报告预测 2055年全球近半数工作可被机器人替代
About half of the work carried out by people has the potential to be automated by 2055 with adaptions to technology, a McKinsey Global Institute report predicted.
麦肯锡全球研究院近日发布的一份报告预测，到2055年，约半数人工工作可能通过采用技术而实现自动化。That would amount to $11.9 trillion in wages lost, with China and India accounting for the largest potential employment impact.
这相当于减少11.9万亿美元的薪酬，中国和印度可能受到的就业影响最大。The report, entitled "A future that works: automation, employment and productivity", analyzes the automation potential of the global economy, covering all sectors in more than 50 countries.
这份题为《未来产业：自动化、就业与生产力》的报告分析了全球经济的自动化潜力，覆盖50多国的各个领域。
At a time of lackluster productivity growth worldwide, automation technologies including robotics, artificial intelligence and machine learning can give a much-needed boost to economic growth, according to Joe Ngai, managing director of McKinsey's Hong Kong office.
麦肯锡香港分公司总经理倪以理表示，在全球生产力增长乏力之际，机械人技术、人工智能、机器学习等自动化技术可为经济增长注入强心针。He expects automation could raise productivity growth globally by 0.8 percent to 1.4 percent.
他预计自动化可将全球生产力提升0.8%至1.4%。
At a global level, technically automatable activities touch the equivalent of 1.1 billion employees and 11.9 trillion U.S. dollars in wages, according to the report.
报告指出，全球范围来看，可自动化的工作内容涉及相当于11亿名员工及11.9兆美元的薪酬。The report also showed that activities most susceptible to automation are physical ones in highly structured and predictable environments, as well as data collection and processing, mostly reflected in manufacturing, accommodation and retail trade.
报告还显示，最易受到自动化影响的工作包括高度结构化及可预测环境中的体力劳动，以及数据收集和处理工作，常见于制造业、酒店业、零售业。Ngai said the robots and computers can not only perform a range of routine physical work activities better and more cheaply than humans, but are also increasingly capable of accomplishing activities that include cognitive capabilities once considered too difficult to automate successfully, such as sensing emotion or driving.
倪以理表示，机器人与电脑目前不仅能更有效率地从事各种体力劳动的工作，还能完成更多过去难以被自动化、需要认知能力的工作，例如认知判断、情绪反应及自动驾驶等。If full or partial automation results in a significant reduction in employment or pressure on wages, some ideas such as negative income taxes, universal basic income, conditional transfers and adapted social safety nets could be considered by the governments, Ngai said.
他表示，如果自动化导致就业机会大幅减少或薪资压力，政府可考虑补贴所得税、统一基本薪酬、有条件转业及调整社会安全网等措施。
