别了,欧洲 Goodbye Europe

A British exit from the European Union looks increasingly possible. It would be a reckless gamble

英国退出欧盟的可能性看上去越来越大。这可能是一场不计后果的赌博。

“Britain does not dream of some cosy, isolated existence on the fringes of the European Community,” asserted Margaret Thatcher in 1988. Now, increasingly, it does. Opinion polls show that most Britons are in favour of leaving the European Union. Baroness Thatcher's Conservative Party, which took Britain into Europe four decades ago, is divided between those who long for an arm's-length relationship and those who want to walk out. The second camp is swelling.

玛格丽特·撒切尔在1988年宣称：“英国并不梦想着成为欧共体边缘多少有点惬意和孤立的国家。”如今，英国每天都在做着这样的梦。民调显示，大多数英国人赞成脱离欧洲联盟。40年前，撒切尔女男爵的保守党将英国带进欧盟，如今它已分裂成两派。一派希望同欧盟保持正常的关系，另一派希望走出欧洲大陆，此派的阵营正在壮大。

Even the fiercest British critics of the EU are astonished by the speed at which things are moving. Parliamentary rebellions over Europe are becoming easier and easier to organise. Euroscepticism is hardening in the Conservative Party, in much the same way as social conservatism has gone from being a powerful current in America's Republican Party to an intolerant orthodoxy. The United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), which wants to leave the EU, has abruptly moved from the political margins to the mainstream. A referendum on Britain's membership of the EU now seems a matter of timing.

就连对欧盟持最不满意态度的英国舆论也对事态的发展速度感到惊讶。组织针对欧洲大陆的议会起义变得越来越容易。就像社会保守主义从美国共和党内的主流变成狭隘的正统观念一样，保守党内的欧洲怀疑主义也在强硬起来。支持脱欧的英国独立党(UKIP)在一夜之间从政治的边缘变成主流。如今，对英国的欧盟成员资格进行全民公投似乎成为迫在眉睫的事情。

Continental Europeans are surprised too—and annoyed. They are bewildered that the British should be talking of leaving a club that many believe has shifted decisively in a free-trading, Anglo-Saxon direction in the past two decades. They also resent the way Britain seems to be using the threat of an exit as a bargaining tool, especially at a time when the euro is in crisis. As they see it, Britain wants to carve out a privileged place for itself in the European club, where it can enjoy free trade without any of the other membership rules. In Berlin and Rome, political leaders argue that Britain needs to make up its mind once and for all: does it want to be in or out?

欧洲大陆也感到吃惊——和恼怒。让他们困惑的是，在许多人看来欧盟在过去20年间毅然决然地转向自由贸易和盎格鲁-撒克逊模式，而英国竟然在探讨离开这个俱乐部的话题。英国人似乎正在把脱欧的威胁当做是谈判的砝码来，特别是在欧元处于危机之时。在他们看来，英国想要为自己在欧洲俱乐部内攫取一个特权地位，她可以在不受其他成员国约束的情况下享受自由贸易。柏林和罗马的领导人认为，英国需要做出一劳永逸的决定：到底是想留还是想走？

Oops!

天哪！

For an economically liberal newspaper that has been sceptical of much that Brussels does, a British exit would be a double tragedy. Britons would suffer far more than they currently realise, as we explain in detail in our briefing this week (see article). Europe would be damaged too. Britain has stood for free trade and low regulation, so without it the union would be more lethargic and left ever further behind by America and the emerging world.

对于一家对布鲁塞尔的大多数行为持怀疑态度的经济自由派报纸来说，英国的退出可能是一个双重悲剧。如同本周精粹栏目所详细描述的那样，英国人可能要承受的考验将比他们现在意识到的要多得多。欧洲也会遭遇打击。英国一直是自由贸易和放松监管的表率，失去她的欧盟会更加了无生气，并且会被美国和新兴国家落的更远。

The speediest way for Britain to tumble out would be an “In or Out” referendum called by a prime minister frightened by rising anti-Europe feeling in Parliament and the country as a whole. David Cameron, Britain's prime minister, has tried to resist this, hinting instead that Britons would be given a choice between the status quo and a more detached relationship. But few are satisfied with that. Conservative MPs look over their right shoulders at UKIP and clamour for a sharper choice.

