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A Changed Global Reality 世界经济格局新变化
Say this for the young century: we live in interesting times. Not quite 2 1⁄2 years ago, the world economy tipped into the most severe downturn since the Great Depression in the 1930s. World trade slowed sharply. Unemployment lines grew longer, especially in the old industrial economies. Financial institutions that had seemed as solid as granite disappeared as if they were no more substantial than a bunch of flowers in the hands of an old-style magician. 对于新世纪，我们得这样说：我们生活在一个有趣的时代。差不多两年半之前，世界经济陷入了20世纪30年代经济大萧条时期以来最惨重的低迷状态。世界贸易进程大幅放缓。失业队伍也越来越快，这在旧工业经济体系表现尤为突出。原来坚如磐石的金融机构也消失了，似乎还不如老套的魔术师变的花束看起来真实。
Given that the scale of the downturn was so epochal, it should not be surprising that the nature of the recovery would likewise be the stuff of history. And it has been. As they make their way to Davos for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) by helicopter, bus, car or train (which is the right way to do it), the members of the global economic and political elite will find themselves coming to terms with something they have never known before. 考虑到经济衰退幅度如此的跨时代，经济复苏进程会很慢也是理所当然的，对此我们不应该感到吃惊。事实也正如我们所料，复苏进程确实很慢。全球经济政治精英乘直升飞机、大巴、小汽车或是火车前往达沃斯参加一年一度的世界经济论坛会议，此次会议上，全球经济政治精英会发现自己开始接受一些闻所未闻的事情。
The new reality can be expressed like this. For more than 200 years, since the Industrial Revolution, the world has seen two economies. One has dominated technological innovation and trade and amassed great wealth. The second — much of it politically under the thumb of the first — has remained poor and technologically dependent. This divide remains stubbornly real. The rich world — the U.S., Canada, Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and the four original Asian dragons — accounts for only 16% of total world population but nearly 70% of world output. 当今的情况是这样的。自工业革命以来的二百多年间，世界出现了两大经济体。一个支配着技术创新和贸易，累积了大量财富。另一个在政治上主要受前者的控制，在经济上一直处于贫穷状态并且在技术上存在依赖性。两者的鸿亘古存在。发达国家----美国、加拿大、西欧、澳大利亚、新西兰、日本及亚洲四小龙，以世界总人口的16%输出着世界将近70%的产品。
But change is upon us. The developed world of the haves is struggling to restart growth and preserve welfare states, while the world of the once have-nots has surged out of the downturn. Big emerging economies like China and India have discovered new sources of domestic demand. Parts of Africa are attracting real interest from investors. All told, the strength of the developing world has supported the global economy. The World Bank estimates that economic growth in low- and middle-income countries contributed almost half of world growth (46%) in 2010. 世界形势正发生着变化。在发达国家的富人们努力重新刺激经济增长并维持社会福利的时候，曾经的穷人们却已经摆脱了经济困境。像中国和印度这样大的新兴经济体已经找到了国内需求的新来源。非洲的部分地区也正吸引着对他们真正感兴趣的投资者。总之，发展中国家的力量撑起了世界经济。据世界银行估计，2010年，中低收入国家的经济增长约占世界经济增长的一半(46%)。
A Sigh of Relief 经济回暖，令人欣慰
In the long term, this is nothing but good news. As billions of poor people become more prosperous, they will be able to afford the comforts their counterparts in the rich world have long considered the normal appurtenances of life. But before we celebrate a new economic order, deep divisions both between and within nations have to be overcome. Otherwise, the world could yet tip back into a beggar-thy-neighbor populism that will end up beggaring everyone. We are not out of the woods yet. 从长远看来，这真的是个好消息。随着几十亿的贫苦人们开始变得富有起来，他们也将能够支付得起发达国家的人们所拥有过的享受，而这些享受在富人们眼中仅仅是普通的生活附属品而已。但是，在庆祝一个新的经济秩序建立之前，我们必须克服国与国之间以及国家内部存在的深层分歧。否则，世界将会重新陷入以邻为壑的民粹主义，最终每个人都沦为乞丐，我们仍未脱离困境。
