铁饭碗时代一去不返 New gig economy spells end to lifetime careers

The archetypal worker in an advanced economy used to be a man on a production line or a salaryman in a city office — a secure, yet repressed, cog in a machine. “A crowd flowed over London Bridge, so many/I had not thought death had undone so many,” wrote T.S. Eliot in The Wasteland, who once worked at Lloyds Bank.

发达经济体的典型工人曾经是生产线上的工人或是城市办公室里的上班族——他们就像一台机器中享受保障但却被压抑着的齿轮。“一群人流过伦敦桥，这么多，我从没想过死亡毁灭了这么多(A crowd flowed over London Bridge, so many/I had not thought death had undone so many)，”T匠縠斂祵(T. S. Eliot)在《荒原》(The Wasteland)写道，他就曾在劳埃德银行(Lloyds Bank)工作。

There are still millions of these, including many women, but the new world of work is both more exciting and less secure. There is greater variety, in both pay and conditions. A job is more likely to be part-time, temporary, freelance or self-employed. It may not be a job at all, in the way it used to be defined.

如今仍然有数百万这样的劳动者，其中包括很多女性，但是新的就业世界更令人兴奋但保障性也更低。无论是薪资水平还是工作条件都更加多样化。人们从事兼职、短期工作、自由职业或自我雇佣的可能性更大了。用过去的定义来衡量，现在的工作可能根本不算工作。

Hillary Clinton, the Democratic presidential candidate, lamented in a recent campaign speech the weakening of the US employment bargain that “built the greatest economy and the strongest middle class the world has ever known” — that “if you work hard and do your part, you should be able to get ahead”. As she observed, the “gig economy”, the growth of online platforms such as Airbnb and Uber on which people buy and sell services and jobs, “is creating exciting economies and unleashing innovation, but it is also raising hard questions about workplace protections and what a good job will look like in future”.

在最近一次竞选演讲中，美国民主党总统候选人希拉里克林顿(Hillary Clinton)悲叹，“打造了世界上迄今最大经济体及最强中产阶级”的美国职业契约，即“只要努力工作并发挥自己的作用，就可以获得成功”的契约，如今受到了削弱。正如她所说，“零工经济”(gig economy)——Airbnb和Uber等人们在上面购买和出售服务及工作的互联网平台的增长——“正在创造着激动人心的经济并释放了创新，但这也带来了关于工作场所保护措施及未来该如何定义好工作的严峻问题。”

The gig economy is only part of a shift in employment over the past three decades, unleashed by technology and global trade. It has created many winners and losers, both by outsourcing jobs from the west to Asia and Africa, and by changing the terms on which most people work. Financial and contractual risk that used to be borne by companies has been transferred to employees.

“零工经济”只是过去30年发生在就业领域的转变的一部分，这一转变是科技和全球贸易带来的。通过将工作从西方外包到亚洲和非洲、以及改变多数人的工作条款，这种经济催生了很多赢家和输家。过去由公司承担的财务和合同风险，如今已经转嫁给了雇员。

“Gone is the era of the lifetime career, let alone the life-long job and the economic security that came with it, having been replaced by a new economy intent on recasting full-time employees into contractors, vendors and temporary workers,” Nick Hanauer and David Rolf wrote recently in Democracy Journal, although the US jobs statistics do not yet reflect such a transformation.

“终身制职业的时代一去不复返，更不用说其附带的‘铁饭碗’以及经济保障了，取而代之的是一个决心要将全职员工转换为承包人、供应商及临时工的新型经济，”尼克哈诺尔(Nick Hanauer)和戴维圠尔夫(David Rolf)最近在《民主期刊》(Journal of Democracy)写道，尽管美国就业数据尚未反映出这种转变。

Yet this world of insecurity and risk is also one that many people seem to appreciate. More self-employed people in Europe and the US report enjoying their jobs than those who are employed. Many entrepreneurs, even those who run a tiny business that amounts to self-employment, like their freedom and self-reliance and the possibility that they could become wealthy.

不过，如今这个没有保障且充满风险的就业世界，似乎也是很多人所青睐的。在欧洲和美国，自称享受工作的自我雇佣劳动者多于全职雇员。很多创业者，甚至那些经营小本生意的人（相当于自我雇佣），都喜欢这种自由、自力更生以及有朝一日可能发财的感觉。

There is a lot of potential in the new world of work. The McKinsey Global Institute, the research arm of the management consultancy, estimates that what it calls “online talent platforms”, job sites such as and platforms such as Uber, could add 2 per cent to global gross domestic product by 2025, increasing employment by 72m full-time equivalents.

