[经济广角]中国经济有望恢复

中国经济有望恢复

来源: Financial Times

虽然在09年的上半年，中国的经济曾一度下降至最低点，一位亚洲开发银行的顶级经济学家称亚洲经济有望从世界经济低谷中恢复起来。在一则采访报道中，该人士称亚洲经济现在正处于过度时期，并将从逐步走向复苏之路。另外，他还说，在过去的一季度中，中印两国的倚赖出口的制造业有所回升，经济增长势头进一步转好。

China recovery hopes gather pace

Despite signs of the bottoming-out （降至最低点）shown in the first half of this year, Asia's recovery from the global economic downturn（开始下降） will be mild and slow, a top economist of the Asian Development Bank (ADB)（亚洲开发银行） said.

In a group interview with reporters based here, ADB Chief Economist （首席经济学家）Jong-Wha Lee said Asia is now in a transition period （过渡时期）from the bottom of the crisis to the road of recovery.

But he warned that there are a lot of downsized （缩小尺寸的）risks along the road. "It is going to be long and bumpy（崎岖的，不平的）," Lee said.

The ADB in March forecasted the economic growth for developing Asia to plunge to 3.4 percent in 2009 and climb up to 6 percent next year.

Lee said countries like China, India and Indonesia continued to show strong growth momentum （势头）while manufacturing sectors（制造业） in some other export-dependent（依赖出口的） countries improved over the past quarter.

But he said the unexpected scale of economic deterioration （堕落，衰退）in industrialized （工业化的）countries especially the Europe prolongs （延长，拖延）the recovery of Asian economies.

Lee said now the consensus（一致意见） is that the European economy will contract 4 to 5 percent this year, worse than ADB's projection of 3 percent made in March. The prospect of the U.S. economy largely stays the same while Japan sends mixed signal on its current economic situation.

The chief economist said export remains an important drive of Asia's growth and without the global recovery it will be very difficult for Asia to go back to its sustained growth path.

Lee said while Asia's current mild growth feeds on regional demand, the industrialized world, especially the U.S., remains a key market for Asia's exports.

Aside from the risk posed by a prolonged and deeper recession in the industrialized countries, Lee said the rise in commodity prices（商品价格） and protectionism （保护主义）measures adopted by the developed countries will also affect Asia's recovery.

Keke Vew: Dawn always appears at the end of the dark.