俄经济将陷衰退 普京面临新挑战

MOSCOW — President Vladimir V. Putin grew wildly popular by making Russians richer every year and by vowing to restore their country’s great power status. But now, with the government predicting Tuesday that the battered economy will fall into recession next year, that formula is in jeopardy.

莫斯科——弗拉基米尔·V·普京(Vladimir V. Putin)不仅让俄罗斯人一年比一年富裕，而且誓言要重振俄罗斯的大国地位，这让他获得了很高的人气。但是现在，这种做法恐怕快行不通了，因为政府本周二预测，遭受重创的俄罗斯经济明年将陷入衰退。

Every day brings a barrage of woeful economic news. World oil prices just hit a five-year low. The Russian ruble is down 40 percent against the dollar so far in 2014. Inflation is due to rise 9 percent this year and to continue climbing. Capital flight is expected to reach $128 billion.

每天都会出现一连串令人担忧的经济新闻。世界石油价格刚刚创下五年新低。从2014年初到现在，俄罗斯卢布兑美元的汇率跌幅已达40%。今年的通胀水平料将达到9%，而且还会继续提高。外逃资本估计将达1280亿美元（约合1万亿元人民币）。

The Kremlin suffered the collapse of the Soviet state and a government default during previous extended declines in oil prices, so the changing fortunes potentially pose extreme challenges. Experts underscore, however, that the country is far more resilient now than in the 1980s or in 1998, the previous times of crisis, particularly its stout private sector.

上一次油价长期下跌时，克里姆林宫经历了苏联的解体，以及政府的债务违约。所以当前命运的变迁可能会带来严峻的挑战。但是专家强调，与上世纪80年代或1998年上次危机发生时相比，现在的俄罗斯应对冲击的实力更强，其强健的私营部门尤其如此。

Mr. Putin has already shelved planned megaprojects, like the South Stream pipeline to ship gas to southern Europe that was canceled on Monday and a high-speed railway from Moscow to Kazan, a city east of the capital.

普京已经搁置了一些原计划实施的大型项目，比如将天然气输送到欧洲南部的南线(South Stream)管道项目，已于本周一取消。从莫斯科到其东面的城市喀山的一条高速铁路项目也被搁置。

Some analysts say the changes may be felt in the policy area, where Mr. Putin may feel compelled to tone down his aggressive, anti-Western stance. But others worry that he may do just the opposite, saying that his need to divert attention from economic problems might inspire further nationalistic adventures abroad, akin to the annexation of Crimea.

一些分析师说，政策领域可能会出现一些变化，普京可能不得不淡化他强势的反西方立场。但也有人担心，他可能反其道而行之，因为他需要把人们的注意力从经济问题上转移开，为了达到这个目的，他可能会在海外进一步推动民族主义的冒险，就像吞并克里米亚那样。

“It is a completely new reality for him,” said Sergei M. Guriev, a prominent economist who fled into exile last year, said of Mr. Putin. “Whenever Russia wanted the oil price to go up it has gone up. He has always been lucky, and this time he is not lucky.”

“这对他来说是一个全新的现实，”在评价普京时，去年逃亡的著名经济学家谢尔盖·古里耶夫(Sergei Guriev)说，“每当俄罗斯希望石油价格涨上去，油价就会涨上去。普京一直很幸运，但这次他走霉运了。”

Russia is heavily dependent on oil, which constitutes some 60 percent of its exports. With the collapse in prices coinciding with severe economic turbulence caused by Western sanctions over destabilizing Ukraine, Mr. Putin risks losing the engine that was supposed to power Russia back onto the world stage.

俄罗斯对石油的依赖十分严重，石油在其出口额中占60%左右。在油价大跌的同时，西方也因为其破坏乌克兰稳定的举动，而对俄罗斯实施了制裁，于是该国出现了严重经济动荡，普京可能会因此失去让俄罗斯重新走上世界舞台的推动力。

Financial experts say Russia’s most pressing problem is not the sinking ruble, despite its potential to prompt a run on the banks, nor the falling price of oil, although the annual budget was based on a price of $96 per barrel, which is now hovering around $70.

