2050年全球五分之四的老年人口将会居住在新兴市场

Four-fifths of the world’s elderly population will live in emerging markets by 2050, upending the view that ageing is primarily an issue for developed countries.

到2050年，全球五分之四的老年人口将会居住在新兴市场，这颠覆了老龄化主要是发达国家问题的观点。

China alone will see the number of over-60s jump from 209m (15 per cent of the population) today to 492m (36 per cent) by the middle of the century, according to estimates from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Public finances in countries ranging from Brazil to Turkey are also likely to be put under strain by a surge in retirees.

美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)估计，到本世纪中叶，仅中国一个国家的60岁以上人口就会从如今的2.09亿（占人口总数的15%）大幅增至4.92亿（占人口总数的36%）。从巴西到土耳其，许多国家的公共财政也可能因退休人口飙升而承压。

“We are living in the midst of the most remarkable demographic transition in history with life expectancy [likely] to reach 77.1 by 2050, versus 48 in 1950, the global 60-plus population [expected] to grow to 2.1bn by 2050, versus 901m today, and life expectancy increasing by one year every five years,” the bank says in a report entitled The Silver Economy — Global Ageing Primer.

该行在题为《银发经济——全球老龄化初阶》(The Silver Economy — Global Ageing Primer)的报告中表示：“我们正置身于史上最引人注目的人口结构转变过程中，到2050年预期寿命有望达到77.1岁，远高于1950年的48岁，到2050年全球60岁以上人口预计将增至21亿，远高于如今的9.01亿，预期寿命每5年延长一岁。”

“The extension of average lifespan is one of the greatest achievements of humanity,” BofA adds, citing UN forecasts that while the global population is expected to have risen 3.7 times between 1950 and 2050, the size of the 60-plus demographic is predicted to rise tenfold over the same period, and those 80-plus to rise 26-fold.

美银美林在报告中补充称：“平均寿命延长是人类最伟大的成就之一。”它援引联合国的预测称，尽管预计全球人口从1950年到2050年将增长3.7倍，但同期60岁以上人口的规模预计将增长10倍，80岁以上人口增长26倍。

The document builds on figures showing a striking rise in longevity in sub-Saharan Africa, the world’s poorest region, since 2000, with 30 countries seeing life expectancy rise more than 10 per cent in the past 15 years.

该报告建立在如下数据基础之上：自2000年以来，全球最贫穷的地区——撒哈拉以南非洲的预期寿命显著上升，30个国家的预期寿命在过去15年里增长10%以上。

Given the dramatic trends, BofA forecasts that by 2050 “emerging markets all over the world will be as old as Japan is today”.

鉴于这些戏剧化的趋势，美银美林预计，到2050年，“全世界新兴市场的老年人口比例将和现在的日本一样高”。

In China, for instance, based on UN data, it estimates that 27.6 per cent of the population will be aged 60-plus by 2050 (up from 8.2 per cent as of 2010), compared with 22.9 per cent in Japan today. It estimates that 22.8 per cent of Brazilians and 20.9 per cent of Russians will also be sexagenarians or older.

例如，该行根据联合国数据估计，在中国，到2050年27.6%的人口将是60岁以上（2010年该比例是8.2%），而日本现在的比例是22.9%。美银美林估计，届时巴西60岁以上的老年人口比例也将达到22.8%，俄罗斯将达到20.9%。

Overall, BofA envisages that 80 per cent of the over-60s will live in emerging markets by 2050, with a quarter of the population in both Asia and Latin America being of this age.

整体而言，美银美林估计，到2050年，在60岁以上的老年人当中，80%将居住在新兴市场，亚洲和拉丁美洲有四分之一人口将是60岁以上的老年人。

The Asia-Pacific region is expected to account for 61 per cent of these seniors by 2050, and two-thirds of the rise in those aged 60-plus, as the first chart shows. Africa and Latin America are expected to account for a further quarter of the growth in seniors, with Europe and North America seeing barely any rise, despite the panic about ageing in these regions.

正如第一张图表所示，到2050年，预计亚太地区的60岁以上老年人口占到全球的61%，而且60岁以上新增人口的三分之二来自该地区。预计非洲和拉美将占到新增老年人口的另外四分之一，而欧洲和北美的老年人口几乎没有增长，尽管这些地区对老龄化感到恐慌。

Moreover, this is not simply a case of emerging markets mirroring the trends already witnessed in the developed world. Instead, the transformation in the emerging world is happening at a rate inconceivable to most westerners.

此外，这不只是新兴市场重现发达世界趋势的问题。相反，新兴市场国家人口结构的这种转变速度对大多数西方人来说是不可想象的。

BofA quotes data suggesting that it took France 115 years to double the share of its population aged 65-plus from 7 to 14 per cent, Sweden 85 years, Australia 73 years and the US 69 years.

