机器人抢人类饭碗 这一次可能是真的

A machine that administers sedatives recently began treating patients at a Seattle hospital. At a Silicon Valley hotel, a bellhop robot delivers items to people’s rooms. Last spring, a software algorithm wrote a breaking news article about an earthquake that The Los Angeles Times published.

在西雅图的一家医院，一台给病人服用镇定剂的机器不久前开始接待患者。在硅谷的一家酒店，一个机器人侍应生把行李送到客人的房间。今年春天，一个软件算法编写了一条关于地震的突发新闻稿，并发表在了《洛杉矶时报》(The Los Angeles Times)上。

Although fears that technology will displace jobs are at least as old as the Luddites, there are signs that this time may really be different. The technological breakthroughs of recent years – allowing machines to mimic the human mind – are enabling machines to do knowledge jobs and service jobs, in addition to factory and clerical work.

尽管对于科技可能取代就业岗位的担忧，至少和勒徳分子(Luddites)的出现一样久远，但是如今的一些迹象显示，这一次可能真的与以往不同。最近几年的科技突破，使机器逐渐能够模仿人类思维，于是让机器有能力从事知识工作和服务工作，而不只是工厂和事务性的工作。

And over the same 15-year period that digital technology has inserted itself into nearly every aspect of life, the job market has fallen into a long malaise. Even with the economy’s recent improvement, the share of working-age adults who are working is substantially lower than a decade ago – and lower than any point in the 1990s.

正是在这15年间，数字技术几乎进入了生活的方方面面，就业市场也陷入了长期的病态。尽管经济最近有所改善，但是劳动年龄人口中，实际就业的比例远低于10年前，甚至低于上世纪90年代的任何时期。

Economists long argued that, just as buggy-makers gave way to car factories, technology would create as many jobs as it destroyed. Now many are not so sure.

经济学家长期以来一直在说，就像制造马车的工匠要让位于汽车工厂一样，科技创造的工作岗位将和它取代的工作岗位一样多。现在，许多人不那么确定了。

Lawrence H. Summers, the former Treasury secretary, recently said that he no longer believed that automation would always create new jobs. “This isn’t some hypothetical future possibility,” he said. “This is something that’s emerging before us right now.”

美国前财政部长劳伦斯·H·萨默斯(Lawrence H. Summers)最近表示，他不再相信自动化总是能够创造新的工作岗位。“这不是假设出来的未来的某种可能性，”他说，“而是正在我们眼前呈现的现实。”

Erik Brynjolfsson, an economist at M.I.T., said, “This is the biggest challenge of our society for the next decade.”

麻省理工学院(MIT)的经济学家埃里克·布林约尔松(Erik Brynjolfsson)说，“这是我们的社会在未来10年里最大的挑战。”

Mr. Brynjolfsson and other experts believe that society has a chance to meet the challenge in ways that will allow technology to be mostly a positive force. In addition to making some jobs obsolete, new technologies have also long complemented people’s skills and enabled them to be more productive – as the Internet and word processing have for office workers or robotic surgery has for surgeons.

布林约尔松和其他一些专家认为，社会可以通过一些方式，让技术成为一种基本上积极的力量，从而应对上述挑战。虽然淘汰了一些工作岗位，但是新的科技也对人类的技能提供了补充，提高了人们的工作效率——就像互联网和文字处理技术对办公室职员，或者机器手术技术对外科医生所做的那样。

More productive workers, in turn, earn more money and produce goods and services that improve lives. “It is literally the story of the economic development of the world over the last 200 years,” said Marc Andreessen, a venture capitalist and an inventor of the web browser. “Just as most of us today have jobs that weren’t even invented 100 years ago, the same will be true 100 years from now.”

