商场:不要重复年犯的错误

Investors once again are plowing money into stock mutual funds. Are they setting themselves up to get burned like it's 2008 all over again?

投资者们正在又一次大举投入股票型共同基金。他们会像2008年那样，再次引火烧身吗？

Some $65.4 billion flowed into equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds in January, the largest monthly net influx ever, according to Morningstar Inc.

晨星公司(Morningstar Inc.)称，1月份，大约有654亿美元的资金流入股票共同基金和交易所交易基金。这是有史以来单月净流入量最大的一个月。

That doesn't mean investors are abandoning bonds─$39.2 billion went into bond funds and ETFs that same month.

这并非指投资者正抛弃债券──在同一个月里，有392亿美元的资金进入了债券式基金和交易所交易基金。

But more people appear to be warming up to stocks, in many cases likely by diverting money they had been sending to money-market funds and bank savings accounts.

但似乎有更多人准备开始投资股票了。很多情况下，他们可能会将过去投入货币市场基金和储蓄账户的钱转投股票。

Certainly, there are reasons to make the move. Opportunities for yield elsewhere are slim. Equity valuations are still considered attractive by many analysts, though prices aren't as low as they were a few years ago.

当然，他们有转移资金的理由。其它领域能够产生收益的机会很小，很多分析人士认为股票目前的估值仍具备吸引力，尽管股价已高于几年前的水平了。

It's also important to note that one month's data doesn't a trend make.

同样值得注意的是，一个月的数据并不足以构成一种趋势。

January is often a big month for stock-fund inflows, in part due to lump-sum retirement-plan contributions, says David Blanchett, head of retirement research at Morningstar Investment Management, an advisory unit of Morningstar Inc. And, he adds, many investors are still gun-shy from the severe market drop in 2007-09. 'A lot of people didn't do a very good job trying to time it,' he says.

戴维??布兰切特(David Blanchett)是晨星公司下属咨询企业晨星投资管理公司(Morningstar Investment Management)研究退休业务的主管。他说，1月经常都是资金大量流入股票基金的月份，部分原因是来自退休计划的一次性缴款。他还补充说，很多投资者对2007-2009年间市场的剧烈下跌仍心有余悸。“许多人没能很好地判断投资时机”,他说。

Whether the move into stocks is a one-month anomaly or a long-term trend, now is a good time to reflect on some of the mistakes investors made before and during the big downturn of a few years ago─and how to avoid those errors going forward.

不管入市的举动是单月的异常现象还是一个长期趋势，当前都是投资者们用来反省他们在几年前的经济衰退前或衰退中所犯错误的大好时机──以及如何避免这些错误的再次发生。

Falling for the Hype

轻信炒作

The market could be on a long-term bull run─or it could be on the verge of a sharp fall. Nobody knows. And that's the point. So it's best not to let the excitement of rising share prices distract you from a reasoned, long-term investment plan.

市场可能处于长期的牛市，也可能处在暴跌的边缘。没有人确切知道，这才是关键。因此最好不要让股价上涨带来的兴奋，妨碍你执行合理的长期投资计划。

'From our perspective, to make a long-term purchase decision for stocks in a properly balanced account right now makes sense,' says Jason Pride, director of investment strategy at Glenmede, a wealth-management firm based in Philadelphia. But if you're jumping in now because 'you're seeing a surge in stocks and you're chasing that return, hoping you don't miss out on the next couple of months, be wary of that behavioral bias that [often emerges] after a run of the magnitude we've seen,' he says.

费城一家名为Glenmede的财富管理公司的投资策略主管贾森??普赖德(Jason Pride)说：“在我们看来，一个平衡的投资组合现在出于长期投资的考量而决定买入股票是合理的。”但他说，如果你现在匆忙入市是因为你看到股市大涨，从而想要追逐收益，不希望自己在未来几个月里错失良机，那么你要小心在遇到大涨之后出现行为偏差，这种情况在出现当前程度的涨幅后经常会发生。

Others put it more bluntly.

其他人把话说得更直白。

'If you can't focus on the long term, you don't belong in the stock market,' says Carl Hess, global head of investment at consulting firm Towers Watson, in New York.

纽约韬睿惠悦咨询公司(Towers Watson)的全球投资主管卡尔??赫斯(Carl Hess)说：“如果你不能着眼于长期，你根本不适合进入股票市场。”

Failure to Diversify

未能分散投资

The 2007-09 bear market amply demonstrated that adequate diversification isn't easy.

2007-2009年的熊市充分说明，要实现适当的分散投资并不容易。

'Over the last few decades, it's been increasingly hard to get diversification within equity markets,' Mr. Hess says. 'They increasingly tend to all behave more like each other.'

“在过去的几十年里，股票市场里的分散投资越来越难，”赫斯说，“它们的表现越发趋同。”

Mr. Hess suggests looking beyond stocks and bonds for portfolio balance, to alternative investments. 'You might want to think about commercial real estate, things like timber, currency, commodities,' he says.

为了平衡投资组合，赫斯建议考虑股票和债券之外的其它投资。“你也许可以考虑一下商业地产以及木材、外汇、大宗商品等选项，”他说。

He advocates a passive approach, rather than an active one that tries to beat market indexes. That means buying mutual funds 'that are managed as close to passively as possible, both to minimize fees and to reduce reliance on one particular investment manager,' he says.