美银美林援引数据显示，法国65岁以上人口比例从7%增至14%用了115年，瑞典用了85年，澳大利亚用了73年，而美国用了69年。

In contrast, South Korea is expected to see the same transformation in just 18 years, Thailand and Brazil in 21 years, China in 23, Tunisia in 24 and Chile in 26, as the second chart shows.

相比之下，如第二张图表显示，预计韩国在短短18年就会完成同样的转变，泰国和巴西是21年，中国是23年，突尼斯是24年，智利是26年。

Moreover, it is only likely to take South Korea a further nine years to see its 65-plus cohort rise by a further 7 per cent of the population to 21 per cent.

此外，预计韩国65岁以上老年人口比例很可能再过9年就会进一步上升7个百分点，至21%。

China is expected to witness the same transformation in 11 years, Thailand in 14 and Brazil in 17, compared with 55 years in the UK, 42 in France and 40 in Sweden.

预计中国将在11年时间里完成同样的转变，泰国是14年，巴西是17年，相比之下，英国是55年，法国是42年，而瑞典是40年。

While rising longevity is clearly far better than the alternative, the advent of what BofA refers to as “peak youth” (globally, the number of people aged 65-plus is expected to outnumber the under-fives for the first time in human history by 2020) clearly throws up a series of challenges, particularly in the emerging world where resources are scarcer.

尽管寿命延长显然比缩短好得多，但美银美林所称的“年轻人峰值”(peak youth )的来临显然带来了一系列挑战，尤其是在资源较为匮乏的新兴世界。“年轻人峰值”是指到2020年，全球65岁以上人口数量预计将在人类历史上首次超过5岁以下人口的数量。

“Preparing for this demographic tidal wave is a pressing imperative for governments, businesses and individuals alike as people outlive assets,” BofA says.

美银美林表示：“对政府、企业和个人来说，准备应对这种人口结构浪潮迫在眉睫，很多人的资产将不足以让他们安享天年。”

The bank warns that age-related spending already constitutes 40 per cent of public expenditure in the developed world, and “rising age-related costs are likely to push 60 per cent of sovereigns into speculative grade”. Globally, two-thirds of employees are not saving for retirement.

它警告称，在发达世界，与年龄有关的支出已经占到公共支出的40%，而且“年龄相关成本日益增长可能推动60%的主权债务降至投机级别”。就全球而言，三分之二的雇员没有为退休储蓄。

Projections from the OECD, the club of mostly rich countries, suggest the changing demographics will hit the finances of EM governments hard.

成员大多是富裕国家的经合组织(OECD)的预测显示，日益改变的人口结构将重创新兴市场政府的财政。

It forecasts that by 2050, the cost of funding public pensions will edge up to 6.1 per cent of gross domestic product in the US and 8.1 per cent in the UK, while actually falling to 12.8 per cent of GDP in France.

该组织预计，到2050年，美国公共养老金融资成本与国内生产总值(GDP)之比将略升至6.1%，英国是8.1%，而法国实际上还将下降至12.8%。

In contrast, the OECD sees spending on public pensions surging from 6.3 per cent of GDP to 17 per cent in Turkey, from 9.1 per cent to 16.8 per cent in Brazil and from 3.4 per cent to 9.2 per cent in China, as the final chart shows.

相比之下，如最后一张图表显示，经合组织发现，土耳其公共养老金支出与GDP之比将从6.3%升至17%，巴西从9.1%升至16.8%，中国从3.4%升至9.2%。

Ageing populations are also likely to force many EM governments to spend more on healthcare, BofA argues. At present, emerging economies spend only 5.6 per cent of GDP on healthcare, compared with 12.5 per cent in developed countries, according to the World Economic Forum.

美银美林提出，人口老龄化还很可能迫使许多新兴市场政府加大医疗支出。世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)的数据显示，目前新兴经济体在医疗方面的支出只占到GDP的5.6%，而发达国家的这一比例为12.5%。

Yet, by 2030, China and India will have at least 380m diabetics, seven times the number in the US, the World Health Organisation forecasts.

然而，世界卫生组织(World Health Organisation)预测，到2030年，中国和印度的糖尿病患者将至少达到3.8亿，是美国的7倍。

As a result of such trends, the WEF forecasts that health spending in the emerging world will rise at an annual rate of 10.7 per cent up until 2022, far faster than the 3.7 per cent growth envisaged in developed countries.

世界经济论坛预计，此类趋势造成的结果是，新兴世界的医疗支出在2022年前将以每年10.7%的速度增长，远远超过发达国家3.7%的预计增速。