量化宽松的负面影响开始显现
Ahead of a recent appearance in Hong Kong, one minder for Ben Bernanke suggested that the former chairman of the Federal Reserve should be asked not about the cost of quantitative easing, but about the impact of the policy instead.
在本伯南克(Ben Bernanke)近期现身香港前，一位关注他的人士曾表示，人们应当询问这位美联储(Fed)前主席的，不是量化宽松(QE)的成本，而是该政策的影响。
For years, central bankers have been reluctant to suggest unconventional monetary policies even had costs. But while developed markets plunge deeper into uncharted financial territory because of central bank actions, the drawbacks of such policies are becoming apparent.
多年来，央行官员们一直不愿承认，非常规货币政策也是有成本的。但是，随着发达市场由于央行措施而更深地跌入未知的金融境地，这些政策的缺点开始显露出来。
The negative effects will become more obvious. This will occur as asset price inflation — the main consequence of central bank policies — goes into reverse, robbing financial engineering of its efficacy and flattening the yield curve.
负面影响将表现得更为明显。这是因为，随着资产价格膨胀——央行政策的主要后果——发生逆转，资本运作将失去效果，收益率曲线将变得平缓。
Suddenly, the success of central bankers in lifting financial asset prices through unconventional monetary policies seems to be coming to an end. Those policies did little for the real economy on the way up, because most companies engaged more in share buybacks than in investing in capacity, and economic growth in the US, for example, never broke through a range of 2 per cent to 2.5 per cent, falling under 1 per cent in the fourth quarter. The impact on the real economy on the way down will be greater.
突然间，央行官员通过非常规货币政策推高金融资产价格的成功似乎将走到终点。那些政策对促进实体经济上行作用甚微，因为多数公司主要是用钱来回购股票，而不是投资于产能。比如，在美国，经济增长率向上从未突破2%至2.5%的区间，去年第四季度还降至不足1%。非常规货币政策对实体经济下行的影响将更大。
The Bank of Japan’s use of negative rates, dovish coos from New York Fed chairman William Dudley, and statements from Mr Bernanke’s successor, Janet Yellen, last week spooked markets rather than soothed them.
上周，日本央行(BoJ)祭出的负利率政策，纽约联储(New York Fed)主席比尔达德利(Bill Dudley)的鸽派言论，加上伯南克继任者珍妮特耶伦(Janet Yellen)的表态，都让市场感到紧张而不是安心。
The extent to which QE is losing effectiveness can be seen best in the drop in private equity firms’ share prices. In the past few years, it is possible to argue that no single group of investors has been as big a beneficiary of QE as these large alternative investment companies. They could finance deals with cheap debt, sell down holdings of portfolio companies in stock markets which kept rising, and mark up the value of their privately held portfolio companies on the basis of their listed peers. Now those perfect conditions are going into reverse.
私人股本公司的股价下跌，最能让人看出量化宽松在多大程度上丧失了效果。说起从量化宽松中得到的好处，可以说过去几年里没有哪个投资者群体比这些大型另类投资公司得到的更多。它们可以以廉价的债务为收购交易提供资金，在不断上涨的股市中减持投资标的公司的股权，并根据同类上市公司的价值，标高它们私人持有的投资标的公司的估值。如今，这些理想的条件开始发生逆转。
That’s why last week Apollo Global Management and Carlyle said they were planning some financial engineering by buying back their own shares for the first time. They may be too late. “The share buyback boom has peaked,” noted Christopher Wood, strategist for the CLSA arm of Citic Securities, citing “the dramatic underperformance of the S&P 500 Share Buyback index relative to the S&P 500 itself”. He added: “The stock market has been ignoring the clear evidence of deteriorating margins and profitability, a form of deception encouraged by the share buybacks.”
正因如此，上周阿波罗全球管理公司(Apollo Global Management)和凯雷(Carlyle)表示，计划首次运用金融工程来回购自己的股票。它们或许动作太迟了。“股票回购热潮已经见顶，”中信证券(Citic Securities)旗下里昂证券(CLSA)的策略师克里斯托弗伍德(Christopher Wood)指出。他给出的理由是，“标普500回购指数(S&P 500 Buyback Index)的表现比标普500指数(S&P 500 Index)本身差得多”。他补充称：“股票市场一直在忽略公司利润率和盈利能力恶化的明显证据，这是一种由股票回购助长的欺骗。”
Meanwhile, Blackstone’s Steve Schwarzman spent much of his recent earnings call with his investors talking up the dividend yield (11 per cent as of January 28, the day of the call) and value of his firm’s shares. “Right now you’re getting Blackstone on sale,” said the eternal salesman.
与此同时，在最近的一次财报电话会议上，黑石(Blackstone)的苏世民(Steve Schwarzman)用大量时间向投资者吹嘘黑石股票的股息率（截至会议当日的1月28日为11%）和价值。“现在你们买黑石股票相当于在享受折扣价，”这个总在推销自己公司的人说。
We are in a world where the yield curve is flattening and there is little demand to borrow other than to engage in financial engineering. Banks’ inability to earn money in that world dominated headlines last week. But it will leave other kinds of financial institutions in even worse shape, especially insurers that sold guaranteed investment contracts. And savers will earn even less on their savings.
在我们当前所处的世界中，收益率曲线正变得平缓，举债的需求很小，除非是为了去搞资本运作。上周，充斥媒体头条的故事都是银行在这样一个世界里不容易赚钱。但是，这个世界将让其他金融机构处于更艰难的境地，尤其是那些出售担保投资合同的保险公司。此外，储户在银行赚到的利息还会更少。
In an election year in the US, it seems unlikely the Fed will return to its previous pattern of purchasing more securities, given the fact that such policies are partly responsible for deepening income inequality. It is even more risky for the Fed to adopt a negative interest rates policy (NIRP) as so many other developed nations have, given that the impact on huge money market funds is unknown.
在美国大选年，美联储看来不太可能回到购买更多证券的老套路上，因为这样的政策在一定程度上加剧了收入不平等。美联储如果像许多其他发达国家那样实行负利率政策的话，甚至会带来更大风险，因为负利率政策会对庞大的货币市场基金产生何种影响还是个未知数。
“The US is not close to considering NIRP,” concluded JPMorgan economists in a report. “However, if recession risks were realised, the need for substantial additional policy support would likely push the Fed towards NIRP.”
“目前美国离考虑负利率政策还很远，”摩根大通(JPMorgan)经济学家在一份报告中得出结论。“然而，如果衰退风险变成现实，那么提供新的实质性政策支持的必要性，很可能会把美联储推向负利率政策。”
However, disconcertingly, the Fed’s latest stress test includes just that scenario,according to Mr Wood.
然而，伍德指出，令人不安的是，美联储最近的压力测试恰恰包括了上述情景。
Meanwhile, JPMorgan last week predicted that the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are likely to ease more. It is an odd world where the failure of unconventional monetary policies leads to more, rather than less, of the same. There will be worse to come.
同时，摩根大通上周预测，日本央行和欧洲央行(ECB)可能会加大宽松力度。这是一个奇怪的世界，非常规货币政策的失败反而导致这种政策加码而不是减码。未来的局面将会更糟糕。
