徐翔被抓只是时间问题 Xu downfall in China was just matter of time
The detention of “kamikaze” China hedge fund manager Xu Xiangfor alleged insider trading after a manhunt was front page news, but to industry insiders it was a downfall foretold.
在一通追捕后，以“涨停板敢死队总舵主”的称号闻名的中国对冲基金经理徐翔，因涉嫌内幕交易被拘，这一幕成了各报刊的头版新闻。然而，对业内人士来说，徐翔的落马早有先兆。
Renowned as “captain” of the “Limit-up Kamikaze Squad”, a loose-knit group of fund managers centred on the port city of Ningbo, Mr Xu favoured bets that were big, bold and bountiful.
徐翔偏爱高额、大胆、暴利的下注。而以他为首的所谓“涨停板敢死队”，则是指以港口城市宁波为中心的一群组织松散的基金经理。
The squad’s nickname salutes its ability to push stocks up by the 10 per cent daily limit imposed by China exchanges.
“涨停板敢死队”的称号，是在称颂他们将股价炒高至触及10%的中国证交所单日涨幅上限的能力。
In a market where many investors believe riches elude those who play by the rules, Mr Xu’s Zexi Investment Management drew scepticism.
在这个被许多投资者认为遵守游戏规则者与致富无缘的市场中，徐翔的泽熙投资管理公司(Zexi Investment Management)引起了人们的怀疑。
Five of Zexi’s products ranked among the top 20 in China by total return in 2015, with one taking the top spot. Its Series 1 fund has returned 3,270 per cent since launching in 2010.
2015年，泽熙五只基金产品的总回报率在中国排到了前20名，其中一只名列榜首。自2010年推出以来，该公司“泽熙一期”基金累计回报率已达3270%。
A hedge fund manager in Shanghai said: “Xu’s getting caught was just a matter of time. It just came a bit earlier than expected.”
上海一名对冲基金经理表示：“徐翔被抓只是时间问题。它只是比预料的早了一点。”
The manager added that Mr Xu’s conduct had been “an open secret”.
该基金经理补充说，徐翔的行为是“公开的秘密”。
Despite being ranked China’s 188th wealthiest person on the Hurun Rich List, with worth estimated at Rmb14bn ($2.2bn), little is known about the low-key Mr Xu, pictured right, and his fellow kamikazes. Until Sunday, no confirmed photos of him were available online.
在胡润百富榜(Hurun Rich List)上，徐翔是中国排名第188位的富豪，估计身家达140亿元人民币（合22亿美元）。尽管如此，对于低调的徐翔及其“敢死队”成员，外界知之甚少。直到上周日以前，网上还找不到经确认的他的照片。
But media reports and interviews with fund managers paint a portrait of the squad as investors willing to operate at the frontiers of legality — and sometimes beyond — in the wild west of China’s capital markets.
不过，媒体报道和对基金经理的采访描绘出这个“敢死队”的形象——他们是中国资本市场“狂野西部”中的一群敢于游走于法律边缘（有时还会越界）的投资者。
“Ningbo capitalists are different from those in other places,” says Hua Xiuping, finance professor at University of Nottingham Ningbo. “Their appetite for risk is high. This spirit has benefited entrepreneurship in Ningbo, but the love of gambling isn’t good for the long-term development of financial markets.”
宁波诺丁汉大学(University of Nottingham Ningbo)金融学教授华秀萍表示：“宁波的资本家与其他地方不同。他们的风险偏好很高。这种精神有益于在宁波创业。然而，热爱赌博对金融市场的长期发展并无益处。”
Mr Hua says that compared with other places, Ningbo investors are focused on short-term gain. “Research, buy in, sell out. Everything is quick.”
华秀萍表示，与其他地方相比，宁波的投资者关注的是短期收益。“研究，买入，卖出。一切都发生得很快。”
In 1993, an 18-year-old Mr Xu abandoned studying for China’s ruthlessly competitive university entrance exam, and borrowed several hundred thousand renminbi from his parents to play the markets, according to Caixin, a financial magazine that interviewed him in 2012.