反过来，工作效率得到提升的劳动者可以赚更多钱，生产出可以改善生活的商品和服务。“这实际上就是过去200年里，世界经济发展的历程，”网络浏览器的发明人、风险投资人马克·安德雷森(Marc Andreessen)说，“就像今天我们大多数人都从事着100年前不存在的工作一样，100年后也会是如此。”

Yet there is deep uncertainty about how the pattern will play out now, as two trends are interacting. Artificial intelligence has become vastly more sophisticated in a short time, with machines now able to learn, not just follow programmed instructions, and to respond to human language and movement.

然而，由于两种趋势的相互影响，未来将如何发展还有很大的不确定性。人工智能在很短时间内变得复杂得多，机器现在能够学习新知识，而不只是完成程序中的指令，还能对人类的语言和动作做出反应。

At the same time, the American work force has gained skills at a slower rate than in the past – and at a slower rate than in many other countries. Americans between the ages of 55 and 64 are among the most skilled in the world, according to a recent report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Younger Americans are closer to average among the residents of rich countries, and below average by some measures.

与此同时，美国劳动者习得新技能的速度却不如以往，而且低于许多其他国家。经济合作与发展组织(Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development)最近的一份报告显示，55到64岁的美国人是世界上技能最强的劳动者。而年龄更小的美国人，则更接近富裕国家居民的平均水平，某些指标甚至低于平均水平。

Clearly, many workers feel threatened by technology. In a recent New York Times/CBS News/Kaiser Family Foundation poll of Americans between the ages of 25 and 54 who were not working, 37 percent of those who said they wanted a job said technology was a reason they did not have one. Even more – 46 percent – cited “lack of education or skills necessary for the jobs available.”

显然，许多工人感到了科技的威胁。在《纽约时报》、CBS新闻频道(CBS News)和凯泽家族基金会(Kaiser Family Foundation)最近对25岁到54岁年龄段的无业美国人进行的调查中，有求职意愿的受访者里有37%说，科技是他们找不到工作的原因之一。更多人(46%)则表示，原因在于“缺乏空缺岗位所需的教育背景或职业技能”。

Self-driving vehicles are an example of the crosscurrents. They could put truck and taxi drivers out of work – or they could enable drivers to be more productive during the time they used to spend driving, which could earn them more money. But for the happier outcome to happen, the drivers would need the skills to do new types of jobs.

自动驾驶汽车的例子就突显了这两种趋势的矛盾。它们可能导致卡车和出租车司机失业——或者，它们可能会使司机在本来需要开车的时间里更有效率，赚更多的钱。但要想实现较好的这个结果，司机就需要具备从事新型工作的技能。

The challenge is evident for white-collar jobs, too. Ad sales agents and pilots are two jobs that the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects will decline in number over the next decade. Flying a plane is largely automated today and will become more so. And at Google, the biggest seller of online ads, software does much of the selling and placing of search ads, meaning there is much less need for salespeople.

白领工作面临的挑战也同样明显。美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)预计，广告销售人员和飞行员的工作机会未来10年将会减少。如今，驾驶飞机基本上已经实现自动化，未来更是如此。在最大的在线广告销售商谷歌公司(Google)，销售和投放搜索广告的工作，有很大一部分是由软件完成的，这意味着对销售人员的需求会大大减少。

There are certain human skills machines will probably never replicate, like common sense, adaptability and creativity, said David Autor, an economist at M.I.T. Even jobs that become automated often require human involvement, like doctors on standby to assist the automated anesthesiologist, called Sedasys.

人类的某些技能机器或许永远无法复制，比如常识、适应性和创造力，MIT的经济学家戴维·奥特(David Autor)说。即使是实现了自动化的工作岗位，常常也需要人工的参与，比如，自动化麻醉设备Sedasys旁边，就需要有医生值守协助操作。

Elsewhere, though, machines are replacing certain jobs. Telemarketers are among those most at risk, according to a recent study by Oxford University professors. They identified recreational therapists as the least endangered – and yet that judgment may prove premature. Already, Microsoft’s Kinect can recognize a person’s movements and correct them while doing exercise or physical therapy.

