分析:中国就业市场出现压力征兆

China's job market has started to show signs of stress, putting pressure on the government to intensify fiscal spending to prevent the economy from weakening further.

中国就业市场开始显现承压迹象，这给中国政府带来压力，要求其加大财政支出力度，以防经济进一步走弱。

Like politicians the world over, Chinese leaders' biggest single economic worry is whether unemployment is under control, and analysts say the job outlook will help determine whether they launch a big stimulus effort as they did nearly four years ago.

与全世界的政界人士一样，中国领导人最担心的经济问题是：失业是否在控制之下。分析师们表示，就业市场前景将是决定中国领导人会不会发起大规模刺激努力的因素之一。中国在将近4年前出台过类似的大规模刺激。

So far, the labour market has held up much better than in late 2008 when 20m migrant workers lost their jobs.

与2008年末的情况（当时有2000万农民工失去工作）相比，中国就业市场迄今的形势仍要好出不少。

But cracks are appearing and that experience showed how the situation can change virtually overnight in China.

但裂缝正在显现，而以往经验显示，中国的形势几乎可能在一夜间发生改变。

"Depending on how deep the growth slowdown is, unemployment can deteriorate very suddenly," said Ding Shuang, an economist with Citi.

"关键问题是增长放缓的幅度有多大，这将决定失业状况是否会突然恶化，"花旗(Citi)经济学家丁爽表示。

China, which publishes the bulk of its second-quarter economic data tomorrow, is expected to have grown about 7.5 per cent, its slowest pace in three years.

中国将在明日发布第二季度的大部分经济数据，预期该季度经济增速为7.5%，是三年来最慢的。

To arrest this slowdown, Wen Jiabao, premier, has vowed in recent days that the government will spearhead more investment projects and the central bank has cut interest rates twice in the past month.

为遏制经济增长放缓势头，中国总理温家宝近日誓言，政府将上马更多投资项目，而中国央行已在过去一个月里两次降息。

But getting a read on China's labour market is no easy task. Amid the blizzard of data released this week, there will be no reliable number equivalent to the unemployment rates published in Europe and the US.

但是，掌握中国就业市场的形势并非易事。在本周发布的大量数据中，并没有类似于欧美发布的失业率那样的可靠数据。

This is because China's official jobless figure does not count the 200m migrant labourers who staff the factories and construction sites, and are the most vulnerable during a downturn.

这是因为，中国的官方失业数据并不计入在工厂和建筑工地劳动的2亿农民工，这些人在经济低迷时期最容易受到冲击。

However, partial indicators and anecdotal evidence suggest job cuts are spreading and that it is getting tougher for workers to find jobs.

不过，部分指标和坊间证据表明，裁员正在扩散，劳动者找到就业岗位的难度正在加大。

First, China's purchasing managers' index, an important gauge of the manufacturing sector, pointed to a mild contraction in the number of jobs on offer last month.

首先，中国制造业的重要指标——采购经理指数(PMI)显示，上月招工数量出现小幅收缩。

Second, a central bank survey showed that sentiment about employment prospects fell sharply in the second quarter, nearing its lowest since 2009.

其次，一项央行调查显示，人们对于就业前景的信心在第二季度大幅下降，逼近2009年以来的最低点。

Finally, the human resources ministry estimated that the ratio of job openings to job seekers fell from 108 to 105 over the past three months. The implication is that there are still more jobs than would-be workers – a testament to China's remarkably tight labour market, a big frustration of companies in recent years – but that the tide may be turning.

最后，据中国人力资源和社会保障部估计，过去3个月招聘岗位与求职者人数的比率已从108:100降至105:100。这意味着就业岗位仍多于求职者（证明中国劳动力市场相当吃紧，近年来这让企业颇为头疼），但势头可能正在逆转。

Anecdotally, there have also been reports of mounting trouble, especially among the companies most exposed to the rapidly cooling property market.

坊间也有报道称这方面的麻烦越来越大，尤其是那些直接面向正在快速降温的房地产市场的企业。

Several of the country's largest heavy industrial companies have fired workers or implemented hiring freezes over the past several months, though they have been cautious over how they discuss the news.

中国多家大型重工企业已在过去几个月里裁员或冻结招聘，尽管它们在谈到这方面的消息时表现得很谨慎。

Sany Heavy, China's biggest maker of construction equipment, insisted last week that it was not making any large-scale job cuts, though it was controlling the growth of its 51,000-strong workforce owing to the "slowing pace of development in the industry" in China.

中国最大的工程机械制造商三一重工(Sany Heavy)上周坚称，它并没有进行任何大规模裁员，而只是在控制其5.1万人的员工队伍的扩充步伐，原因是该行业发展速度放慢。

But an employee told the Financial Times that job cuts had been occurring in its manufacturing, sales and research divisions since last year.

但一名三一员工对英国《金融时报》表示，从去年起，三一在制造、销售和研发部门都进行了裁员。

China's coal industry – the largest in the world and the backbone of the power sector – could also be heading for job cuts, according to traders.

交易商们表示，中国煤炭行业（全球规模最大，而且是中国电力工业的主要后盾）也可能迎来裁员。

"Some coal mines have started taking turns taking ‘holidays'," said a gloomy coal trader in Dalian. "If the situation continues, the coal industry will see job cuts."

"一些煤矿已开始轮流‘休假'，"大连一名悲观的煤炭交易商表示。"如果这种形势持续下去，煤炭行业将出现裁员。"

At Sinovel, the third-largest wind turbine maker in the world, employees who leave are not being replaced, and hundreds of new hires had their contracts cancelled in May before they had even started work, according to an employee who was not authorised to speak to the media. The company declined to comment.

在全球第三大风力发电机制造商华锐风电(Sinovel)，据一名没有权限与媒体交谈的员工透露，公司没有安排新人接替离职的雇员，5月份，数百名新招聘的员工在尚未开始工作之前就被取消了劳动合同。华锐风电拒绝置评。

Workers at thousands of smaller companies in the construction sector are also feeling the pinch.

在建筑业的成千上万的中小企业，工人们也正感受到压力。

On a recent sunny afternoon, a dozen men rested on cloth sacks packed with their belongings under a tree near Liuliqiao, a junction for migrants from the countryside who come to Beijing for work. But they were leaving the city, going back to their small patches of farmland.

在最近一个烈日高照的下午，十几位男子坐在六里桥附近的一棵树下，靠在装着自己衣物的布袋上。这里是到北京来找工作的农民工的集散地。但这些人正要离开北京，返回家乡照看自己的小块农地。

One of them, a Mr Yang, said the group had been working on a 17-storey apartment building in Xianghe County, just outside Beijing, but construction had stopped and their wages were only half paid.

一名姓杨的男子表示，他们此前在北京边上的香河县一栋17层公寓楼的工地上工作，但这栋楼已经停建，他们只拿到一半工资。

"It's really not easy finding work this year, so I'm going to go home to look after the wheat and cotton," he said, sighing.

"今年找工作真的很不容易，所以我打算回家照看小麦和棉花，"他叹口气说道。