财经杂志《财新》(Caixin)曾在2012年采访过徐翔。该杂志报道，1993年，18岁的徐翔放弃了中国高考的残酷竞争，带着父母给的几万元人民币本钱进入股票市场。
By the late 1990s he and associates from Ningbo had earned the “Limit-up Kamikaze” moniker for their penchant for high-stakes bets. Other traders began monitoring buy orders coming from the Galaxy Securities trading hall on South Liberation Road in Ningbo for clues about which stocks the squad favoured.
到上世纪90年代末，他和来自宁波的同伴已因其对高额下注的偏好而赢得了“涨停板敢死队”的绰号。其他交易员也开始跟踪发自宁波解放南路银河证券(Galaxy Securities)交易大厅的买盘，寻找这支敢死队偏好的股票的线索。
Among his fellow kamikazes was Ye Qingjun, chairman of Dunhe Investment, known as “China’s George Soros” for parlaying a Rmb100,000 mortgage on his home in 2003 into a Rmb10bn fortune, starting with a bet on soya beans.
徐翔的“敢死队”中有个成员名叫叶庆均，是敦和投资(Dunhe Investment)的董事长。他把2003年通过抵押房子借来的10万元人民币，从投资大豆期货开始，变成100亿元人民币的财富，这让他被誉为“中国的乔治∠坽斯(George Soros)”。
Mr Ye gained attention earlier this year when China funds including Dunhe took big short positions in copper futures, a bear attack that traders said was “beautifully” timed.
今年早些时候，叶庆均曾引起人们的关注。当时，包括敦和在内的多只中国基金大规模做空期铜。交易员表示，这次做空的时机选择“十分完美”。
“If you think American traders are aggressive, these guys are three times as big and as fast and crazy,” said a trader at the time. “It’s like they’re on speed.”
当时，一名交易员表示：“如果你认为美国交易员很激进的话，那么这些家伙在交易规模、速度和疯狂程度上是美国交易员的三倍。他们就像嗑了药一样。”
Not all the kamikazes’ trades went smoothly. In 2007 Zhou Jianming, an associate of Mr Xu from Ningbo, was fined Rmb3.5m for illegal trading practices. China’s securities regulator accused Mr Zhou of submitting buy orders, which he then promptly cancelled — “ spoofing” aimed at fooling other investors into buying on the back of perceived strong demand.
“涨停板敢死队”并不是所有交易都一帆风顺。2007年，徐翔来自宁波的伙伴周建明曾因违法交易被没收和罚款350万元人民币。中国证券业监管机构指控周建明在提交买单后又快速将其取消。这种“幌骗”(spoofing)手法旨在欺骗其他投资者，让他们以为存在强劲的需求而买入。
The kamikazes found ways of putting the attention they attracted from other investors to advantage, using it to influence herd behaviour in a market where psychology often trumps fundamentals.
这支“敢死队”还想到多种办法，对他们从其他投资者那里吸引到的关注加以利用。在这个心理因素往往会压倒基本面因素的市场中，他们会利用这种关注来影响市场中的从众行为。
Mr Xu and his associates were known for their skill at da pan — “pound the board” — a technique akin to “pump and dump”, though the Chinese term does not necessarily imply illegality. The practice is especially easy with smaller, illiquid stocks. Once other investors poured in, the kamikazes sold at a profit.
徐翔及他的伙伴们以一种类似于拉高出货的操盘技术而闻名。对于规模较小、流动性较差的股票，这种操作尤其容易。一旦其他投资者大举涌入，“敢死队”就会获利出货。
In one trade, Mr Xu bought into Chongqing Brewery in early 2012 just after the stock had fallen from Rmb83 to Rmb20 in a few days. The stock had rocketed after the company announced, improbably, that it had stumbled on a potential hepatitis-B vaccine.
2012年初，就在重庆啤酒(Chongqing Brewery)股价在几天内从每股83元人民币跌至每股20元人民币之后，徐翔大举买入该股。重庆啤酒之前曾飙涨，因为其宣布偶然发现了一种可能的乙肝疫苗（这让人不太敢相信）。
