华晨中国预警 上半年利润降40%
A profit warning at Brilliance China Automotive, BMW’s Chinese business partner, has cast a further cloud over the outlook for premium car sales in the world’s largest car market.
宝马(BMW)的中国商业伙伴华晨中国汽车(Brilliance China Automotive)发布盈利预警,给世界最大汽车市场的高档车销售前景蒙上了一层新的阴影。Brilliance said first-half profit attributable to shareholders would be around 40 per cent lower than during the same period last year, which it blamed mostly on the performance of its 50-50 joint venture with BMW.
华晨中国表示,今年上半年其净利润将比去年同期下降约40%。华晨中国认为,主要原因是其与宝马对半持股的合资公司业绩欠佳。Brilliance attributed the expected profit decline to the “higher selling costs incurred . . . as a result of the slowdown in growth of the Chinese economy and the automotive industry” as well as costs related to the launch of new models and production facilities.
华晨中国将预期的利润下降归因于“由中国经济和汽车业增长放缓导致的……销售成本上升”、以及与推出新车型及新生产设施有关的成本。
As the Chinese economy slows, sales of big-ticket items such as cars have come under pressure. China has clamped down on the issue of new car registrations to combat pollution and congestion and a government crackdown on corruption has also tempered consumption.
随着中国经济放缓,像汽车这样的高价商品的销售面临压力。中国为应对污染和交通堵塞限制新车上牌,政府的反腐运动也影响了消费。Meanwhile, China’s domestic car manufacturers have also ratcheted up competition in the highly-profitable sport utility vehicle sector.
同时,在高利润的运动型多功能车(SUV)领域,来自中国本土汽车制造商的竞争也加强了。BMW was, until recently, accustomed to large double-digit sales growth in China, but in June its China sales were flat year-on-year while in May sales declined by 4 per cent year-on-year — the first decline in China for a decade. In the first six months of this year BMW’s China sales increased 2.5 per cent.
在中国,宝马已习惯于两位数的销售增长,但今年6月,其在中国的销售与去年同期持平,而5月份的销售则同比下降4%——这是10年来宝马在中国市场的销售首次下降。今年上半年,宝马在华销量仅增长了2.5%。Dealers have therefore been obliged to offer discounts to defend their market share, which has forced BMW to pay rebates to local sales representatives.
因此,经销商们不得不提供折扣、以保住自己的市场份额,这迫使宝马向当地销售代表支付回扣。BMW has long forecast a “normalisation” of the Chinese car market and concedes it has been spoiled in the past by high growth rates there.
长期以来,宝马一直预测中国汽车市场将“趋向正常”,并承认自己已被此前在中国享受的高增长率宠坏了。The carmaker forecast in March that sales growth in China in 2015 would moderate to a single-digit percentage compared with 16.5 per cent last year.
宝马在3月预测,2015年其在中国的销量增长将降至个位数,而去年这个数字是16.5%。The Brilliance warning did not come as a big surprise: analysts had already moderated their expectations for China income at BMW this year following a first-quarter fall in equity income from the Brilliance joint venture.
华晨中国的预警并不让人大跌眼镜:第一季度来自华晨宝马的股权收益出现下降后,分析师已下调了对宝马今年在华收入的预期。Nor have BMW’s China problems been reflected at all of Germany’s carmakers. Porsche’s Chinese sales rose 71 per cent year-on-year in June. Meanwhile, Mercedes-Benz boasted a 38.5 per cent sales increase in China in June compared with a year ago, after it overcame issues at its distributors and thanks to its young line-up of models.
并非所有德国汽车制造商都遭遇了宝马在中国遇到的难题。6月份,保时捷(Porsche)在华销量同比增长71%。克服了分销商问题后,梅赛德斯-奔驰(Mercedes-Benz)的新车型阵容使其6月份在华销量同比增长了38.5%。In a recent note Arndt Ellinghorst, analyst at Evercore ISI, said: “Whilst sales momentum [in China] has been cooling off since middle of last year, this is still a market that offers growth and serves as a considerable earnings pillar for western [carmakers]”.
Evercore ISI分析师阿恩特•埃林霍斯特(Arndt Ellinghorst)在最近的一份报告中表示:“尽管去年中期以来(中国市场的)销售势头一直在减弱,中国依然是一个提供增长的市场,是西方(汽车制造商)的一大盈利支柱。”