巴菲特迄今最成功的六笔投资
These days, the thing to say if you want to sound smart about Warren Buffett is that the Oracle of Omaha’s crystal ball has cracked. In mid-October, headlines blared that Buffett had lost $2 Billion in just two days on Coke and IBM IBM 0.03% rmind that Buffett has said those investements are long-term holdings, that he hasn’t sold a share of either company’s stock, and that he would prefer it if IBM’s shares stayed cheap, for now. It seemed to reinforce the notion that the world’s great stock picker had lost it.
最近在谈论巴菲特时，如果你想一鸣惊人，那就说“奥马哈先知的水晶球失灵”好了。10月中旬，巴菲特在短短两天内就在可口可乐公司（Coke）和IBM身上损失了20亿美元，这一消息一度抢占了各大媒体的头条。而巴菲特已经表态，对这两家公司的股权投资是长期的而且他丝毫没有减持。他甚至还表示，希望IBM的股价短期内仍保持这么廉价。这一切似乎让人更加确信这位世界上最伟大的选股大师已经丧失灵敏了。
Last year, the book value of Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway badly trailed the S&P 500, increasing less than the broad market index over the past five years for the first time in history. Buffett has acknowledged that his hand picked successors Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, have done better in recent years than he has. (Combs’ and Weschler’s market beating performance was the subject of a recent Fortune story.) Earlier this year, The New York Times highlighted a recent study that found Buffett’s ability to do better than the market has mostly disappeared.
去年，巴菲特执掌的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（Berkshire Hathaway）账面价值升幅严重落后于标准普尔500指数，史上第一次出现五年涨幅落后于该大市指数的情况。巴菲特承认，最近几年他的表现不如自己亲自挑选的继任者托德•库姆斯和泰德•威施勒。【《财富》（Fortune）杂志最近一篇文章的主题正是库姆斯和威施勒获得强于大市的表现。】今年早些时候，《纽约时报》（The New York Times）援引最近的一项研究报道称，巴菲特跑赢大市的能力已基本消失。
And yet, some of Buffett’s best investments of his entire career have been ones he has made in the past few years. What’s more, if Buffett has lost it, someone forgot to tell the market. Share of Berkshire BRK.A 0.46% are way up, have more than doubled in the past five years. That’s generally a reflection of how well investors think Berkshire’s stock market portfolio, still over 85% managed by Buffett and his long-time partner Charlie Munger, as well as the businesses they have bought over the years—including railroad company Burlington Northern, See’s Candies, and dozens of others—are doing. If Buffett has hit a lull, that’s only because the comparison he has built up for himself over the years is tough to top.
但是，巴菲特整个职业生涯中最成功的几笔投资都是他在过去几年中发起的。此外，如果有人说巴菲特不再灵光，那么他肯定忘了一件事。伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股价是一路上涨的，过去五年来涨幅超过一倍。这在总体上反映了投资者有多看好伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股票投资组合（仍有超过85%的股票投资组合由巴菲特和他的长期合作伙伴查理•芒格管理）以及该公司多年来所收购的数十家公司【其中包括铁路公司伯灵顿北方公司（Burlington Northern）、时思糖果公司（See’s Candies）】。如果硬要说巴菲特遇到了瓶颈，那只是因为他多年来的辉煌战绩确实很难突破了。
Here are Buffett’s greatest investments of all time, ranked by annual average rate of return. It’s a testament to how successful Buffett has been. Even some of Buffett’s best-known investment successes, like Coke KO 1.16% , Capital Cities/ABC, Gillette, and auto insurance company Geico, were not good enough to make the list. Here are the ones that did:
以下是巴菲特史上最成功的几笔投资，以年度回报率排名。这些交易是巴菲特璀璨投资生涯的最好证明。虽然巴菲特对可口可乐公司、Capital Cities/ABC公司、吉列公司（Gillette）以及汽车保险商Geico等公司的成功投资被业内广为传颂，但它们都没有好到能登上本榜单的份上。以下是上榜投资案例：
1. PetroChina
1. 中石油（PetroChina）
Annual average compounded return: 52%
年平均复合回报率：52％
Total return: 720%
总回报率：720％
Years held: 5
持有期：5年
Buffett is known for his "buy what you know" investment mantra, and his consistent praise for America. In last year's annual letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett wrote, "America's best days lie ahead." Nonetheless, some of his greatest investments, particularly his recent ones, have been in China. In 2002 and 2003, Berkshire bought 1.3% of China's dominant oil company PetroChinaPTR 1.44% for $488 million. Some questioned the investment. PetroChina's oil fields looked tapped out, and the company, with 400,000 employees, was loaded down with costs. At the time, PetroChina had a market cap of $37 billion. Buffett suspected it was worth $100 billion. Buffett was low. Rising oil prices and new discoveries caused PetroChina's shares to soar. By the time Berkshire sold in 2007, PetroChina's market cap had reached $275 billion, and Berkshire reaped a $3.6 billion gain.