他主张被动投资，而不是采取主动的方式来试图跑赢市场。他说，这意味着投资“管理风格尽可能被动的”共同基金，从而将费用降到最低程度并减少对某个投资经理的依赖。

Mr. Pride says one strategy he employs is to invest in selected hedge funds that aren't correlated with the broad markets. Some funds also try to deliver uncorrelated performance.

普赖德说，他使用的一个策略是投资那些精选出来的、与整体市场关联性较低的对冲基金。一些基金也会尽量争取让自己的表现不与大盘产生关联性。

Whatever your path, proceed carefully. Some 325 mutual funds employ an alternative investment approach, up from 165 such funds in 2008, according to Morningstar. Many of those funds are new since the market bottomed─and that means they're untested.

不管你选择何种方式，都要小心行事。据晨星公司透露，大约有325支共同基金使用了另类投资方式，而2008年这类基金只有165支。这些基金中有很多家都是在股市探底之后新推出的──这意味着它们还未经受过检验。

'You may be increasing your risk,' says Laura Thurow, director of private wealth management research at Robert W. Baird & Co., in Milwaukee. Know what you own, she says. Study the prospectus or talk to a financial adviser. 'There is a lot more analysis that needs to be done in areas that are new.'

美国密尔沃基市Robert W. Baird & Co.的私人财富管理研究主管劳拉??瑟罗(Laura Thurow)说，你也许正在增加自己的风险。她说，要了解你持有的东西。要好好研究招股书，或者跟财务咨询师谈谈。在新领域里，有多得多的东西需要研究分析。

Buying Based on Past Performance

根据以往表现购买

Investors tend to focus on the rearview mirror when looking at stocks or other assets. Look at current valuations instead.

投资者在观察股票或其它资产时往往把目光集中在它们的历史表现上，但其实更应被关注的是当前的估值。

Ask: 'What are they priced at now, and can that possibly get me the same return going forward?' says Mr. Hess.

赫斯说，要问问你自己，它们现在的股价是多少，这样的股价还有没有可能让我在未来获得相同的回报？

For example, if the stock market has gone from 10 times earnings to 20 times, getting the same return going forward means prices climbing to 40 times earnings. 'That might be a bit of a stretch,' he says.

例如，如果股市的市盈率已经从10倍上升到了20倍，那在未来要获得相同的回报就意味着股票的市盈率需攀升到40倍。赫斯说，那可不太实际。

Investing Without a Plan

无计划盲目投资

Are you out to beat the market? Sounds good, until you realize that if the market drops 50% and you're down 40%, you've met your goal, says Paul Merriman, president of the Merriman Financial Education Foundation and a longtime financial adviser.

梅里曼金融教育基金会(Merriman Financial Education Foundation)主席、长期担任金融顾问的保罗??梅里曼(Paul Merriman)说，你想要跑赢市场？这听起来很好，直到你意识到，如果市场下跌了50%，而你的股票下跌了40%，你其实已经达到目标了。

Investors should decide whether they want to beat the market, get the highest return within their risk tolerance─a good strategy for young to middle-aged people─or get the needed return at the lowest risk, a goal more suited to those in or near retirement, Mr. Merriman says. 'Most people do not have their portfolio matched to what their primary goal is,' he says.

梅里曼指出，投资者应该决定他们是想要跑赢市场、在自己的风险承受能力范围内获取最高回报，还是要以最低的风险去获取所需的回报。前者适合年轻人和中年人，后者更适合那些已经退休或者即将退休的人。他说，大多数人的投资组合与他们的首要目标不匹配。

When you know your plan, which should include a target allocation among stocks, bonds and other assets, stick to it. 'Practice policy fidelity,' says Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Philadelphia-based financial-services firm Janney Montgomery Scott LLC. 'Don't let the emotions─what's being touted about the market or 'We're 180 points from all-time highs!'─trap you into doing something that is incongruent with your personal risk budget.'

在你确定了自己的计划后（计划应该明确在股票、债券和其它资产中如何进行资产配置），应该按计划操作。总部位于费城的金融服务公司Janney Montgomery Scott LLC的首席投资策略师马克口拉什奇尼(Mark Luschini)说，坚持原则的一贯性，不要让情绪──鼓吹市场的话或者类似于“我们距离历史最高点只有180点了”这样的话──诱惑你做出与你的个人风险预算不协调的事情。

Failure to Know Your Limits

不知道自己的底线

Going into the downturn, many investors were complacent about risk. From 2003 through 2007, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index almost doubled, without a lot of volatility, notes Ms. Thurow.

瑟罗提示说，当进入低迷期时，很多投资者对于风险的估计是盲目乐观的。从2003年到2007年底，标准普尔500指数几乎翻了一番，且没有太多的波动。

'People got comfortable,' she says. Some had too much of their money in equities because of an unrealistic idea of their risk tolerance. These days, investors may be reaching for risk out of desperation, driven by low interest rates rather than complacency.

她说，人们感觉很好。有些人把太多的钱投入股票，是因为他们对自己的风险承受力有不切实际的认识。目前，投资者可能不是因为盲目乐观，而是因为低利率才不顾一切地追逐风险。

Either way, you may end up taking a bigger hit than you can afford. Take the time to understand what you're willing to put on the line.

不管出于哪种情况，最终你都有可能遭受自己根本承受不起的打击。一定要先花时间想清楚，你愿意承担什么样的风险。