新型就业世界存在很多可能性。管理咨询公司麦肯锡(McKinsey)旗下的研究机构——麦肯锡全球研究所(McKinsey Global Institute)预计，到2025年，包括等招聘网站以及Uber等平台在内的“在线人才平台”，有望贡献2%的全球GDP，并创造相当于7200万份全职工作的就业机会。

The UK has added 1.4m “micro-firms”, those with between zero and nine employees, since 2000. The Freelancers Union, a US employee group, estimates that 53m Americans now freelance in some form, including 21m independent contractors. Some 82 per cent of millennials believe that the best days for freelancers lie ahead.

自2000年以来，英国增加了140万家“微型企业”，即雇员人数在0至9人之间的企业。美国就业者组织“自由职业者联盟”(Freelancers Union)估计，如今有5300万美国人在从事某种形式的自由职业，其中包括2100万独立承包人。千禧一代中约82%的人认为，自由职业者的最好时代即将到来。

The ideal working life for many millennials is not finding a safe job that will last them a lifetime but creating a technology start-up, a glamorous form of small business that is backed by angel investors. They dream of being Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook or Larry Page and Sergey Brin of Google, not an executive of a professional services firm or public company.

对于很多千禧一代来说，完美的工作生活并非找到一份能够做一辈子的稳定工作，而是创办一家创业型科技公司——即那种由天使投资者出资、充满魅力的小型企业。他们梦想着成为Facebook的马克丠克博格(Mark Zuckerberg)或谷歌(Google)的拉里椠奇(Larry Page)和谢尔盖布林(Sergey Brin)那样的人物，而不是专业服务机构或上市公司的高管。

The dream can be just that; the average income from self-employment fell 22 per cent in the UK between 2009 and 2014, even as self-employment contributed 732,000 of the 1.1m rise in total employment. The rewards of new forms of employment contract accrue to a minority, while others lose out.

梦想只能停留为梦想：2009年至2014年，英国自我雇佣者的平均收入下滑了22%，尽管在此期间增加的110万个就业岗位中，自我雇佣工作占了73.2万个。新型就业合同只让少数人尝到了甜头，而其他人则成为输家。

The challenge for policymakers is to find a new form of employment contract that suits the changing workforce. Benefits such as pensions and sick leave are often attached to permanent jobs and increase with longevity. As jobs fracture, individuals who switch jobs, work as consultants or run “micro-businesses” with one or two employees need similar support.

政策制定者面临的挑战是找到一种新型就业合同，以适应不断变化的劳动力。养老金和病假等福利往往是固定工作专属的，并随着工作年限的增加而增多。随着工作性质的多样化，那些打零工、做咨询或者经营一家只有一两名雇员的“微型企业”的人也需要类似的保障。

There are already legal rumblings.

现在已经有了相应的法律调整。

The Labor Commissioner’s Office in California ruled in June that Uber drivers were in effect employees, not independent contractors, as the company sees them. The UK government is raising the adult minimum wage and the New York Wage Board has recommended phasing in a $15 minimum wage for the state’s fast-food workers.

加州劳工专员办公室(The Labor Commissioner’s Office)于6月裁定Uber司机事实上属于员工而非Uber所认为的独立承包人。英国政府准备提高成人最低时薪，纽约州工资委员会(New York Wage Board)建议将该州快餐业员工的最低时薪设定为15美元。

The task is to limit the downside of the new economy without curtailing job growth or preventing people from working in they way they prefer. There is a danger of romanticising the past benefits of permanent full-time employment and fixed-job contracts when many now want alternatives.

现在的任务是对这一新型经济的不利之处加以遏制，而又不抑制就业增长或阻止人们以自己喜欢的方式工作。在眼下很多人都想要其他选择的情况下，存在将过去全职终身雇佣制及固定工作合同的好处浪漫化的风险。

Few want to be a cog in a machine, even if they are given the chance. The new world of work must chart a course between the twin dangers of corporate conformism and worker exploitation.

几乎没有人想要成为机器中的齿轮，即便他们有那样的机会。盲从于企业与剥削劳动者是两种相生相伴的危险，新的就业世界必须在这两者之间开辟出一条道路。