不过，在其他领域，机器正在取代某些工作岗位。牛津大学(Oxford University)几名教授最近的一项研究显示，被取代的风险最高的一些职业中就包括电话推销员。他们认为休闲理疗师是最安全的工作岗位，不过这个结论可能下得为时过早。微软(Microsoft)的Kinect已经能够识别人在进行体育锻炼或理疗时的动作，并给予纠正了。

Other fields could follow. The inventors of facial recognition software from a University of California, San Diego, lab say it can estimate pain levels from children’s expressions and screen people for depression. Machines are even learning to taste: The Thai government in September introduced a robot that determines whether Thai food tastes sufficiently authentic or whether it needs another squirt of fish sauce.

其他领域可能也会出现同样的情况。加州大学圣迭戈分校(University of California, San Diego)一个实验室的面部识别软件的发明者说，该软件可以评估儿童表情的痛苦程度，也可以筛查人是否抑郁。机器甚至还在学习品尝味道：9月份，泰国政府引进了一台机器人，它能判断一道泰国菜够不够正宗，或者是否需要再加点鱼露。

Watson, the computer system built by IBM that beat humans at Jeopardy in 2011, has since learned to do other human tasks. This year, it began advising military veterans on complex life decisions like where to live and which insurance to buy. Watson culls through documents for scientists and lawyers and creates new recipes for chefs. Now IBM is trying to teach Watson emotional intelligence.

2011年，IBM打造的计算机系统沃森(Watson)在《危险边缘》(Jeopardy)里打败了人类，之后它又学会了其他人类的工作。今年，它开始针对一些复杂的人生抉择，为退伍老兵提供建议，比如在哪里生活，买什么保险。沃森还能为科学家和律师筛选文件，为厨师发明新菜谱。现在，IBM正在努力让沃森获得情商。

Perhaps the most worrisome development is how poorly the job market is already functioning for many workers. More than 16 percent of men between the ages of 25 and 54 are not working, up from 5 percent in the late 1960s; 30 percent of women in this age group are not working, up from 25 percent in the late 1990s. For those who are working, wage growth has been weak, while corporate profits have surged.

也许最令人忧虑的情况是，对于许多劳动者来说，就业市场的状况已经十分糟糕。在25岁到54岁年龄段的男性中，超过16%的人没有工作，而上世纪60年代末，这个比例是5%；这个年龄段的女性30%没有工作，高于上世纪90年代末期的25%。对于有工作的人，薪资增长一直乏力，而与此同时，企业利润却大幅增长。

“We’re going to enter a world in which there’s more wealth and less need to work,” Mr. Brynjolfsson said. “That should be good news. But if we just put it on autopilot, there’s no guarantee this will work out.”

“我们将迎来一个财富更多、工作需求更少的世界，”布林约尔松说。“这应该是个好消息。但如果我们任其自由发展，不能保证所有问题都会迎刃而解。”

Some say the nature of work will need to change. Google’s co-founder, Larry Page, recently suggested a four-day workweek, so as technology displaces jobs, more people can find employment. Others believe the role of the public sector should expand, to help those struggling to find work. Many point to education, in new technologies and in the skills that remain uniquely human, like creativity and judgment.

有人说，工作的本质需要改变。谷歌的联合创始人拉里·佩奇(Larry Page)最近建议每周工作四天，这样一来，在技术取代工作岗位的同时，更多人仍然可以找到工作。还有一些人认为，公共部门应该发挥更大的作用，来帮助那些难以找到工作的人。许多人说，应该加强涉及新技术以及人类独有技能的教育，比如创造力和判断力。

“The answer is surely not to try to stop technical change,” Mr. Summers said, “but the answer is not to just suppose that everything’s going to be O.K. because the magic of the market will assure that’s true.”

“解决办法当然不是试图阻止科技的变革，”萨默斯说，“但答案也不是想当然地认为，因为有市场的魔力，所以一切问题都会自然而然地迎刃而解。”