金融专家认为，俄罗斯当前最紧迫的问题，既不是可能引发银行挤兑的卢布贬值，也不是油价下降，尽管年度预算是基于96美元每桶的油价制定的，而这个价格现在徘徊在70美元左右。

“This is all peanuts compared to the financing crisis,” said Vladimir Milov, a former deputy energy minister turned opposition politician.

“与融资方面的危机相比，这些都是花生一样的小问题，”弗拉基米尔·米洛夫(Vladimir Milov)说。他曾担任能源部副部长，后来加入反对派阵营。

Nearly $700 billion is owed to Western banks, economists said, much of it by the giant state-run companies that constitute the heart of the Russian economy. But sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe over Russia’s annexation of Crimea and adventurism in southeastern Ukraine have blocked access to Western financing.

经济学家表示，俄罗斯欠西方银行近7千亿美元债务，其中大部分是巨型国有企业欠下的，它们构成了俄罗斯经济的命脉。由于俄罗斯吞并克里米亚、在乌克兰东南部开展冒险行动，美国和欧洲对其实施了制裁，让这些俄罗斯企业无法在西方融资。

Mr. Putin has yet to express publicly how he expects Russia to emerge from its financial problems. At a news conference last month, he addressed concerns about oil by saying that prices had been high enough in the first part of 2014 to finance much of the Russian budget, and that the country would just have to “wait and see” about next year.

对于俄罗斯怎样才能挺过财政难关，普京尚未进行公开表态。不过在上月的新闻发布会中，他谈到了对油价的担忧，他说2014年上半年的油价足够高，可以支撑俄罗斯预算的很大一部分，他还说明年的形势还需要“等等看”。

He also attempted to portray the large drop in value of the ruble as useful. “We used to sell by the dollar and get 32 or 35 rubles in return, but if you look at today’s exchange rate, we get 45, 47 or 48 rubles for every dollar’s worth of what we sell,” he said, and the ruble has reached 54 to the dollar since Mr. Putin spoke. “In that sense, budget revenue has even increased.”

普京还试图把卢布的大幅贬值形容成好事。“我们之前卖出1美元，可以获得32或35卢布，但以今天的汇率计算，我们卖出价值1美元的东西，可以获得45、47甚至48卢布，”普京说。“从这个意义上说，预算收入甚至有所增加。”现在卢布兑美元汇率已经跌至54比1。

Vedomosti, the main business daily, published an excoriating editorial on Tuesday comparing Mr. Putin to President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe, who the editorial said did basically nothing as the exchange rate there fell to four trillion Zimbabwe dollars for one American dollar.

周二，俄罗斯主要的商业日报《新闻报》(Vedomosti)发表了一篇措辞严厉的社论，把普京和津巴布韦总统罗伯特·穆加贝(Robert Mugabe)相提并论。社论说，在津巴布韦元兑美元汇率跌至4万亿比1的过程中，穆加贝基本上没有采取任何行动。

While noting that Russia was in far better shape, the editorial said that “the biggest problem of Russian leadership is inability to admit mistakes.”

尽管该社论指出，俄罗斯的状况比津巴布韦好很多，但“俄罗斯领导人最大的问题是不承认错误”。

“The economy is seriously ill, and the ruble rate is one of the indicators crying about the illness,” the editorial said. “Russia’s leadership refuses to admit there is an illness and pushes it into the depths.”

“俄罗斯经济患上了重病，卢布汇率只是明显病状之一，”社论说。“俄罗斯领导人拒绝承认疾病的存在，导致病情越来越严重。”

Anton Siluanov, the Russian Minister of Finance, called the report predicting a recession a “preliminary assessment” and said it had not been approved by the entire cabinet. Mr. Siluanov also argued that the ruble is now undervalued after its long slide.

