世界禁令日演愈烈 烟草公司好日无多

Smokers in the developed world are out in the cold. Regulators have moved smoking from bars into streets; advertising has moved from screens to, at best, still pictures. Two years ago, Australia introduced “plain” packaging – adorned with such gruesome warnings that the adjective hardly fits.

发达世界的烟民受到了冷落。监管机构已迫使吸烟者从酒吧转战街头，烟草广告也从屏幕上转移到至多是静止的图片上。两年前，澳大利亚还推出了香烟的“平装”包装，但包装上印制的可怕警示可一点儿也不“平淡”。

Yet the stocks have done well. Since late 2008, the top five names in the sector have returned between 144 per cent (Imperial) and 347 per cent (Altria). Most tobacco companies have beaten the 130 per cent return of the MSCI World index. Such resilience may be ending.

然而，烟草公司的股票表现不错。自2008年末以来，5大烟草公司的股价回升幅度在144%（帝国烟草(Imperial)）至347%（奥驰亚(Altria)）之间。大多数烟草公司的股价超过了摩根士丹利资本国际全球指数(MSCI World Index) 130%的涨幅。这样的强韧表现可能要结束了。

This week China, home to 300m smokers and accounting for a third of the world’s tobacco use, according to Euromonitor, announced a ban in Beijing’s indoor public spaces, to commence in June.

本周，北京市政府宣布，从明年6月起，北京室内公共场所将全面禁止吸烟。欧睿信息咨询公司(Euromonitor)的数据显示，中国有3亿烟民，贡献了全球三分之一的烟草消费量。

The Chinese market is dominated by state-owned enterprises and counterfeit goods, so the direct impact on multinationals will be small. But the message is clear. Growth will become harder to find, even in the emerging world.

中国市场由国有企业和假冒伪劣产品主导，因此控烟令对跨国公司的直接影响将会很小。但它传递的信息是明确的。烟草行业将更难找到增长机会，即便在新兴世界。

Last year, tougher regulations hit developed-market volumes and even pricing – often hidden behind tax rises – is softening a bit.

去年，更为严厉的监管打击了发达市场的销售量，甚至定价（通常隐藏在加税背后）也有所松动。

So far this year, both Japan Tobacco and Philip Morris International have seen sales declines accelerate in previously reliable markets such as eastern Europe.

今年迄今以来，日本烟草(Japan Tobacco)和菲利普莫里斯国际公司(Philip Morris International)在东欧等之前可靠市场的销售全都加速下滑。

Forecasts are faltering: expected earnings per share have fallen about one-tenth as the year has progressed. Typical is Philip Morris, with 70 per cent of sales in emerging markets. Since its 2008 spin-off from US-focused parent Altria, the company has achieved annual earnings per share growth of one-tenth. This year, growth will fall 6 per cent.

预期也很惨淡：随着时间的推移，预期每股收益下降了十分之一左右。70%的销售来自新兴市场的菲利普莫里斯国际公司尤为典型。自2008年从其专注于美国市场的母公司奥驰亚拆分出来之后，该公司的每股收益每年增长10%。今年其每股收益将同比下降6%。

Japan Tobacco and British American have a similar tale of woe. And yet the stocks are not cheap, on mid-teens multiples of 2015 EPS.

日本烟草和英美烟草公司(British American)同病相怜。然而，它们的股价并不便宜，2015年的预期市盈率达到15倍左右。

These companies generate lots of cash. Their dividends look safe. But weaker profits could cut into share buybacks. These have long been a key reason to invest in Philip Morris shares.

这些公司产生了大量的现金。它们的股息发放看起来没有问题。但利润下降可能影响到股票回购。股票回购长期以来一直是投资者买入菲利普莫里斯股票的关键原因。

British American had been ramping up buybacks, until its recent investment in Reynolds American. Quitting will be hard.

英美烟草公司在最近投资于雷诺烟草(Reynolds American)之前一直在加大股票回购力度。退出将很艰难。