谈到巴菲特，人们总会想到他的投资箴言——“买你看得懂的公司”。此外，大家都知道他一直唱多美国。在去年致伯克希尔哈撒韦公司股东的公开信中，巴菲特写道：“美国最好的日子还在后面。”但是，他的一些最成功的投资，尤其是最近的成功投资都在中国。在2002年和2003年，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司累计斥资4.88亿美元买入中石油1.3％的股权。有人曾一度质疑这一投资，因为中石油的油田开发已是强弩之末，而且它拥有40万名员工，成本高居不下。当时，中石油市值有370亿美元。而巴菲特估计其价值1000亿美元。巴菲特的这一估值实际上算是偏低了。由于油价上涨和新油田的发现，中国石油股价大幅上扬。到伯克希尔哈撒韦公司在2007年出售这部分股权时，中国石油的市值已高达2750亿美元，这让伯克希尔撒韦公司大赚36亿美元。
2. BYD
2. 比亚迪（BYD）
Annual average compounded return: 41%
年平均复合回报率：41％
Total Return: 671%
总回报率：671％
Years held: 6
持有期：6年
One of Buffett's best recent investments came as a suggestion from his long-time lieutenant Charlie Munger. In 2008, Munger sold Buffett on Chinese car battery company BYD by saying that its CEO, Wang Chuan-Fu, was quite obviously a descendant of both Thomas Edison and Jack Welch. He solves problems like Edison and gets things done like Welch, Munger said. "I've never seen anything like it in my life."
巴菲特近几年最成功的一笔投资是长期追随他的副手查理•芒格提议的。2008年，芒格向巴菲特推荐了中国汽车动力电池制造商比亚迪。他说，比亚迪的CEO王传福是托马斯•爱迪生和杰克•韦尔奇（译注：前通用电气公司CEO）的化身，解决技术问题时像爱迪生，行事风格则像韦尔奇。芒格说：“我以前从未见到过这样的人才。”
In late 2008, Berkshire bought 10% of BYD for $230 million. Munger has since said that he thinks the adoption of electric cars will take longer than many think, but he said he has plenty of faith in Chuan-Fu, and he and Buffett have been rewarded for that. Six years later, that 10% stake in BYD, which Berkshire still holds, is now worth nearly $1.8 billion.
2008年末，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司以2.3亿美元收购了比亚迪10％的股权。芒格后来说，他认为电动汽车的普及所需要的时间比许多人认为得要长，但他表示对王传福有充分的信心。而他和巴菲特的这份信任也获得了回报。六年后，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司至今仍持有比亚迪10％的股份，现在价值近18亿美元。
3. Freddie Mac
3.房地美（Freddie Mac）
Annual average compounded return: 24%
年平均复合回报率：24%
Total return: 1,525%
总回报率：1525%
Years held: 13
持有期：13年
Buffett had plenty of conviction when, in 1988, he invested $108 million in Freddie Mac, the giant government-backed mortgage insurance firm, at a split-adjusted $4 a share. Shortly after making the investment, he talked it up in the pages of Fortune magazine. Ten years later, Freddie Mac's shares traded at $70. But perhaps the most notable thing about Buffett's investment in Freddie is not how well it did, but when he sold. In 2000, Buffett testified that he had a series of meetings with Freddie Mac's CEO at the time, Leland Brendsel, in which it was clear to Buffett that Brendsel was unwisely striving for double-digit returns.