英国仓促做出决定的最快方式是由首相下令进行一次“留还是走”的全民公决，而首相已经被议会和国内反欧情绪的高涨搞得六神无主。英国首相戴维•卡梅伦一直在努力抵制公民公决。他暗示说，英国人反而应当在现状和更超然的关系之间进行选择。但是几乎无人对此感到满意。保守党议员向独立党看齐，并且为更明确的选择而四处呼吁。

Another route out involves a diplomatic slip. The cleverer Eurosceptics, including Mr Cameron, do not want Britain to leave; they just want to bring back some powers from Brussels. But their efforts to do so are making things worse. Last year almost all other EU members lined up against Mr Cameron, who was trying to block a fiscal compact to help resolve the euro crisis. The British now hope that tightening euro-zone integration provides a chance for Mr Cameron to negotiate looser ties. They could be wrong. Other countries are tiring of British demands. Many, including Germany, would prefer to avoid a British exit, but they are not so desperate to keep Mr Cameron in that they are prepared to concede much in the way of social and labour-market regulation. And some, such as France, might positively welcome the departure of the club's most awkward member. Bad-tempered negotiations would increase the likelihood of an “out” vote in a British referendum.

另一条出走的道路牵扯到外交方面的一些麻烦。包括卡梅伦在内的较明智的欧洲怀疑派不准备让英国脱离欧盟；他们只是想从布鲁塞尔讨回一些权力。但是，他们为此所做的努力正在使事情变得更糟糕。去年，除英国之外的几乎所有欧盟成员国都联合起来反对卡梅伦，这位英国首相当时试图阻止一项有助于解决欧元危机的财政契约获得通过。如今，英国希望对欧元区一体化的强化能为卡梅伦提供一个通过谈判解除合作的机会。他们可能打错了算盘。其他国家对英国的要求感到厌倦。包括德国在内的多个国家倾向于防止英国脱欧，但是他们还没有绝望到让卡梅伦坚持其对社会和劳动力市场的监管方式，尽管他们准备做出很大让步。同时，包括法国在内的一些国家可能对俱乐部中最尴尬成员的离去表示明确地欢迎。恶劣心情下的谈判可能会增加英国全民公决中投“离开”票的可能性。

Little sovereignty, large cost

用不菲的代价换取少量的主权

And what if Britain left? It could grab a few benefits quickly. The nation would save about £8 billion ($13 billion) a year in net budget contributions. Freed of the common agricultural policy, its food could become cheaper. If it pulled out of the single market, it could do away with annoying labour directives. The City would not have to worry so much about a financial-transaction tax and creeping European finance rules.

那么，英国脱欧影响几何呢？眼前的好处有以下几个：国家每年能节省8亿英镑（13亿美元）的净预算分摊额。摆脱欧洲共同农业政策后，英国的食品会更加便宜。如果脱离单一市场的话，英国能摆脱恼人的劳工指令。伦敦金融城不必为繁重的金融交易税而担忧，同时还可以无视欧洲的金融法规。

Yet these gains would be greatly outweighed by the costs of a British exit, which would dent trade with a market that accounts for half of Britain's exports. The carmakers that use Britain as their European operations base would gradually drift away, along with large parts of the financial-services industry. Britain would have to renegotiate dozens of bilateral trade deals from a much weaker position than it enjoyed as a member of the EU. It would cut a greatly diminished figure on the world stage. It would have bought some sovereignty, but at an extraordinary cost to Britain—and its partners.

不过，同英国脱欧的代价相比，这些好处简直是九牛一毛。受英国脱欧所影响的交易占英国出口量的一半。把英国当做其欧洲业务基地的汽车厂商，连同大部分金融服务产业在内会逐步撤离。同保持欧盟成员国相比，英国不得不站在一个较弱的地位重新进行一连串的双边贸易谈判。这会极大地消弱英国在世界舞台上的形象。这将使英国——及其伙伴以极高的代价换取一部分国家主权。

Among those who want out, there is talk of finding an accommodation by which Britain would leave the EU but still trade freely with it (the equivalent of eating in a restaurant but not paying the cover charge). Some Eurosceptics suggest Britain could join Norway in the European Economic Area. That would leave it bound by EU regulations that it would be almost powerless to shape—a situation many Britons, especially Eurosceptics, would find intolerable. Others hope Britain might get the same deal as Switzerland, which is a little further removed but gets good access to the single market. It wouldn't: the EU already regrets giving Switzerland the Swiss option, so it is scarcely likely to give bigger, more troublesome Britain the same deal. Again, disappointment and a referendum beckon.

