。It expects global carbon dioxide emissions to peak around 2030 and decline 5 per cent over the following 10 years, as coal is replaced for power generation by gas, nuclear and renewable energy.
该公司预计，随着煤炭发电被天然气、核能和可再生能源发电代替，全球二氧化碳排放将在2030年左右达到峰值，并在随后的十年里下降5%。The principal theme is that demand for energy, including oil, has peaked in developed countries, but will continue to rise strongly in emerging economies as the “global middle class” grows from about 2bn to about 5bn people.
该公司的主要观点是，包括石油在内的能源需求在发达国家已达到峰值，但随着“全球中产阶级”数量从大约20亿人增长至大约50亿人，能源需求在新兴经济体仍会继续强劲增长。Energy efficiency improvements are expected to curb demand as the world economy grows: Exxon expects there will be twice as many cars in the world in 2040, but they will use only the same amount of petrol and diesel because they will be twice as fuel-efficient.
能效改善有望遏制能源需求随着世界经济增长而增长：埃克森美孚预计到2040年全球汽车数量将会增长一倍，但由于能效提高一倍，它们的汽油和柴油使用量不变。Demand is expected to rise, however, for other types of transport, particularly road freight, and Exxon expects the world to be using 115m barrels of oil per day in 2040, up from 89m b/d last year.
然而，预计其他运输方式（特别是公路货运）的需求将会增长，埃克森美孚预测全球在2040年的原油使用量为1.15亿桶/日，而去年是8900万桶/日。Environmental groups criticised the forecasts for reflecting policy objectives. Exxon said their main use is as a framework for its investment decisions.
环保集团批评这些预测反映政策目标。埃克森美孚表示，它们的主要用途是作为其投资决策框架。