1988年，他以分拆调整后每股4美元的价格向政府支持的抵押贷款保险巨头房地美投资了1.08亿美元。当时巴菲特对这家公司有足够的信心。在投资房地美后不久，他在接受《财富》杂志采访时唱好这只股票。十年后，房地美股价升至70美元。但巴菲特在房地美的投资最引人注目的也许不是它当时的市场表现有多好，而是他选择出售这部分股权的时机。2000年，巴菲特作证称，他此前与房地美当时的CEO勒兰德•布兰德塞尔多次会面，期间意识到布兰德塞尔在争取两位数的回报，这是不明智的。
That spelled trouble to Buffett and, within a year, Berkshire had dumped its entire stake in the company. In 2003, news came out that Freddie Mac had regularly misreported its earnings. Brendsel was forced out. In 2008, at the start of the financial crisis, Freddie Mac, along with its sister company Fannie Mae, was on the hook for piles and piles of unwise mortgage loans, and had to be bailed out by the government. Shares of Freddie Mac FMCC 1.98% now trade at just over $2.
巴菲特感觉到事情不妙，一年之内，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司抛售了所持房地美的所有股份。2003年，有消息称，房地美经常谎报其盈利。布兰德塞尔被迫离开。2008年，在全球金融危机伊始之际，房地美及其姊妹公司房利美（Fannie Mae）因为持有大量问题抵押贷款而濒临破产，不得不申请政府救助。房地美目前股价略高于2美元。
4. Berkshire Hathaway
4. 伯克希尔哈撒韦公司
Annual average compounded return: 22%
年平均复合回报率：22%
Total return: 1,745,300%
总回报率：1745300%
Years held: 49
持有期：49年
When Buffett bought Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A 0.46% in 1965 for for about $12 a share, it was a textile company and one of the largest employers in New Bedford, Mass. It quickly became Buffett's acquisition vehicle.
1965年，当巴菲特以每股约12美元的价格收购伯克希尔哈撒韦公司时，它是一家纺织企业，也是马萨诸塞州新贝德福德最大的雇主之一。但它很快就成为巴菲特旗下的收购工具。
He first bought up insurance companies and then a whole host of other kinds of companies, including retailer Nebraska Furniture Mart, See's Candies, catalog company Oriental Trading, ice cream scooper Dairy Queen, underwear maker Fruit of the Loom, railroad firm Burlington Northern, and, most recently in partnership with Brazilian investment firm 3G, ketchup maker Heinz.
通过伯克希尔哈撒韦公司，巴菲特先收购了一些保险公司，然后是其他各行各业的公司，包括零售商内布拉斯加家具商场（Nebraska Furniture Mart）、时思糖果、商品目录公司东方贸易（Oriental Trading）、冰淇淋品牌Dairy Queen、内衣制造商Fruit of the Loom、铁路公司伯灵顿北方等等。最近伯克希尔哈撒韦公司与巴西投资公司3G联合收购了番茄酱生产商亨氏食品公司（Heinz）。
Buffett shuttered the textile business in 1985, and he moved the company's headquarters to his hometown, Omaha, long before then. The true success of Berkshire is the combination of the cash generated by its insurance business and Buffett's ability to invest that cash far better than anyone else on the planet. But Buffett has also proven good at picking managers and having a light touch. Only when companies prove to be a problem, like paint company Benjamin Moore, has Buffett swooped in. Buffett's conglomerate now ranks fourth on the Fortune 500 and now has a stock price of $210,000.
1985年，巴菲特关闭了伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的纺织业务，而之前他早就把公司总部搬到了家乡奥马哈。伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的真正成功之处在于旗下保险业务产生的现金流与巴菲特超乎常人的投资能力得到了结合。但巴菲特也向世人证明，他有识别管理人才的慧眼，而且奉行无为而治。只有当企业的确出现问题时，如涂料公司本杰明摩尔（Benjamin Moore）那样的状况，巴菲特才会大力介入。伯克希尔哈撒韦公司目前在《财富》500强企业中排名第四，股价为21万美元。
5. Wells Fargo
5.富国银行（Wells Fargo）
Annual average compounded return: 21%
年平均复合回报率：21%
Total return: 9,417%
总回报率：9417%
Years held: 24
持有期：24年
Buffett first announced his $290 million investment in Wells Fargo WFC 1.20% in his 1990 annual letter to shareholders. Bank stocks were being battered by the savings and loan crisis, and Buffett characteristically took advantage of the market turmoil to buy into one of the highest quality banks he could find.
