中国未必出现出口量大幅下滑的情况

Over the weekend, new data showed a severe drop in Chinese exports.

整个周末的最新数据显示，中国出口大幅下降。

China reported May exports were up 1%, compared to up nearly 15% in April, and 24% in the first two months of the year.

中国发布数据说，5月份出口增长了1%，相比之下，4月份出口增长了接近15%，今年头两个月的出口增幅为24%。

That’s a dramatic plunge. But the data actually say more about the black box out of which all Chinese numbers emerge rather than the Chinese economy, albeit it says something about the latter as well.

这表明增速已经大幅下降。但是相关数据反映出来的，与其说是中国经济，不如说是中国产生数据的暗箱，虽然它也能反映出中国经济的一些信息。

Back in March, we cited one research firm, SouthBay Research, that had noticed the export data coming out of China was way off from the export data coming out of other Asian nations. “One wonders if the surge smacks of desperation, a mad scramble to find profits where normal ways have failed, ” they wrote at the time.

今年3月，我们报道了研究公司SouthBay Research的一些看法。这家机构注意到，中国的出口数据与其他亚洲国家的出口数据差距很大。他们当时写道，人们自然会怀疑，中国出口的大幅跃升可能带有一丝绝望色彩，是一些人在正常道路走不通的情况下为获取利润而采取的疯狂之举导致的。

It took some time, but we are finally getting “clean” numbers, or at least, numbers that are probably closer to reality than the previous data, said Patrick Chovanec, chief strategist at Silvercrest Asset Management.

Silvercrest Asset Management的首席策略师程志宇(Patrick Chovanec)说，虽然花了一些时间，但我们终于得到了“净”数字，或者至少可能比之前的数据更接近真实情况的数字。

Indeed, the rather placid market reaction to the data shows that most people are well aware of the games that get played in China with the economic numbers.

实际上，市场对数据相当平静的反应显示出，大多数人都非常清楚中国在经济数据上玩的把戏。

The earlier export numbers were being gamed by companies looking skirt restrictions on capital inflows (the proverbial “hot money”). The crackdown on the bad data was at least partially an attempt to slow down this flow of capital, said Chovanec, who was previously a professor at Tsinghua University’s school of economics in Beijing. Amid consistent fears of investing bubbles over the years, this is no small thing.

早些时候，出口数据被一些寻求逃避资本流入（俗称热钱）限制的公司所篡改。程志宇说，对不良数据的打击至少在一定程度上是为了使这种资本流入放缓。鉴于多年来对投资泡沫的持续担忧，这并不是小事。程志宇曾经是清华大学经济管理学院的教授。

The new numbers were an eye-opener, to the observant eye. Exports were expected to rise 7.3%; they rose only 1%. Imports were expected to rise 6%; they actually fell 0.3%. The new numbers “could be” honest numbers, said Robert Hardy, who writes the GeoStrat newsletter. “If so, they could send a chill through the markets.”

对于有心人来说，新的数据发人深省。预期的出口增幅为7.3%，结果仅增长1%。预计的进口增幅为6%，实际上却下降了0.3%。Geostrat的哈迪(Robert Hardy)说，新的数字有可能是真实数据，如果这样的话，它们可能会让整个市场感到寒意。

“I continue to be deeply concerned about China, ” said Kiron Sarkar, a former Rothschild banker who runs the research shop Sarkar Global Macro. “However, the authorities do not seem to be ready to stimulate the economy, which I believe is declining far faster than most analysts think. Current forecasts that GDP will grow by +7.5% this year are fanciful in my humble opinion.”

前Rothschild Inc.银行家、目前运营着业务通讯Sarkar Global Macro的萨卡尔(Kiron Sarkar)说，我仍然对中国深感忧虑。不过，有关部门似乎不准备刺激经济，我认为目前中国经济下滑的速度比许多分析师认为的要快的多。以我的愚见，目前对今年GDP增速将达到7.5%的预测简直是异想天开。

The economy is very likely growing slower than the government is letting on, Chovanec said. He estimates that GDP in 2012 was closer to 5.5% than the official rate of 7.8%. But China’s GDP is a “black box, they control it.”

程志宇说，中国的经济增速很可能低于政府发布的数据。他认为2012年的GDP增速更接近5.5%，而不是官方发布的7.8%。但是中国的GDP是个暗箱，控制权在他们手中。

The government’s gotten itself in a bad cycle of issuing debt to fuel growth. A lot of the credit is going into bad, unproductive investments (think the infamous ghost cities). Rather than take the loss, the government issues more debt to cover the payments on the older debt. Every year the returns get smaller and smaller.

政府已经陷入了靠发行债券来刺激增长的恶性循环。许多贷款都被用于不良的、无成效的投资（想想臭名昭著的鬼城吧）。政府非但没有承担损失，还发行了更多债券来偿还更早的债务。这些债券的回报每年都在缩水。

It sounds scary, but it may or may not lead to a “Minsky moment” event, Chovanec said. It could just as well be a Japanese style slow burn. Indeed, Chovanec said China’s economy has plenty of potential growth, but without some kind of correction or adjustment, the cycle just keeps feeding itself and investors keep buying the bad debt in expectations that the government will keep covering it. If you’re thinking right now, that sounds familiar, well, it is.

程志宇说，这听起来很可怕，但它是否会引发“明斯基时刻”(Minsky moment)式的事件还不好说。它也可能只是日本式的慢烧过程。实际上，程志宇说，中国经济有足够的增长潜力，但是如果缺少某种修正或调整，这个恶性循环将会持续下去，投资者将继续购买不良的债券并期待着政府将会买单。如果你现在觉得这听起来耳熟，的确如此。

Either way, the new export numbers show the Chinese economy is not at all what it’s cracked up to be.

无论怎样，新的出口数据能够说明的是，中国经济根本不像它自己所说的那样好。