全球基金经理准备过冬 Fund managers brace for global recession

Fund managers are bracing for a global recession by selling stocks and commodities, according to a monthly survey of investors by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

根据美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)发布的一份月度投资者调查，基金经理正卖出股票和大宗商品，准备迎接全球衰退。

The latest sign of concern for the economic outlook comes as investors balance the effect of recovery in the US against a slowdown for China and countries that supply it with raw materials.

这一表明投资者对经济前景感到担忧的最新迹象，出现在投资者权衡美国经济复苏与中国及其原材料供应国经济放缓的影响孰轻孰重之际。

BofA on Tuesday described a sense of “unambiguous pessimism” at the start of September, with a third of respondents saying stock prices looked the most vulnerable to tighter monetary policy in the US.

美银美林周二发布的调查报告，描述了9月初市场上弥漫的一种“明确的悲观情绪”，有三分之一的受访者表示，股市看上去最容易受到美国收紧货币政策的冲击。

A sustained rebound in the US, where unemployment has fallen to its lowest level since April 2008, means the Federal Reserve may this week raise interest rates for the first time in nine years.

美国经济持续复苏，失业率已降至自2008年4月以来最低水平，这意味着，美联储(Fed)本周可能加息，这将是9年来的首次。

However, investors appear more concerned about the risk of monetary policy being tightened too soon, while the state of the world economy remains uncertain and the rate of inflation is low.

然而，投资者似乎更担心货币政策收紧时机过早的风险，此际全球经济状况仍不确定，且通胀率处于低位。

Expectations for global economic growth, and the share of portfolios directed towards stocks, are the lowest in three years, according to the bank. Fund flows this year have favoured government bonds and eurozone equities at the expense of US shares and emerging market assets.

根据美银美林的调查，全球经济增长预期以及投资组合中股票所占比例处于3年低点。今年的资金流动青睐政府债券和欧元区股票，而美国股票和新兴市场资产遭到抛售。

Only a quarter of respondents predicted a tightening of Fed policy this week, down from almost half in August. The first move is still thought to be imminent, however, with more than three-quarters of investors polled expecting a rate rise before the end of the year.

只有四分之一的受访者预期美联储本周会加息，8月份的这个比例为将近一半。然而，受访者仍认为美联储的首次加息近在眼前，有超过四分之三的受访者预测美联储将在今年年底前加息。

The report comes after Citigroup on Monday said a global recession in 2016 caused by China had become the most likely scenario for the world economy. “The likelihood of a timely and effective policy response seems to be diminishing,” economists for the bank wrote.

在这份报告出炉之前，花旗集团(Citigroup)周一表示，中国导致全球经济在2016年陷入衰退已成为可能性最大的情景。花旗集团经济学家写道：“做出及时有效政策回应的可能性似乎在减小。”

Citi identified overcapacity in several sectors, excessive financial leverage, and exuberant asset prices as risks for China, whose demand for raw materials has buoyed other developing economies for a decade.

花旗将多个行业的产能过剩、金融杠杆过高以及资产价格高涨视为中国的风险所在。10年来，中国对原材料的需求一直支撑着其他发展中经济体。

Investors have shunned commodities, according to BofA, and identified a recession in China as the greatest “tail risk”, an event they see as possible and damaging but not likely. The monthly survey, which polled the views of 214 investors overseeing $593bn in assets, reported a drop in use of leverage by hedge funds to the lowest level since June 2012.

根据美银美林的这份调查，投资者近来一直避开大宗商品，同时把中国衰退视为最大的“尾部风险”，即他们认为中国衰退是有可能的、而且是具有破坏性的，但发生的可能性不是很大。这份月度调查了解了214名投资者的看法——这些投资者总共管理着5930亿美元资产——结果发现，对冲基金杠杆使用率已降至自2012年6月以来的最低水平。

“Investor sentiment is extremely depressed,” said Trevor Greetham, head of multi-asset for Royal London.

Royal London多元资产主管特雷弗格里瑟姆(Trevor Greetham)表示：“投资者情绪极其低落。”

He said the investment manager tracked four indicators of sentiment, and the composite indicator created had dived in the past week to levels last seen during the European debt crisis and the 2008 financial crisis.

他表示，过去一周，Royal London追踪4种情绪指标得出的综合指标已降至上次在欧债危机期间以及2008年金融危机期间见到的水平。

The bull market for US stocks has entered a seventh year, but the S&P 500 remains on course for losses in 2015 after falling 9 per cent during a turbulent August.

美国股市的牛市已进入第七个年头，但照目前的趋势，今年标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)仍将下跌；在市场动荡不安的8月份，该指数下跌了9%。