First, though, let's assess how things stand. The world is in a much better state than many expected it would be a year ago. The double-dip recession some economists feared never materialized. In the U.S., which seemed to stall in the summer, there are early signs that consumers are spending and banks are lending again, while the stock market is at its highest point in 21⁄2 years. Though Europe is wheezing under cascading sovereign-debt crises, it has so far avoided the worst-case scenarios — a collapse of the euro, a debt crisis that spills from small economies such as Greece and Ireland to much bigger ones like Italy and Spain, and bitter social unrest in those nations that are having to massage wages down while cutting public budgets. 不过首先让我们评估一下目前情况。现在世界的状况比一年前我们所想象的要好得多。一些经济学家一直害怕发生的“双底衰退”也从未出现过。2008年的美国经济似乎一直停滞不前，但是现在一些早期迹象表明顾客开始消费了，银行也开始发放贷款了，同时股市也在经济萧条两年半之后达到了巅峰状态。尽管欧洲一直在一重接一重的主权外债危机下苟延残喘，但是它到目前为止已经避免了最糟糕的状况-----欧元崩溃，欧元崩溃是一种债务危机，从希腊和爱尔兰这样小的经济体流窜到意大利和西班牙这样大的经济体，并且加剧了一些国家的社会骚乱，这些国家在缩减公共预算的同时不得不减少薪资。
Amid all the encouraging news (or at least the absence of terrible tidings), Goldman Sachs economists have turned practically giddy, recently upgrading their 2011 global- and U.S.-growth forecasts (to 4.8% and 3.4%, respectively). While 2010 was the "Year of Doubt," 2011, they proclaim, will be the "Year of Recovery." U.S. economist Nouriel Roubini, the Cassandra of the crisis, reckons that if all goes right and nothing terrible goes wrong, the global economy might grow nearly 4% this year. 听到如此多鼓舞人心的消息(或者至少是没有很糟糕的消息)，高盛经济学家几乎变得轻率起来，最近他们更新了2011年全球和美国经济增长预测(分别是4.8%和3.4%)。尽管2010年是“令人怀疑的一年”，但是高盛经济学家们宣称2011年肯定是经济复苏的一年，努里尔•卢比尼----美国经济学家，这次经济危机的预言者，认为如果一切都顺利，并且没有更糟糕的事情发生，全球经济今年可能会增长将近4%。
It must be said: not everyone agrees. Jim Walker, an economist at research firm Asianomics in Hong Kong, predicts that 2011 will be a "year of reckoning." The rebound in the U.S., Walker says, is a mirage created by excessive stimulus. He expects the U.S. to slip into the double dip it dodged in 2010. Even the less bearish worry that the global economy is far from healed. Most economists expect the rebound to flatten out in 2011, with growth likely to be lower than in 2010. In mid-January, the World Bank estimated global GDP growth will slow to 3.3% in 2011 from 3.9% in 2010. Stephen Roach, an economist at Yale University, believes that the world economy is still digging itself out of the debt and distortions built up during the last boom. "It's a really slow postcrisis workout," Roach says. "I'm not prepared to give the global economy the green light." 有人肯定会说：并不是每个人都同意这个观点。吉姆•沃克----香港亚洲经济分析咨询公司的经济学家，预测2011年将会是“清算之年”。沃克谈到，美国经济的反弹只是由过度刺激形成的海市蜃楼。他认为美国将会落入2010年侥幸躲避过去的“双底衰退”之中。即使是不那么悲观的人也担心全球经济远没有恢复。大多数经济学家预计2011年经济反弹会逐渐消失，经济增长也可能会低于2010年。一月中旬，世界银行估测全球GDP增长将由2010年的3.9%下降到2011年的3.3%。耶鲁大学的经济学家史蒂芬•罗奇认为，世界经济仍会极力从上次经济繁荣期产生的债务和扭曲中脱身。“这真是一次缓慢的后经济危机考验。”罗奇说道，“我并不准备给经济复苏这个观点亮绿灯”。
The caution is understandable. In the developed world, unemployment remains sickeningly high (9.4% in the U.S., 10.1% in the euro zone). The private-sector debt crisis of 2008-09 has morphed into a public-sector debt crisis in 2010-11, a result of the debt and deficits amassed in the process of stimulating economies and bailing out banks during the downturn. 这种谨慎是可以理解的。在发达国家，失业率仍然很高(美国是9.4%，欧元区是10.1%)。2008年9月的私营部门债务危机到2010年11月已经演变为公共部门危机。这是由经济低迷期刺激经济和救助银行时所累积的债务和财政赤字造成的。
