周五中国季度数据的五大看点 Chinese growth: 5 things to watch

China will report first-quarter growth in gross domestic product and other keenly watched economic data on Friday morning. Here are five points to watch.

周五早上，中国将报告一季度国内生产总值(GDP)增长数据及其他受到密切关注的数据。对于这些数据，以下五点值得关注。

1) Headline GDP growth. China’s economy grew 6.8 per cent in the fourth quarter last year and 6.9 per cent for the full year. Beijing has set a target of 6.5 to 7.0 per cent for 2016, the first time it has targeted a broad range rather than a single figure. If growth falls near the low end of that range — let alone below it — the government will face pressure to increase monetary and fiscal stimulus.

1) 倍受关注的GDP增速。去年第四季度中国经济增速为6.8%，全年增速为6.9%。中国政府为2016年设定的增长目标是6.5%到7%，这是中国政府首次把GDP增长目标定在一个区间而不是单个数字。如果增长速度落在该区间的低端（更不用说低于该区间了），中国政府将面临加大货币和财政刺激力度的压力。

2) Services. China’s traditional growth drivers of manufacturing and construction have nosedived amid a real estate slump, falling commodity prices and overcapacity. Services helped counteract the slowdown in the industrial sector last year, but there are doubts about whether rapid services growth can continue.

2) 服务业。由于房地产的下滑、大宗商品价格下跌以及产能过剩，制造业和建筑这两大中国传统的增长推动因素已大幅下滑。去年，服务业帮助抵消了工业部门的放缓，不过依然有人怀疑服务业的快速增长是否能够持续。

Financial services will be a particular focus. Early 2015 was the height of China’s stock market boom, so the base of comparison is high, suggesting that year-on-year growth for financial services is likely to fall sharply. The question is whether growth in other services, such as healthcare, education, travel and entertainment can take up the slack.

金融服务将尤其受到关注。2015年初是中国股市泡沫的最高峰时期，这导致比较的基准过高，也意味着金融服务业同比增长率可能会急剧下滑。问题在于，医疗保健、教育、旅游和娱乐等其他服务业能否把闲置的资源利用起来。

3) GDP deflator. Many analysts suspect that China’s statistics bureau tinkers with the politically sensitive real GDP growth figure to ensure it meets the government target. The main tool for such tinkering is thought to be the GDP deflator, the broad measure of price changes used to convert between nominal and inflation-adjusted growth.

3) GDP平减指数(GDP deflator)。许多分析师怀疑，中国的统计局会对政治上十分敏感的GDP增长数据加以改动，以确保该数据达到政府提出的目标。这种改动的主要工具被认为是GDP平减指数，该指数是衡量价格变化的大范围指标，用以实现名义GDP增长率和经通胀调整后的增长率之前的转换。

When the GDP deflator diverges sharply from more familiar measures of inflation, such as the consumer and producer price indices, suspicion of manipulation rises. The deflator was -0.73 per cent in the fourth quarter, the lowest since 2009. Both CPI and PPI ticked up in the first quarter, so if the deflator sinks further or even remains flat, it will be viewed as a sign of tinkering.

一旦GDP平减指数与人们更熟悉的通胀衡量指标（比如消费者价格指数(CPI)和生产者价格指数(PPI)）出现巨大分歧，就会出现政府操纵数据的怀疑。去年第四季度，中国GDP平减指数为负的0.73%，是自2009年以来的最低数值。今年第一季度CPI和PPI都曾上升，因此如果GDP平减指数进一步下滑甚至保持不变，都会被视为修改数据的证据。

4) Real estate. A property slump from 2014 through late last year was a major contributor to China’s overall economic slowdown, as a construction slowdown hit demand for commodities, such as steel, cement and copper. More recently, the property market has shown signs of a tentative recovery, with growth in prices, sales and investment all back in positive territory. Supportive policies — notably a cut in minimum mortgage downpayment rates — has fuelled the rebound.

4) 房地产。始于2014年、延续到去年底的一轮房地产下滑，是中国总体经济放缓的主要拖累因素，原因是建筑业放缓打击了对钢铁、水泥和铜等大宗商品的需求。更近一段时间内，房地产市场显示了暂时性复苏的迹象，房价、销售和投资增速都重返正区间。支持性政策——尤其是下调最低首付比例的政策——助长了这轮反弹。

The breakdown of GDP growth by the sector will show how much construction and real estate-linked services contributed to overall growth. Separate monthly data on real estate investment and sales will indicate whether momentum in the property market continued in March — a bullish sign for the rest of the year.

该产业对GDP增速的拖累，将显示出建筑和与房地产有关的服务业对GDP总体增长有多大的贡献。另行发布的有关房地产投资和销售的月度数据，将显示出房地产市场的增长势头在3月份是否持续下去，这将是今年剩余时期看多的一个证据。

5) Consumption. Along with services, consumption has been a growth-sustaining bright spot amid the sharp slowdown in investment over the past two years. Consumption contributed 66 per cent to overall GDP growth last year compared with 36 per cent for investment and -3 per cent for net exports. But growth of both disposable income and retail sales has moderated this year. If the growth contribution from consumption dips below 50 per cent, doubts will rise about whether economic rebalancing in China is possible without an even sharper slowdown in investment.

5) 消费。除了服务业以外，过去两年投资急剧放缓的同时，消费一直是维持增长的亮点。去年，中国GDP总体增长中有66%来自消费，相比之下投资的比例为36%，净出口则拖累了3%。不过，今年可支配收入和社会消费品零售总额的增幅都已经降低。如果源自消费的增长贡献比例跌至50%以下，人们将会怀疑中国是否可能在投资不进一步放缓的前提下实现经济再平衡。