印巴贸易正常化 推动南亚经济整合

Efforts by South Asian rivals India and Pakistan to normalize trade ties have received further momentum, with Pakistan agreeing to open most commerce with India. The thaw in India-Pakistan trade ties is expected to bolster economic integration of the South Asian region.

南亚宿仇印度和巴基斯坦推动贸易正常化的努力取得了进展，巴基斯坦同意最大限度地对印度开放商业往来。印巴贸易关系解冻预期会帮助南亚地区的经济整合。

At a meeting in New Delhi this week, Pakistan pledged to open its market to 7,000 goods from India over the next three months - up from the fewer than 2,000 items allowed at present. Top commerce officials from both countries also decided to open more trading posts and ease visa rules that restrict travel.

巴基斯坦这星期在新德里的一场会议上承诺，将在未来3个月开放市场给7千项印度产品。目前巴基斯坦只允许不到2千项印度产品进口。两国的首席商业官员还决定设立更多的贸易站，并放松管制旅行的签证规则。

The steps follow Pakistan’s decision last month to grant “most favored nation” status to India. That means the two countries are on track to trade on equal terms by removing tariffs that restricted commerce for decades.

在两国采取这些步骤之前，巴基斯坦才在上个月决定给予印度“最惠国贸易待遇”。两国解除了限制几十年来商业活动的关税，这代表两国正朝向平等贸易发展。

Trade analyst Nita Taneja at the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations warns that favorable trade accords alone are insufficient to boost commerce. She says infrastructure improvements are needed to overcome the two countries’ limited transportation links.

印度国际经济关系研究院的贸易分析人士塔尼加警告，光有最惠国贸易协定对扩大商业是不够的。她说，必须改善基础建设来克服两国有限的交通连接。

“Look at rail movement. You don’t get wagons to transport goods across the border. There could be a wait of 45 days," Taneja said. "For instance, a lot of iron ore is getting exported from India from the eastern side and that is all going via Colombo, and then to Karachi and then coming back to Lahore.”

塔尼加说：“看看铁路。你没有货车将货物运过边界。这可能得等上45天。例如，印度出口很多东部出产的铁矿到巴基斯坦，所有都得先经过科伦坡，然后到卡拉奇，然后再到拉合尔。”

Some steps are being taken. A new freight handling facility will be opened in the coming months at Wagah - the main land crossing between the two countries.

两国在这方面已采取了一些步骤。下个月将在瓦格赫启用一个新的货运转运站，瓦格赫位于两国陆路交通要道上。

The business potential between India and Pakistan is underscored by the flourishing illegal trade that goes via the Middle East and is estimated at $3 billion - higher than the official bilateral trade of about $2.5 billion.

印度和巴基斯坦的商业潜力无穷， 经由中东进行的双边非法贸易估计高达达30亿美元，比两国官方25亿双边贸易值还要高。Economists say the benefits of normalizing trade ties between the two rivals will also help boost trade in all of South Asia - one of the world’s least economically integrated regions. Regional trade is $5 billion or just five percent of South Asia's total trade.

经济学家说，两个敌国贸易关系正常化的好处也将有助于刺激南亚地区内所有的贸易活动。南亚是世界上经济整合程度最低的地区之一。印巴区域贸易值为50亿美元，只占南亚全部贸易的5%。

The head of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, Rajiv Kumar, says the potential to increase regional trade is huge.

印度联合商工会主席库马尔说，区域贸易增加的潜力十分庞大。

“One of the major impediments in the greater trade relations within the region was [the] India-Pakistan standoff," Kumar said. "Now that is beginning to get resolved, I think you will see a burst of trading activity and commercial activity all across the region.”

库马尔说：“在这个区域发展更紧密的贸易关系最大的障碍之一就是印巴对立。既然现在的障碍开始消除了，相信你将会看到整个地区的贸易和商业活动的迅猛增加。”

At a regional conference last week, India made another push to engage in commerce with its neighbors. Kumar says this is important because India accounts for a large part of the region’s economy.

上星期在一个地区性会议，印度再度推动和它的邻国巴基斯坦加强商业往来。库马尔说，这很重要因为印度在地区经济占有很重的份量。

“India has also taken an amazing step by announcing that all imports from less developed neighbors - Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh - will have zero tariff duty treatment," Kumar said. "That measure also will allow greater access to the Indian market…. India is the 1,000 pound gorilla in the room.”

库马尔说：“印度还踏出了很棒的一步，它宣布所有来自尼泊尔、不丹和孟加拉这些较不发达邻国的进口，都将享有零关税待遇。这项举措也允许他们获取印度市场更大的份额。印度现在已经大到让人无法忽视。”

The World Bank estimates that trade within South Asia could rise to $20 billion if restrictions are removed. Indian leaders say boosting trade ties will also make the region more politically stable.

世界银行估计，如果各项限制获得解除，南亚的贸易活动可能增加到200亿。印度领导人说，加强贸易关系也将使区域政治更加稳定。