我们该怎么拯救你 迷失的底特律

Detroit is beautiful-though you probably have to be a child of the industrial Midwest, like me, to see it. As you may have heard, the city is in trouble. At the end of the 2013 fiscal year, Detroit had a balance sheet with liabilities of $9.05 billion. The city's emergency manager, Kevyn Orr, estimates long-term debt at $18 billion.

底特律是个美丽的城市，但你得跟我一样，从小在这个中西部工业城市长大，才能发现它的美丽。你可能已经听说了，底特律碰上了麻烦。2013财年末，底特律的资产负债表上的负债有90.5亿美元。该市的应急财务经理奥尔(Kevyn Orr)估计，该市的长期债务将达到180亿美元。

But I know how to fix Detroit, because it reminds me of another favorite place, Hong Kong-two things so opposite that they evoke each other the way any Kardashian is a reminder that you love home and mother.

但我知道底特律该怎么办，因为它让我想起了另一个我非常喜欢的城市――香港。这两个城市迥然相异，但又都会让人在看到其中一座城市的时候在头脑中想到另一座城市，就好比卡戴珊(Kardashian)会让你想起，你爱自己的家，爱自己的母亲。

Hong Kong's per capita GDP is among the highest in the world. But it was once a worse mess than Detroit. Devastated by Japanese occupation, the British colony's population had declined from 1.6 million in 1941 to 600,000 by 1945. Then, after the 1949 communist victory on the mainland, a million refugees arrived. Most of them were penniless. Britain's Labor government was penniless, too. Maybe Hong Kong could have gone into Chapter 9. But who would have been the bankruptcy judge? Chairman Mao?

香港的人均本地生产总值(GDP)在全球属最高之列。但曾几何时，香港的麻烦比底特律还大。因为日占时期受到蹂躏，当时为英国殖民地的香港的人口从1941年的160万降低到1945年的60万。然后，在共产党于1949年在大陆获得胜利之后，100万名难民来到香港。大多数难民身无分文。英国的劳动党政府也一文不名。香港当时可能差不多都要破产了，但谁能来当法官主持这宗破产案呢？毛主席？

Instead Hong Kong had the good fortune to get John (later Sir John) Cowperthwaite, a young official sent out to push the colony's economy toward recovery. 'I did very little,' he once said. 'All I did was to try to prevent some of the things that might undo it.'

香港并没有破产，相反地，它运气很好，它有郭伯伟(John Cowperthwaite)，也就是后来的郭伯伟爵士。当时的郭伯伟是一名年轻的官员，他的任务是推动香港经济进入复苏轨道。他有一次这样说道，我几乎没做什么事，我所做的就是努力防止发生某些可能毁掉香港经济的事。

Such as taxes. Even now, Hong Kong has no sales tax; no VAT; no taxes on capital gains, interest income or earnings outside Hong Kong; no import or export duties; and a top personal income-tax rate of 15%.

比如税收。即便是现在，香港也不征销售税，不征增值税，不征资本利得税，利息收入或者在香港之外地区的盈利也不征税，不征进出口关税，而且个人所得税最高税率为15%。

Cowperthwaite was financial secretary from 1961 to 1971, Hong Kong's period of fastest economic growth. Sir John, however, wouldn't allow collection of economic statistics for fear they'd lead to political meddling. Some statistics nonetheless: During Cowperthwaite's tenure, Hong Kong's exports grew by an average of 13.8% a year, industrial wages doubled and the number of households in extreme poverty shrank from half to 16%.

郭伯伟在1961年到1971年之间任香港的财政司司长，而这段时间是香港经济增长最快的时期。不过，郭伯伟不许采集经济统计数据，因为他害怕这会引来政治的干预。不过，统计数据还是有一些的：在郭伯伟任职期间，香港的出口平均每年增长13.8%，行业工资翻了一番，极端贫困家庭的占比从50%降至16%。

With that in mind, I was talking to a friend in Michigan. We discussed Detroit's poverty, crime, depopulation and insolvency.

我在跟密歇根的一个朋友聊天的时候，脑子里就想着这件事。我们讨论了底特律的贫穷、犯罪、人口减少和无力偿债等情况。

'Make it into Hong Kong,' I said, 'with polite Canadians next door instead of a scary Politburo.'

我说，把底特律变成香港吧，而且隔壁是彬彬有礼的加拿大人，不是让人心生恐惧的政治局。

'Someone's way ahead of you,' he told me.

他对我说，有些人早就想到了。

Real-estate developer Rod Lockwood wants investors to buy Detroit's derelict 982-acre Belle Isle Park and persuade the U.S. to allow Belle Isle a territorial status like Guam and all the tax benefits of Hong Kong-with easier access to Red Wings games.