巴菲特是在1990年致股东的公开信中首次披露他在富国银行（Wells Fargo）的2.9亿美元投资。当时银行股受储蓄和贷款危机冲击，巴菲特亮出他招牌式的投资策略，利用市场动荡的机会买进了当时他能发现的最优质银行股之一。巴菲特说，他自己有个规矩，通常不爱投资银行类股【但他已经一次又一次地打破了这个规矩，第一次是富国银行，近期的有美国银行（Bank of America）和美国合众银行（US Bancorp）】，但当时富国银行实在是太便宜了，不容错过。
That was a good call. Back in 1990, Wells Fargo had a market capitalization of $2.9 billion. It is now worth $275 billion. Last year, it earned more money than any other bank in the country. Berkshire is still Wells Fargo's largest outside shareholder, and Wells would like Buffett and Berkshire to stick around. Recently, Wells Fargo's CEO John Stumpf told an audience at the National Press Club that he advised the 84-year-old Buffett, who classically subsists on a diet of Cherry Cokes and steak, to cut back on his sodium intake. “When the food comes, Warren grabs a salt shaker in his left hand and one in his right, and it’s a snowstorm," Stumpf told the crowd. "And I know a snowstorm when I see one because I’m from Minnesota.”
这个决策非常明智。早在1990年，富国银行市值为29亿美元。它目前的市值为2750亿美元。去年，富国银行的收益超过了美国国内任何其他银行。伯克希尔哈撒韦公司仍是富国银行的第一大外部股东，而富国银行也希望巴菲特和伯克希尔哈撒韦公司能长期持有其股权。近日，富国银行的CEO 约翰•斯坦普夫在全美新闻记者俱乐部（National Press Club）发表讲话时称，他已经建议84岁的巴菲特削减钠的摄入量。巴菲特有常年喝樱桃可乐和吃牛排的饮食习惯。“当食物送到餐桌上时，沃伦一手抓一个盐瓶，两只瓶子齐刷刷地倒盐，简直是暴风雪的节奏。”斯坦普夫告诉听众称：“我来自明尼苏达州，我说那是暴风雪，就绝对算得上是。”
6. The Intelligent Investor
6.《聪明的投资者》（The Intelligent Investor）
Annual average compounded return: A lot
年平均复合回报率：许多
Total return: $45 billion
总回报：450亿美元
Years since read: 65 (published in 1949)
初次阅读时：65年前（1949年出版）
Buffett has said the best investment he ever made was not a stock or a bond or even in real estate, but buying a copy of The Intelligent Investor, a book written by Benjamin Graham. Buffett read the book when it came out in 1949 and later enrolled at Columbia Business School in order to take classes with Graham. Buffett says the book still guides his investment decisions today, and he has recommended it to Bill Gates, among others. Here's what Buffett had to say about the book in his most recent letter to Berkshire shareholders:
巴菲特说，他这辈子做过最好的投资不是某只股票或债券或房地产，而是买了一本本杰明•格雷厄姆所著的《聪明的投资者》。该书于1949年出版，当年巴菲特就阅读了此书。后来为了上格雷厄姆的课，巴菲特申请就读哥伦比亚大学商学院（Columbia Business School）。巴菲特说，这本书至今仍然是他投资决策的指引，他已经将它推荐给比尔•盖茨等人。以下是巴菲特在他最近写给伯克希尔股东哈撒韦公司股东的信中对此书的评论：
“I can’t remember what I paid for that first copy of The Intelligent Investor. Whatever the cost, it would underscore the truth of Ben’s adage: Price is what you pay; value is what you get. Of all the investments I ever made, buying Ben’s book was the best (except for my purchase of two marriage licenses).”
“我已经记不清我买第一本《聪明的投资者》花了多少钱。无论花了多少钱，都可以彰显格雷厄姆书中那句格言的真谛：价格是你支付出去的，价值是你所获得的。我做过的所有投资之中，买格雷厄姆的这本书就是最好的投资（我买的那两本结婚证除外）。”