Politicians are being forced to scale back spending even though the recovery remains weak. In Britain, deep cuts in the budget mandated by Prime Minister David Cameron will most likely cost hundreds of thousands of public-sector jobs. In the U.S., the miserable condition of state and local governments' budgets is likewise leading to a job-killing retrenchment. Europe's imposition of austerity has led to heightened political conflict. Ballooning debts and feeble growth prospects for the advanced economies are reordering the investor's perception of risk. Noting that the U.S. "has no plan in place to stabilize and ultimately reverse the upward debt trajectory," Moody's in mid-January warned that the country's AAA credit rating could come under pressure if debt continues to mount; a few days later, Moody's upgraded Indonesia's rating. 虽然复苏进程依旧疲缓，政客们仍旧被迫缩减开支。在英国，首相戴维•卡梅伦大幅消减预算很可能会导致几十万人失业。在美国，国家和地方政府糟糕的预算同样也会导致工作岗位的紧缩。欧洲采取的财政紧缩政策也加剧了政治冲突。日渐高磊的债台以及发达经济体的疲软经济增长前景让投资者们开始重新审视风险。注意到美国“对于稳定和最终扭转不断向上的债务曲线是没有任何适合计划的”，穆迪于一月中旬发出警告：如果债务持续攀升，国家AAA级信用评级会面临被降级的危险。几天之后，穆迪更新了印尼的评级。
The emerging economies face risks of their own. The most alarming is a sharp rise in inflation — a result of strong domestic growth, stimulus policies, and commodity prices pumped up globally by returning demand, fears of (or actual) supply constraints and the loose-money policies of the West. In early January, Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency, warned that oil prices, now over $90 a barrel, "are entering a dangerous zone" that could threaten the global recovery. The U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization said its food-price index reached an all-time high in December, surpassing even the nosebleed levels of 2008's surge. Such spiking prices for the basics people need to survive are hard enough to swallow in the developed world. "Just at the point you start to see a recovery coming, you get hit by commodity prices that hit people's incomes," says Stephen King, chief economist at HSBC. In emerging markets, the fallout can be much more severe. High food prices have already contributed to the collapse of the government in Tunisia. 新兴经济体也面临着自己的风险。最紧急的就是通货膨胀急速加剧----这是强劲的国内增长、刺激政策以及全球物价上涨的结果，而全球物价上涨则是由需求重返、实际供应紧张以及西方宽松的货币政策导致的。一月初，国际能源机构首席经济学家法提赫•比罗尔发出警告：现在的石油价格每桶已经超过90美元，世界经济正踏入一个危险的区域，可能会威胁全球经济的复苏。联合国粮农组织表示，食品价格指数在12月份达到新高，甚至超过了2008年那令人乍舌的高度。在发达国家，人们生存必需品价格如此暴涨，令人非常难以接受。“就在你刚刚看到经济复苏的曙光的时候，你立马被冲击人们收入的物价敲了当头一棒，”汇丰银行首席经济学家史蒂芬•金如此说道。在新兴市场，其后果可能会更加严重。高物价也加剧了突尼斯政府的衰败。
Fearing the consequences, policymakers throughout the developing world have switched priorities from holding up growth to fighting inflation. In mid-January, China raised the reserve-requirement ratio — which forces banks to park more money at home for every loan they make — to a record high in an attempt to curtail credit and quell inflation, which rose at the fastest pace in two years in November. In India, raging food prices, galloping ahead by nearly 17% from a year earlier, have become such a sensitive issue that when Pakistan temporarily cut off some exports of onions to the country, it sparked a minor diplomatic row. The same measures used to bust inflation, however, will also dampen growth. The World Bank predicts slowdowns for roaring China (from 10% growth in 2010 to 8.7% in 2011) and India (9.5% to 8.4%). 由于担心造成类似的后果，发展中国家的决策者决定把优先保持经济增长转为优先抵抗通货膨胀。一月中旬，中国将存款准备金率上调至历史新高----强制银行每放一笔贷款就必须在央行存放更多的储备金，以期减少放贷、抑制通货膨胀，通货膨胀在十一月达到两年来新高。在印度，疯狂的物价较去年已飞速增长了近17%，这已经成为了非常敏感的问题。以致于巴基斯坦在临时缩减对印度的洋葱出口时引发了轻微的外交争执。然而，消除通货膨胀的措施也会抑制经济增长。世界银行预测发展迅速的中国和印度的经济增长会放缓，因为中国的经济增长由2010年的10%下降到2011年的8.7%，印度由9.5%下降到8.4%。
Was It for This? 这就是为了未来而进行的所谓的“合作”吗?