房地产开发商洛克伍德(Rod Lockwood)希望投资者们买下底特律被遗弃的占地982英亩的百丽岛公园(Belle Isle Park)，并说服美国赋予百丽岛跟关岛(Guam)一样的地位，拥有香港的全部税收优惠，还要能更方便地观看底特律红翼队的比赛。

Belle Isle has room for only about 50,000 people and just one bridge to the city. It might seem more of a gated community than an overseas possession. So Mr. Lockwood has expanded his proposal to include 15 square miles of Detroit's distressed east side. I think Mr. Lockwood should try for the city's entire 143 square miles.

百丽岛上只能供5万人居住，与主城只有一桥之隔。这看起来就像是一个封闭式社区，不像是海外私产。因此，洛克伍德还在自己的企划中加入了底特律萧条的东区15平方英里的地块。在我看来，洛克伍德可以试试把底特律这143平方英里都卖掉。

Could it really work? Mr. Lockwood took me on a city tour with Larry Mongo, owner of Café D'Mongo's Speakeasy, a popular hangout for Detroit's hipsters. (Hipster scenes tend to spring up anywhere cheap real estate abuts young people, and just up Woodward Avenue, at Wayne State, there are 31,000 of them.)

这真的能有用吗？洛克伍德带着我和蒙戈(Larry Mongo)在城里转了一圈。蒙戈是Cafe D'Mongo's Speakeasy的东家，这个咖啡馆是底特律赶时髦的人常去的地方。（赶时髦的人聚集的地方往往是房地产价格特别便宜的地方，年轻人喜欢这样的地方，在Woodward Avenue北部，在韦恩州立大学，这样的地方有3.1万个。）

Detroit's industrial ruins are picturesque, like crumbling Rome in an 18th-century etching. The tragedy is the desert of blue-collar neighborhoods. Almost every home is burned, a crack house, a cellar hole or stripped of all that's salvageable.

底特律的工业废墟别具一格，就像18世纪蚀刻画中残破的罗马。这个悲剧是蓝领社区撤离造成的。几乎每一栋房子都被烧过了，只剩下断壁残垣，几乎没有什么值得抢救的东西了。

Hong Kong economics would mean curtailing U.S. welfare and benefit programs, but Detroiters seem to have found the holes in the social safety net already. Forty-four percent are living below poverty level. They could, however, benefit from the jobs and commerce in a vibrant, tax-free Hong Kong economy.

如果在经济上借用香港的方法，将意味着削减美国的福利和优惠计划，但底特律人似乎已经感受到了社会安全网上的破洞。有44%的底特律居民生活在贫困线以下。不过，如果底特律效仿香港的做法，底特律人或许可以从充满活力的免税经济所带来的工作岗位和商贸活动获益。

Amid the desolation, we came across a tidy bungalow-lawn mowed, sidewalk swept, flower beds planted, and bars on every downstairs door and window. Mr. Mongo said, 'The old folks are still living there.' A lifetime was spent paying the mortgage and making improvements on a place that now isn't worth the $8,500 it costs to demolish a house in Detroit.

在一片荒芜中，我们发现了一座干 整洁的房子――修剪整齐的草坪、打扫干 的便道、种满鲜花的花坛、楼下的每扇门窗都钉上了铁栏杆。蒙戈说：老人们仍生活在这里。有些人一辈子都在偿还抵押贷款，改造房屋，而如今在底特律这样一座房子的 值还不及拆除房子所需的8,500美元。

Christopher Brooks, senior pastor at the 1,500-member Evangelical Ministries Church in Detroit, said a concept like Belle Isle 'would initially be greeted with hostility because of the widespread suffering in Detroit. A 'Wealth Haven' would cause a war on the middle class.' However, he said, 'If you're talking about the whole Belle Isle is the start of a plan, I'd support it. A lot of clergy would get behind it.' Pastor Brooks said, 'If there were a real plan to encourage jobs and wealth, the welfare problem would solve itself.'

底特律福音事工教会(Evangelical Ministries Church)高级牧师布鲁克斯(Christopher Brooks)说，由于底特律人普遍生活困难，像百丽岛这样的概念开始时将受到敌意的对待。该机构有1,500名成员。他说，财富避风港将给中产阶级带来一场战争。不过，他说，如果你说的是整个城市……如果百丽岛只是计划的开端，我会支持它。很多神职人员都会支持。布鲁克斯说，如果有一个真正的促进就业和财富增长的计划，福利问题将自然而然地解决。

Granted, turning Detroit into Hong Kong wouldn't be simple. I talked to Chris Crosby, a municipal bond analyst at Raymond James. He listened patiently as I explained the advantages of a city that would actually be worth something to prospective municipal bondholders. Here is the main part of the rest of our conversation.

