美联储加息条件接近成熟 Conditions for rate rise approaching

Federal Reserve policymakers expressed concern about low inflation as well as threats to the US economy posed by a stronger dollar and developments in China, but deemed conditions for a rate rise to be “approaching”, according to minutes released on Wednesday.

周三公布的会议纪要显示，美联储(Federal Reserve)政策制定者对低通胀、对美元走强和中国形势对美国经济构成的威胁表示关切，但认为加息的条件正在“接近”成熟。

The minutes of the July 28-29 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee include no mention of any plans to raise rates at their next meeting September 16-17. They point to a vigorous debate within the Fed over a number of key data points including inflation and the timing of an increase.

联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC) 7月28-29日的会议纪要，没有提到在9月16-17日下次会议加息的计划。纪要透露的情况是，美联储内部围绕一些关键数据点（包括通胀和加息时机）正在展开激烈辩论。

But the minutes also offer a view of a Fed that is clearly approaching decision time on raising rates for the first time in almost a decade with much of the bank’s internal discussions focused on how best to communicate the eventual move to markets.

但纪要也让人看到，美联储显然正在接近差不多10年来首次加息的决策时间，该机构的内部讨论有很大一部分聚焦于如何最好地向市场传达最终的行动。

“Most [FOMC members] judged that the conditions for policy firming had not yet been achieved, but they noted that conditions were approaching that point,” Fed staff wrote.

“大多数（FOMC成员）判断，收紧政策的条件尚未具备，但他们指出，各项条件正在接近这一点，”美联储人员写道。

When that moment came, however, the Fed’s policymakers appeared keen to emphasise that it would likely be followed only by modest future increases in the federal funds rate.

然而，美联储政策制定者似乎热衷于强调，当加息条件成熟时，联邦基金利率接下来很可能只是适度上调。

Members of the FOMC were keen to make sure that “the committee’s communications around the time of the first rate increase should emphasise that the expected path for policy, not the initial increase, would be the most important determinant of financial conditions and should acknowledge that policy would continue to be accommodative,” Fed staff wrote.

联邦公开市场委员会的成员们热衷于确保“首次加息前后，委员会的沟通应该强调，政策的预期路径，而不是初次加息本身，将是金融条件的最重要决定因素，同时应该承认政策将继续保持宽松，”美联储人员写道。

The July meeting took place before China’s move last week to depreciate its currency, the renminbi, in what many have interpreted as an expression of concern by the leadership in Beijing over the slowing Chinese economy.

7月的会议是在中国上周让人民币贬值之前召开的。很多人的解读是，中国此举反映出北京的领导层对于中国经济不断放缓感到担忧。

But the Fed policymakers already had the potential risks posed by China in mind when they met in July. Some FOMC members expressed concerns about events there even as they saw diminishing risks of an escalating crisis in Greece.

但美联储政策制定者在7月开会时已经料到了中国构成的潜在风险。一些FOMC成员对中国的事态表示关注，即便在他们看来，希腊危机升级的风险正在逐渐消失。

“While the recent Chinese stock market decline seemed to have had limited implications to date for the growth outlook in China, several participants noted that a material slowdown in Chinese economic activity could pose risks to the US economic outlook,” the minutes said.

“虽然近期中国股市下跌对中国增长前景的影响迄今似乎有限，但数名与会者指出，中国经济活动若发生实质性放缓，可能给美国经济前景带来风险，”会议纪要称。

There were also concerns that a Fed move to raise rates could lead to a divergence internationally in interest rates that “might lead to further appreciation of the dollar, extending the downward pressure on commodity prices and the weakness in net exports,” Fed staff wrote.

美联储人员写道，还有人担心，美联储加息可能导致国际间利率走势分化，“可能导致美元进一步升值，扩大大宗商品价格的下行压力，加剧美国净出口的疲弱”。