想要脱欧的人们正在探讨一种可以让英国在脱欧的同时仍然可以自由地同其进行贸易的通融办法（这相当于在饭店中吃饭却不交服务费）。一些欧洲怀疑派人士提议，英国可以像挪威一样加入欧洲经济区，这将使英国处于几乎无力形成的欧盟监管的控制之下——这是一种多数英国人，尤其是欧洲怀疑人士所无法容忍的情况。有人希望英国能够达成类似于瑞士的那种协议，虽然要为此做出更多的让步，但能够顺利地进入单一市场。不过，这是不可能实现的：欧盟早已为同意建立瑞士期权交易所而后悔不已，因此几乎不可能同面积更大并且会带来更多麻烦的英国达成类似协议。

Can anything be done to prevent this slow-motion disaster? Quite possibly, it can. Oddly, Mr Cameron should try emulating Baroness Thatcher. She is remembered today as a handbag-swinger who commanded Brussels to retreat, but she also knew how to make common cause with other European leaders. Unfortunately, the quality of British EU diplomacy has deteriorated in recent years. Obsessed with repatriating powers and with appearing tough to their domestic audience, Britain's current leaders seem to have forgotten the art of dealmaking. Mr Cameron has a good case to make, especially when he argues for extending the single market to promote growth. He also has powerful sympathisers in Europe, including Germany's Angela Merkel, but they seldom become useful allies because Britain is seen as a blackmailing zealot.

有什么办法可以阻止这种慢镜头式的灾难吗？当然有。首先，卡梅伦应当效仿撒切尔女男爵。虽说她留在当今人们记忆中的形象是一位挥舞着手提包命令布鲁塞尔撤退的人，但是她还了解同其他欧洲领导人进行合作的方式。不幸的是，英国对欧盟外交的质量近些年来一直在下滑。由于忙于收回权力并且对国内民众显得更加强硬，当前的英国领导人似乎已经忘记了做交易的技巧。卡梅伦具有做交易的有力条件，特别是当他赞成扩大单一市场以提高增长的时候。虽说他在欧洲还拥有不少有影响力的同情者，其中就包括德国总理默克尔；但是，由于英国被视为一个讨价还价的狂热分子，他们基本不可能成为可以利用的盟友。

The other priority should be educating Britons about what exactly a British exit would really involve. Big business and the City, whose interests lie solidly inside the EU, need to take a stand. The Labour Party, which has been playing a cynical and dangerous game, also needs to change its line. In October Labour MPs voted with anti-European Tories over the EU budget, handing the government its first major defeat. By strengthening those who want to leave Europe, Labour is making it more likely that a Conservative government will have to promise an in-or-out referendum. If it does, Labour may be bounced into promising the same.

另一个首先要考虑的事情应该是，让英国人真正对脱欧所涉及的详细内容有清楚的了解。其利益与留在欧盟密切相关的金融产业和金融城必须做出表态。一直在玩弄愤世嫉俗和危险把戏的工党也必须改变立场。今年10月，工党议员联合保守党中的反欧洲议员，投票反对欧盟预算案，让政府第一次遭到严重打击。通过强化同脱欧议员的联系，工党令保守党政府不得不保证进行一次“留还是走”的全民公决变得更加可能。如果真是这样的话，工党可能会被迫做出同样的保证。

Most of the heavy lifting, at home as well as in Brussels, will have to be done by Mr Cameron and his chancellor, George Osborne. They need to remind Britons of the victories that have been won within the EU and of the dangers of falling out of it. And above all, they need to rediscover the virtues of muddling along and keeping options open. The referendum is a good example. Rushing to hold a simple in-or-out vote sounds clear and decisive. But stalling for time is wiser. The government should resist demands for a vote at least until it becomes clear what sort of Europe Britain would be voting to remain in or leave. This sort of wait-and-see approach may feel unsatisfactory, but it is what kept Britain out of the euro.

不管是在国内还是在布鲁塞尔，许多困难都在等着卡梅伦和财政大臣乔治·奥斯本去解决。他们有必要提醒英国人，即要记住已在欧盟取得的胜利，也不要忘记脱离欧盟的危险。同时，更重要的是，他们有必要重新发掘出得过且过和灵活选择的长处。全民公决就是一个绝好的例子。单就“留还是走”进行一次仓促的投票听起来意义非凡，但是暂时搁置才是更明智的做法。政府至少应当对投票的要求进行抵制，直到英国对为什么样的欧洲进行留还是走的投票变得清楚为止。此类观望手段或许无法令人满意，但它正是让英国远离欧元的办法。

Britain's position in Europe may become untenable, if the resolution of the economic crisis binds the countries of the euro zone ever closer and all other EU countries join. But that is not a certainty, and nor is Britain's steady marginalisation. Difficult and often humiliating as it may be, the best course is to stick close to Europe, and try to bend it towards Britain.

如果对经济危机的解决将欧元区国家更加紧密地团结起来，并且让其他欧盟国家也加入进来，那么英国在欧洲的立场可能会站不住脚。但是，这既不是板上钉钉的事情，也不能说英国肯定会被边缘化。这也许是困难的，也许还经常令人难堪，但最佳的选择就是紧紧地同欧洲联结在一起，并且努力使这种联结有利于英国。