诚然，将底特律变成香港并不是件容易的事。笔者曾与Raymond James的市政债券分析师克罗斯比(Chris Crosby)谈过。他耐心地听我解释一个在潜在市政债券持有人看来有些价值的城市所具有的优势。以下为我们剩余对话的主要内容。

Me: 'Is this feasible?

我：这可行吗？

Mr. Crosby: 'No.'

克罗斯比：不可行。

The political barriers are too high-politicians don't like to give up power. Of course, politicians also give up power in a bankruptcy, which is why Mr. Crosby likes Detroit's bankruptcy. It will be so politically painful that other big cities won't try it.

政治壁垒太高了――政客们不愿放弃权力。当然，政客们还是得在破产案中放弃权力，正因为如此，克罗斯比喜欢底特律的破产。这在政治上太痛苦了，所以其他大城市不愿尝试。

Detroit's politics are already painful. Former Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick is serving 28 years in prison. Local joke: 'What's the difference between Chicago and Detroit?'

底特律的政治形势已经很悲惨了。前市长基尔帕特里克(Kwame Kilpatrick)目前正在监狱里服刑，他被判28年有期徒刑。当地有一个笑话是这样说的：芝加哥和底特律之间有什么不同？

'Chicago got Michael Corleone. Detroit got Fredo.'

“芝加哥有迈克尔•科莱奥内(Michael Corleone)。底特律有弗雷多(Fredo)。”（编者按：迈克尔•科莱奥内和弗雷多都是《教父》系列影片中的人物，弟弟迈克尔让人把哥哥弗雷多杀死了。）

Plus introducing Hong Kong's sharp-clawed wolverine species of capitalism into the Wolverine State would require a bold stroke from Washington. It's hard to imagine anything bold from this Congress of head-butting pro-wrestler wannabes.

此外，将香港尖牙利爪的资本主义之狼引入素有“狼獾之州”之称的密歇根州，将需要华盛顿的大胆行动。难以想象这届充斥着不惜打得头破血流的急功近利者的国会会做出任何大胆的举动。

But something needs to be done. Sen. Rand Paul weighed in with a Dec. 6 speech at the Detroit Economic Club. (The economy may be gone, but we Midwesterners are 'joiners,' so there's still a club.) He said he'd introduce legislation creating 'Economic Freedom Zones' with personal and business tax rates of 5%.

但有些事需要去做。参议员保罗(Rand Paul)去年12月6日在底特律经济俱乐部(Detroit Economic Club)发表了演讲，由此加入了这场论战。（经济可能不行了，但我们中西部人“爱参加各种社团活动”，所以俱乐部还是要有的。）他说，他将提出立法建立“经济自由区”，自由区内的个人和企业税率为5%。

Anyway, Detroit is broke. And so was Hong Kong. In 1949 the colony had just one asset. Hong Kong owned Hong Kong-all the land except what was under the Anglican cathedral. Hong Kong sold leaseholds, first for a little, then for a lot.

但不管怎样，底特律是破产了。香港也曾破产过。1949年，当时还是殖民地的香港只有一样资产。香港拥有香港――除 约翰座堂下的土地以外的全部土地。香港出售了租赁权，先是一点点，接着是大量出售。

And Detroit owns Detroit, or a very large chunk of it. In 2011 more than half the owners of Detroit's 305,000 properties failed to pay property taxes. Detroit has approximately 40 square miles of vacant land.

底特律也拥有底特律，更确切的说是底特律的很大一部分。2011年，底特律30.5万套房产的房主中有一半以上没有缴纳房产税。底特律有约40平方英里（约合4,100平方公里）的闲置土地。

If people cannot be convinced by reason, maybe they can be convinced by greed. Forty square miles equals 1.1 billion square feet. One recent estimate put Hong Kong land prices at more than $1,300 per square foot. Translated into Detroit, that's $1.4 trillion.

如果讲道理无法说服人们，那么也许可以用贪婪来说服他们。40平方英里相当于11亿平方英尺。最近的一项估计数据显示，香港地价超过每平方英尺1,300美元。按这样的单价计算，底特律的土地价值达1.4万亿美元。

So my investment advice: go short on Manhattan penthouses and long on empty lots in Detroit.

所以笔者的投资建议是：做空曼哈顿顶层公寓，做多底特律的空置地块。