俄罗斯财政部长安东·西卢阿诺夫(Anton Siluanov)表示，预测俄罗斯经济会出现衰退的报告是一个“初步评估”，并未获得整个内阁的认可。西卢阿诺夫还认为，卢布经过长时间贬值之后，目前估值偏低。

Mr. Putin is due to deliver his annual State of the Nation speech on Thursday, and there has been much speculation that he would announce more liberal or more centralized economic policies. Some economists think that the policy is essentially to wait out the sanctions, with the Kremlin anticipating that they will expire in a year and then all the financial problems will diminish.

普京将于周四发表每年一度的国情咨文讲话，人们纷纷猜测，他是会宣布更自由的经济政策，还是集中化的经济政策。鉴于克里姆林宫预料相关制裁会在一年后结束，之后所有财政问题都会减轻，所以一些经济学家认为，相关政策实质上是等待制裁结束。

The crisis will still be likely to force significant cuts in public spending. The Ministry of Economic Development, which publishes the government’s economic outlook, on Tuesday revised its forecast for 2015 to show a contraction of 0.8 percent, compared with a previous projection of 1.2 percent growth. Private assessments said there could be a drop of 2 percent.

危机依然可能会迫使公共开支大幅削减。周二，负责发布官方经济展望的经济发展部(Ministry of Economic Development)修改了预测数字，称俄罗斯经济将于2015年收缩0.8%，而不是此前预计的增长1.2%。私营部门的预测显示，该国经济可能会收缩2%。

The setbacks have slowed or eliminated goals to achieve higher wages, better health care and cheaper housing, ambitions laid out in a series of populist decrees Mr. Putin signed on his first day in office for a third term, in 2012.

在2012年第三个总统任期开始的第一天，普京签署了一系列民粹主义政令，其中罗列的宏伟目标包括提高工资、改善医疗、降低房价。然而，经济上的挫折推迟了这些目标的达成，甚至让它们成为泡影。

The 11 decrees described a “transformation strategy for society” for his new six-year term, creating 25 million “highly productive” jobs, raising life expectancy to 74 years and raising the birthrate.

那11份政令为普京新一届的六年总统任期描绘了一项“社会转型战略”，期间将创造2500万个“高生产率”就业岗位，使民众的预期寿命提高到74岁，并提高出生率。

“Russia is in an economic crisis,” said Kirill Rogov, an independent economic analyst. “Of course, all those grand plans are irrelevant now.”

“俄罗斯陷入了经济危机，”独立经济分析人士基里尔·罗戈夫(Kirill Rogov)说。“当然，所有那些宏伟计划现在都没意义了。”

It is impossible to predict whether the economic woes might inspire antigovernment demonstrations. There have been minor protests in Moscow by medical professionals denouncing the closure of about 28 clinics in the capital and the dismissal of 10,000 medical staff members.

还无法预测经济困境是否会引发反政府示威。医疗工作者已经在莫斯科举行了小规模抗议，谴责莫斯科大约28家诊所被关停，1万名医疗工作人员被解雇。

But the effects of the economic problems are just beginning. Once constituents like pensioners realize that the ruble is losing its purchasing power, they can be expected to demand raises so they can buy as much as they did previously. But the state companies will be first in line.

但经济问题的影响才刚开始显现。如果退休职工等群体意识到卢布的购买力正在减弱，他们预计会要求提高退休金，这样才能买到之前那么多东西。不过，首当其冲的是国有企业。

“The problem is that he cannot deliver on his economic promises, so he has to deliver on post-imperial nostalgia,” Mr. Guriev said of Mr. Putin. “He will say that we are not rich anymore, but we are at least feared.”

“问题是他无法兑现经济方面的承诺，因此他不得不迎合后帝国主义的怀旧心态，”古里耶夫在评价普京时说。“他会说，尽管我们不再富裕，但我们至少令人敬畏。”