中国已承诺减排 印度何时行动

For more than 20 years, international climate talks have been dominated by a schism between those who created the problem of climate change (largely the United States and nations of the European Union) and those who would greatly contribute to it moving forward (largely China and India). But as climate negotiators meet in Lima, Peru, this week and next, and news reports are full of gloomy predictions that the negotiations will produce little, there are increasing signs that this stalemate may have been broken. This emerging shift is due in large part to China and its decision to break ranks and join the United States in making commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

20多年来，国际气候谈判中的主要问题，一直是那些造成气候变化问题的国家（主要是美国和欧盟国家）和那些从现在起会让它大幅恶化的国家（主要是中国和印度）之间的深度分歧。对于本周和下周在秘鲁首都利马举行的气候谈判，虽然新闻报道充满了悲观预测，认为它几乎不会取得任何成果，但有越来越多的迹象表明，僵局可能会被打破。这个新转变在很大程度上归功于中国，因为它决定改弦更张，加入美国的行列，对减少温室气体排放做出承诺。

One critical question now is whether India — the country that has stood by China’s side in climate talks and is now the world’s third-largest emitter — will follow suit in a meaningful way at the Lima negotiations. And there seems to be a surprisingly high chance that India will.

现在的一个关键问题就是，在利马谈判中，印度——过去它在气候谈判中站在中国一边，目前是世界第三大排放国——是否也会真的效仿中国。我们觉得，出人意料的，印度会这么做的可能性很高。

China and India share a common domestic problem — one that has motivated China’s leaders to act, and could motivate India’s. That is, the fossil fuels that cause climate change also produce local air pollution. This has risen to deadly levels, with all of the Chinese and Indian cities that the World Health Organization monitors for air pollution failing the organization’s test for acceptable levels of airborne particulate, widely believed to be the most dangerous air pollutant for human health. More than half of these cities also fail their own countries’ particulates standards.

中国和印度都有一个共同的国内问题，它已经促使中国领导人采取了行动，并且有可能促使印度行动起来。这个问题就是，造成气候变化的化石燃料也污染了本地的空气。这已经严重到了致人死命的程度。接受世界卫生组织(WHO)空气污染监测的所有中印城市，空气中的微粒水平都没有达到WHO的合格标准，逾一半的城市也没有达到本国的颗粒物标准。在危害人类健康的空气污染物中，微粒被广泛认为是最危险的一种。

This pollution shortens lives and, in the process, undermines the economic growth emerging economies urgently need, as I and other researchers concluded in a recent study. Comparing China’s pollution in the north — where it’s worse, because of subsidies for coal heating in the winter — with the south, we found the north experienced reductions in life spans of about five years. That means people living in northern China are losing many billions of years of life expectancy because of heavy pollution. Keep in mind that southern China also has high pollution levels, which very likely reduces life spans there, too.

这种污染缩减了人类寿命，而且还破坏了新兴经济体亟需的经济增长，这是我和其他研究人员最近从一项研究中得出的结论。在中国，北方的污染比南方更严重，因为中国在冬季为北方提供了燃煤供热补贴。我们发现，北方人的寿命平均减少了5年左右。这意味着，由于污染严重，中国北方人口总共减少了数以十亿计的寿命年数。请记住，中国南方的污染程度也很严重，居住在那里的人的寿命很可能也已缩短。

Because of this pollution, Chinese citizens have called for change, speaking out online and holding protests. The government has responded with actions, perhaps most notably the declaration by Li Keqiang, China’s premier, of a "war on pollution.” The leaders have realized that cleaner air decreases rates of sickness, in turn reducing health care costs, increasing time at work and presumably making people more productive while they are there. It also increases life spans, meaning more years citizens can contribute to the economy.

面对这种污染，中国公民呼吁进行变革，他们在网上疾呼，还举行抗议活动。政府则用行动来予以回应，其中是最引人瞩目的也许是中国总理李克强宣布“向污染宣战”。领导人已经意识到，清洁空气可以降低患病率，进而降低医疗成本，增加人们的工作时间，并且可能会提高他们的工作效率。这也延长了人们的寿命，意味着民众可以在更长的年头里为经济做出贡献。

The result is that China’s policies to reduce particulates air pollution for the well-being of its people has been a part of, not counter to, its economic agenda. Moving away from coal and other fossil fuels also reduces the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change, which has allowed China to confront two problems at once.

其结果就是，中国为提升公众福祉而减少颗粒物空气污染的政策，成为了其经济议程的一部分，而不是与之相背离。逐步放弃煤炭等化石燃料，也减少了温室气体排放引起的气候变化，对中国来说，这是一箭双雕的事情。

India could be next. Over the last several weeks, India’s new prime minister, Narendra Modi, has publicly recognized his country’s serious pollution problem, which may actually be worse than in China. First, he announced his intention to make air quality data available to the public. Last week, his administration said it would announce new emissions standards for power plants.

下一个可能就是印度。过去几周里，印度的新总理纳伦德拉·莫迪(Narendra Modi)公开承认该国存在严重的污染问题。印度的问题其实可能比中国的更严重。首先，莫迪宣布要向公众提供空气质量数据。上周，莫迪政府又表示将颁布电厂排放的新标准。

India, like China, has a tremendous opportunity to improve the well-being of its citizens. If the regions of India that violate its own particulates air pollution standard were brought into compliance, the 660 million people currently living in these higher-pollution areas would see their life expectancy increase by an average of 3.2 years, for an overall gain of roughly two billion life years, according to our study. This action can in turn be part of India’s economic strategy, contributing to a healthier, longer-working labor force and reduced medical bills.

印度和中国一样，在提高公民福祉的过程中蕴含着巨大机会。我们的研究显示，目前印度有6.6亿人居住在没有达到本国颗粒物空气污染标准的地区，如果污染严重的地区地区能够变得合规，其居民的平均预期寿命将增加3.2年，累计起来大约为20亿年。此举可能会进而成为印度经济战略的一部分，有助于让劳动人口变得更加健康，可以工作更长时间，并降低医疗费用。

For years, climate negotiations have involved richer and poorer countries telling each other what they must or should do for the common good. I find it unlikely that American negotiators suddenly found the right words to persuade China to announce a new policy. Far more likely, an increasing awareness of the high levels of air pollution and its costs inside China caused the leadership to conclude that moving away from fossil fuels was in its own interest. Whatever the climate benefits for the planet, and they’re potentially large, they are not driving China’s decision.

多年以来，在气候谈判中，富国和穷国常常告诉对方，必须或应该做哪些事情来维护共同利益。我觉得，美国谈判代表不太可能是突然发现了合适的措辞，说服中国宣布一项新政策。更有可能的状况是：对于严重空气污染及其给中国本土带来的代价，人们的意识在不断提高，因此领导人得出结论，逐步放弃化石燃料对本国有益。无论地球可以获得怎样的气候效益，其潜力有多么巨大，它们都不是推动中国的决定的主要因素。

But results matters more than motives. If India follows China — and the countries make good on their pledges — it’s possible that history books will ultimately judge this moment as a turning point when the world first collectively took meaningful actions to confront climate change.

但结果比动机重要。如果印度效仿中国——并且两国都能兑现承诺——史书可能就会把此刻记载为一个转折点，因为世界首次采取了应对气候变化的重大集体行动。