特朗普称美国经济面临大衰退 遭经济学家驳斥

Some economists are pushing back against Donald Trump's comments that the U.S. is headed toward a "massive recession," calling the New York real estate developer's assertions "unfounded" and flat-out wrong.

近日，美国一些经济学家对特朗普发表的美国经济正处于"大规模衰退"边缘的言论进行了批判。他们表示，这个纽约的房地产开发商的言论是"毫无根据的"，是"完全错误的"。

Trump told The Washington Post over the weekend that the U.S. is headed for a "very massive recession," and he said the nation's unemployment situation is much worse than reported.

特朗普上周末告诉华盛顿邮报记者，美国正在走向一个 "大规模的衰退"时期，并称美国实际的失业情况比报道的要糟糕得多。

"First of all, we're not at 5 percent unemployment. We're at a number that's probably into the twenties if you look at the real number," he said. "That was a number that was devised, statistically devised to make politicians — and, in particular, presidents — look good."

"首先，美国的失业率不是5%。如果你想知道真实的数字，恐怕在百分之二十几，"他说。"官方统计是经过人为操纵的，为的是那些政客，尤其是总统脸上有光。"

In La Crosse, Wisconsin, Trump doubled-down on his recession call, telling supporters that "bubbles aren't pretty. We've had bubbles, and when they burst, it's not a good thing. And what I said is we're going to go into a massive recession, but I also say if I'm president that's not going to happen. Because I'm gonna straighten things out before it happens."

在威斯康星州的拉克罗斯，特朗普再一次提到了经济衰退。当天他告诉支持者说："泡沫并不美好，我们正坐在泡沫上，而当它们爆破时就大大的不妙了。而我说的是，我们将进入一个大规模的衰退时期。但我也要说，如果我当选为总统，这绝不会发生。因为在它发生前，我会处理得很好。"

Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Research in New York, told Reuters, "We're not heading for a recession, massive or minor, and the unemployment rate is not 20 percent."

美国裕信全球研究公司首席经济分析师哈姆·班德霍尔茨说:"我们不会走向经济衰退。无论严重与否，失业率也不是他口中的20%。"

Boston College economics professor Robert Murphy agrees. "Donald Trump's comments that the U.S. economy is heading toward a deep recession in which the unemployment rate will reach 20 percent is completely unfounded," he told ABC News.

波士顿大学经济学教授罗伯特·墨菲对此表示赞同。他告诉ABC新闻："特朗普认为美国经济正在走向严重的衰退时期，并且失业率将达到20％，是完全没有根据的。"

AFL-CIO chief economist William E. Spriggs also disputed Trump's numbers.

美国劳联产联首席经济学家威廉·斯普里格斯也驳斥了特朗普所说的数字。

"Though GDP growth is slowed, job growth has continued at a pace to close the job gap near January," he told ABC News. "The broadest measure of unemployment, which includes discouraged workers and those who are part-time who wish full-time, is now in single digits. So, a claim of 20 percent unemployment is not true. It is that high for some groups, like black teenagers, but not for whole populations."

"虽然GDP增速放缓，但就业却稳步增长，缩小了与二月份前后的就业差距，"他告诉ABC新闻。"度量失业率最广泛的量度可以看那些曾希望寻求全职工作的兼职工作者的指数，这个数字目前已是个位数。因此，失业率高达20%的说法是错误的。对于某些群体，比如说黑人青少年群体，确实有那么高的失业率，但对于整个美国来说并非如此。"