Such numbers, of course, are beyond the dreams of workers and consumers in developed economies. Millions from Michigan to Madrid want to work but can't — leading them to put countless small dreams for themselves and their families on hold — so the risk that the shift of economic power will breed populist resentment rises. Many in the developed world are only now becoming aware that the globe's economic future will be determined not just in London or New York City but in Beijing and New Delhi too. "The problem that Western economies have is that they haven't realized the full effect of the rise of the emerging world," says HSBC's King. 当然，这样的数字是发达经济体的工人和消费者做梦都不敢想的。从密歇根到马德里，上百万的人们想要工作但却不能----这使他们将自己和家人的无数小梦想都暂时搁置----因此，由经济实力改变引起的民粹主义不满情绪的风险加大。发达国家的许多人就刚刚才意识到，未来的全球经济不仅仅由伦敦或纽约这样的城市决定，也同样由北京和新德里这样的城市决定。“西方经济体所面临的问题是：他们没有意识到新兴世界兴起的全面影响，”汇丰银行主席如是说。
One suspects they soon will. The summit between U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao in Washington took place in a highly charged atmosphere. China is tired of being lectured to by those who seem unable to manage their own economies particularly well. U.S. politicians, with an ear to their constituents, are lobbying for protective tariffs if China does not allow its currency to appreciate. U.S. businesses, which have in the past been supportive of free trade and engagement with China, are beginning to sing with different voices. Large technology and industrial companies grumble that China's pursuit of "indigenous innovation" through regulatory and procurement policies is freezing them out of potentially lucrative markets. 有人猜测听他们很快就会意识到这个问题。美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马和中国国家主席胡锦涛在华盛顿举行峰会，气氛高度紧张。中国厌倦了被那些连自己的经济都管理不好的国家讨伐。如果中国不允许人民币升值，愿意听从选民意见的美国政客们将会游说保护性关税。而且，那些过去大力支持与中国进行自由贸易和合作的商业家们也开始唱反调。
In the U.S. and Europe, a certain helplessness in the face of huge economic forces is fueling a disaffection — which makes itself felt in different ways in different societies — with the global financial elites and the policymakers who are thought to have connived with them. There was a particularly poignant moment when Ireland, which cherishes its independence like a precious jewel, was forced to go cap in hand to the E.U. for a bailout in November. "Was it for this?" The Irish Times asked in a famous editorial on the humiliation. The question (though few outside Dublin got the reference) was an echo of a line from W.B. Yeats' great poem "September 1913," which excoriated a bourgeois capitalism whose merchants "fumble in a greasy till/ And add the halfpence to the pence/ And prayer to shivering prayer, until/ You have dried the marrow from the bone." 在美国和欧洲，面对巨大经济压力却无能为力的现象正激起着人们对全球的金融精英以及决策者的不满，认为金融精英与决策者们串通一气，这种不满在不同社会表现形式不同。视独立如珍宝的爱尔兰，11月，为了得到救助，不得不求助于欧盟，这令人感到非常心酸。“这就是爱尔兰想要的吗?”爱尔兰时报在关于屈辱的著名社论中问道。这个问题(尽管只有爱尔兰人才能真正明白其中含义)与威廉•巴特勒•叶芝的著名诗作“1913年9月”中的一行诗产生共鸣，它痛斥资产阶级资本主义，因为他们的商人“在满是油污的钱柜里摸索/一点一点地积攒/不停地祷告直到榨干工人们的最后一滴血。”
How can a disaffection with global capitalism in the developed world be prevented from turning into a backlash against it? It would help if there were mechanisms in place to manage the stresses in the international economy. Instead, there is something close to a breakdown in global economic cooperation. The WEF's closely read Global Risks report identifies "global governance failures" as an overarching risk facing the world. "Global governance capacities are highly fragmented," the report argues. "There is a growing sense of paralysis in responding to global challenges." 如何阻止人们对发达国家倡导的全球资本主义的不满演变为强烈抵制?如果有适当的机制来调控国际经济压力可能会起作用。而恰恰相反的是，全球经济合作接近崩溃。全球经济论坛倍受关注的全球风险报告指出当今世界面临的首要风险是“全球治理失败”。报告称，“全球治理能力高度分散，人们应对全球挑战越来越无力。”
