厄尔尼诺肆虐 将成史上最热年

Just one year after 2014 set a record as the hottest year in the historical record, 2015 is on track to beat it by a substantial margin, possibly signaling a return to a sustained period of rapid global warming.

2014年是有历史记录以来最热的年份，仅仅一年后，2015年就显示了大举刷新记录的趋势，这可能预示着我们将回归到全球气温持续急速上升的阶段。

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the American agency that tracks worldwide temperatures, announced Wednesday that last month had been the hottest September on record, and that the January-to-September period had also been the hottest since 1880. Scientists say it is now all but certain that the full year will be the hottest on record, too.

美国国家海洋与大气管理局(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)对全球气温进行了追踪，该机构本周三宣布，自1880年有记录以来，上个月是最热的9月，今年1月到9月也比所有往年同期更热，科学家说，现在几乎可以肯定，今年全年将创下最热的新纪录。

That means that delegates to a global climate conference scheduled for Paris in early December will almost certainly be convening at a time when climate-related disasters are unfolding around the world, putting them under greater pressure to reach an ambitious deal to limit future emissions and slow the temperature increase.

这意味着，全球气候会议今年12月初在巴黎召开期间，与气候有关的灾害几乎肯定正在世界各地徐徐展开，这将让代表们面临更大的压力，要达成一项雄心勃勃的协议，以限制未来的温室气体排放，减缓温度上升的速度。

The immediate cause of the record-breaking warmth is a strong El weather pattern, in which the ocean releases immense amounts of heat into the atmosphere. But temperatures this year are running far ahead of those during the last strong El , in 1997 and 1998, and scientists said the record heat would not have occurred without an underlying trend of warming caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases.

气温上升破纪录的直接原因，是出现了强烈的厄尔尼诺气候特征，海洋把大量热量释放到大气中。上一次强烈的厄尔尼诺现象出现在1997年和1998年，但今年的气温远高于那次，科学家表示，如果没有人类排放温室气体造成的变暖趋势，这种创纪录的高温原本不会出现。

“We have no reason at this point to think that El itself is responding to the forcing from greenhouse gases,” said Richard Seager, a climate scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University. “You can think of them as independent and adding to each other.”

“目前我们没有理由认为，厄尔尼诺现象本身是在对温室气体的排放做出反应，”哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)拉蒙特-多尔蒂地球观测中心(Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory)的气候专家理查德·西格(Richard Seager)说。“你可以把它们看作两个独立因素，互相叠加。”

The El phenomenon and the accompanying heat are already roiling weather patterns worldwide, likely contributing to dry weather and forest fires in Indonesia, to an incipient drought in Australia, and to a developing food emergency across parts of Africa, including a severe drought in Ethiopia. Those effects are likely to intensify in coming months.

厄尔尼诺现象及其带来的热度，已经对世界各地的天气规律产生了影响，比如印尼出现干旱，发生了森林火灾，澳大利亚进入早期干旱阶段，在非洲的部分地区，食品紧张状况正在恶化，埃塞俄比亚发生了严重旱灾。这些问题可能会在未来几个月内加剧。

Past patterns suggest that El will send unusual amounts of rain and snow to the American Southwest and to California, offering some relief for that parched state but also precipitating floods and mudslides. The California effects are likely to be strongest in the latter part of the winter, experts said.

过去的规律表明，厄尔尼诺现象将给美国西南部和加州带来不同寻常的大量雨雪，在一定程度上缓解该州的炎热状况，但也会引发洪水和泥石流。专家说，加州在冬末期间受到的影响可能会最大。

Earlier this year, the global warmth contributed to a spring heat wave in India and Pakistan that killed many people, possibly several thousand, with temperatures hitting 118 degrees Fahrenheit in parts of India. The effects on the natural world have been severe as well, with extreme ocean temperatures bleaching coral reefs around the world, and many of them likely to suffer lasting damage.

今年早些时候，在全球气温上升的影响下，印度和巴基斯坦遭受热浪袭击，丧生人数可能高达几千，在印度部分地区，气温创下118华氏度（约48摄氏度）的记录。自然界遭受的影响也同样严重，极端海洋温度令世界各地的珊瑚礁发生白化现象，其中很多可能受到了持久性的损害。

Forecasters have been issuing warnings about a strong El for many months. The coming few months will test whether governments, and the global relief agencies that support poor countries, have prepared, particularly to provide food relief for hard-hit regions.

天气预测者数月来一直发布警告称，将会出现强烈的厄尔尼诺现象。未来几个月将会是一段考验期，考验政府及支持贫穷国家的全球救援机构是否已经做好准备，特别是为受灾严重的地方提供粮食救济。

“The warning is out,” Dr. Seager said. “The world has had time to plan for this.”

“已经发出了警告，”西格博士说。“全球有时间做计划。”

Though worldwide in scope, El originates in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, when normal weather patterns shift in a way that allows the ocean to release large amounts of stored-up heat into the atmosphere. That perturbs atmospheric waves that can travel thousands of miles, redistributing heat and moisture around the globe.

尽管范围涉及全球，厄尔尼诺现象始于热带东太平洋，正常的天气规律发生转变，使得海洋向空气中释放大量储存热量。这扰乱了能够传播数千英里的大气波动，在全球重新分配热量和水分。

The effects can be profound, with some research even suggesting that civil wars become more likely in tropical countries when they are under stress from an El .

影响可能非常深远，一些研究甚至指出，热带国家受到厄尔尼诺现象带来的压力时，更可能爆发内战。

The World Food Program, a United Nations relief agency, is already preparing for larger operations across Africa, and appealing for donations. Harvests are down across large swaths of that huge continent, and the number of people going hungry in Ethiopia is likely to be in the millions in coming months, relief groups have estimated.

联合国救援机构世界粮食计划署(World Food Program)已经准备在非洲开展更大规模的行动，并呼吁大家捐款。据救援组织估计，非洲大陆大部分区域的收成有所下降，未来几个月，埃塞尔比亚的饥饿人口可能达到数百万。