基石投资导致香港僵尸股激增

Asenior equities banker received a call last week from a client whose company he helped float in Hong Kong last year.

一位资深股票银行家上周接到一位客户的电话，去年他曾帮助这位客户的公司在香港上市。

How, asked the client, can we increase trading volume and interest in the company? The banker’s answer was simple although his solution was anything but: intensive pitching to potential investors all over again.

这位客户在电话中问道，我们怎样才能增加公司股票的交易量，提升市场交易该股票的兴趣？银行家的回答很简单，虽然他的解决办法无非一条：重头向潜在投资者进行密集推介。

The company is in danger of becoming what Hong Kong bankers are dubbing a zombie, or Z-shares — that is, newish companies that trade little, relative to their size, because their so-called free float is held mostly by cornerstone investors.

该公司正面临成为香港银行家所称僵尸股的危险。僵尸股指的是成交量极少（相较公司规模）的一些上市不久的股票，成交量少的原因是，他们所谓自由流通的股票基本上由基石投资者持有。

Locked up for six months, these big shareholders at first cannot, and later do not, trade the shares.

半年的禁售期，令这些大股东一开始不能交易所持股票，解禁后也不交易这些股票。

The result is a collection of newish but illiquid stocks which do little to pique investor interest — and do even less for Hong Kong’s efforts to rank alongside London and New York, even though the territory is on course to host the most initial public offerings for a second year running.

结果是出现了一批非常新但流动性很差的股票，不仅无法吸引投资者的兴趣，更是无益于香港争取与伦敦、纽约市场齐名的努力——虽然香港将连续第二年成为全球第一大首次公开发行(IPO)市场。

Hong Kong’s financial community has grumbled about cornerstones for years.

香港金融界对基石投资者已抱怨多年。

Indeed, a government advisory group called for action two years ago — to no avail.

事实上，两年前一个政府顾问小组呼吁采取行动，却无济于事。

But the issues surrounding their use are growing rapidly.

但围绕基石投资者的问题正迅速增长。

Cornerstones have this year taken up almost half the equity on offer — a record.

今年近半数新发行的股票都由基石投资者认购，创下纪录。

Their share will jump above 50 per cent following next week’s $8bn IPO of Postal Savings Bank of China.

这些投资者所占份额在中国邮政储蓄银行(Postal Savings Bank of China)下周进行80亿美元的IPO后，将跃升至50%以上。

Up to three-quarters of PSBC’s shares are expected to be taken by cornerstones, who accept the half-year lock-ups and the publication of their names, in return for the full allocation they want.

预计中国邮政储蓄银行所发行股份有高达四分之三都将由基石投资者认购，他们接受半年禁售期，同意公开自己的名字，回报是可以得到他们想要的全部配额。

Mainland Chinese companies now provide 71 per cent of cornerstone money, up from 55 per cent two years ago, according to analysis of Dealogic data.

对Dealogic数据的分析显示，中国内地企业现在提供了71%的基石资金，两年前这个比例为55%。

A lot of those investors are participating in so-called friends and family deals, in which state-owned enterprises back a fellow state-owned enterprise’s float.

这类投资者中许多人都参与了所谓的亲友团交易，即一家国企上市，其他国企纷纷支持。

PSBC’s biggest cornerstone, taking about $2bn, is China State Shipbuilding.

中国邮政储蓄最大的基石投资者是中国船舶工业(China State Shipbuilding)，认购了约20亿美元的股份。

Bankers warn that the heavy use of cornerstones can inflate share prices because they commit to buying at the top of the range if needed, giving other investors less sway over pricing.

银行家们警告大量使用基石投资会抬高股价，因为这些投资者承诺必要时会在价值区间上限买入，令其他投资者更难争取有利的价格。

Chinese company cornerstones have money but nothing else, says one banker.

一位银行家表示：中国企业基石投资者除了有钱以外别的什么都没有。

They don’t have the sophistication to research, to come up with a price — they don’t care about that.

他们不会精明地去研究、拿出一个价格，他们不关心这个。

Hong Kong’s financial services advisory committee warned in 2014 that the practice — then running at less than 30 per cent of total equity raised — risked having a distortive effect on market pricing.

香港金融服务咨询委员会在2014年曾警告这种做法有可能对市场定价产生扭曲作用，当时基石投资在IPO筹资总额中占比还不足30%。

But the Hong Kong Exchange, the city’s for-profit equity trading monopoly, last year said its Listing Committee had found no conclusive evidence of this.

但香港交易所(HKEx)——营利性股票交易垄断者——去年表示其上市委员会(Listing Committee)没有（发现）确凿的证据显示存在这种情况。

The exchange says it continues to monitor developments.

港交所表示将继续监测事态发展。

Bankers, however, say executives rely on cornerstones to make sure their companies get the top float price with no regard for its impact on liquidity later on.

但银行家们表示企业高管仰仗于基石投资者，以确保他们的企业拿到最高发行价，他们并不考虑这对日后流动性的影响。

A lot of our clients here work for the government and if you stick a book of demand in front of a bureaucrat and it is in theory more than one-and-a-half times covered at the top of the range, where do you think he’s going to price that deal? asked a Hong Kong banker.

一位香港银行家提出疑问：我们的很多客户都为政府工作，如果你把一本需求簿递到一名官僚面前，需求簿显示要发行的股票理论上在定价区间顶端获1.5倍以上超额认购，你觉得他会为这笔交易定价多少？

Bankers care about trading volumes because active markets mean more commission.

银行家关心成交量，因为活跃的市场意味着更多佣金。

There is an argument, too, that lower listing prices help produce that first-day price pop common in New York, which draws attention to the company and gives favoured institutional clients — who buy shares at the float price — a neat windfall.

还有一种说法是，较低的上市价格有助于制造纽约股市常见的那种首日价格暴涨，从而吸引市场注意到该公司，也让受到偏爱、以发行价购买股票的机构客户发一笔横财。

But investors also want interesting, liquid, companies on which to take a view.

但投资者也想要值得交易的有趣、流动性高的股票。

In two years, institutional investors’ presence as cornerstones has dropped from almost a third to 11 per cent.

两年时间里，机构投资者在基石投资者中占比从近三分之一下降至11%。

On average, trading in recent large Hong Kong IPOs — those that floated last year at more than $500m — reaches 4 per cent of the value of the freely floated shares per month and those with more cornerstones trade even less.

平均来说，近期香港那些大规模IPO——去年上市筹资超过5亿美元的IPO——中上市的股票的成交额，占每月自由流通股成交额的4%，而那些拥有更多基石投资的股票成交额更少。

In New York, daily trading hovers at the 13 per cent level.

在纽约市场，每日成交额在13%水平上下。

In a rising market, cornerstone issues would fade away as big investors eventually sold at a profit.

在一个股价不断上扬的市场，随着大投资者最终获利出售，围绕基石投资者的问题将逐渐消失。

The lack of interest in China, particularly its banks, makes that unlikely in the near term, while rehabilitating zombies will take a long time.

但由于市场对中国股——尤其是它的银行股——缺乏兴趣，这种情况短期内不太可能发生，而让僵尸股复原还需要很长时间。

In the meantime, calls are growing for the Hong Kong Exchange to reconsider the rules for lock-ups.

在此期间，要求港交所重新考虑禁售规则的呼声越来越高。

The likes of PSBC are too big to become zombies.

毕竟像中国邮政储蓄银行这样的股票盘子太大，不能放任它变成僵尸股。