In the economic field, that is especially true. The Doha round of trade talks, for example, is like the emperor's new clothes in Hans Christian Andersen's famous tale: everyone knows there's nothing there, but nobody will say so. The spirit of camaraderie forged in the early days of the financial crisis — all the hopeful meetings and optimistic communiqués of the G-20 — has been replaced by every-country-for-itself thinking. As nations scramble to protect their own people from the continued fallout of the Great Recession, the threat of currency and trade wars has become very real. Governments from Tokyo to Santiago have been intervening in currency markets, imposing measures to restrict capital flows and taking other steps to try to prevent rising currencies from denting export competitiveness. "The currency war is a proxy for a jobs war," says Roach. In the mind of every policymaker looms — at least, it should — the disastrous spiral into protectionism that deepened the Depression in the 1930s. 在经济领域，这种问题更加突出。例如，多哈回合贸易谈判就像安徒生著名的童话故事中皇帝的新装一样：每个人都知道谈判不会有什么结果，但是没有人说出来。早期金融危机铸就的互助友爱的精神----20国集团所有的充满希望的会议和振奋人心的公告----都被各国自私利己的想法替代了。由于各国面对日趋严峻的大萧条境况，都急于保护本国人民的利益，因此货币和贸易之战已成为非常现实的威胁。从东京到圣地亚哥的政府一直都在干预货币市场，采取措施限制资本流动，并尽力阻止不断升值的货币削弱出口竞争力。“货币之战其实就是工作岗位之战，”罗奇说道。决策者至少应该想到，这种灾难性的螺旋式保护主义曾加剧了20世纪30年代的大萧条。
Yet the unmediated rift between countries, each desperate to preserve its edge in the global economic game, is not even the most serious division that policymakers have to contend with. That, rather, is what the WEF's Global Risks calls economic disparity. "The benefits of globalization seem unevenly spread," reads the report. "A minority is seen to have harvested a disproportionate amount of the fruits. Issues of economic disparity and equity at both the national and international levels are becoming increasingly important ... Politically, there are signs of resurgent nationalism and populism as well as social fragmentation." 在这场全球经济竞技中，每个国家都誓死保持自己的优势，然而，这种国家间的即刻裂痕并不是决策者们需要应对的最严重分歧。其实，这种裂痕就是世界经济论坛全球风险所说的经济差距。“全球化带来的好处似乎分布不均衡，”报告表明，“小部分地区似乎付出与收获并不成比例。国内和国际水平的经济差距与公平越来越重要.......政治上，有民族主义，民粹主义以及社会分裂抬头的迹象。”
The warning is timely. In the rich world, the gains that the working class made during what the French call the trente glorieuses after 1945 — decent health care, guaranteed pensions — are seen as increasingly fragile. In the developing world, economic success sometimes seems to go hand in hand with growing inequality. 报告为人们及时敲响了警钟。法国人称1945年之后的三十年为“辉煌三十年”，在这三十年里，发达国家的工人们创造了丰厚的收益----全面的医保，有保障的养老金，然而现在这些优越条件都在慢慢瓦解。
None of these divisions — between and within nations — are ones that have to last for ever. But it will take hard work and creativity — both within discrete polities and in international forums — if they are not to cloud what should be the happy prospect of a world in which many, many more people live lives that are fulfilling and comfortable. We can see that meadow at the end of the woods. But we aren't in it yet. 国际和国内的这些分歧，没有一个会永远存在。世界的前景是美好的----越来越多的人们生活得非常充实与舒适，如果不想破坏如此美好的未来，他们就必须在解决国际与国内事务上努力工作，发挥创造力。我们已经可以看到灌木丛深处的草木了，但是我们仍旧未进入到那个世界。
