有没有胆量与普京打一场经济战

For all the costs that sanctions are inflicting on the Russian economy, the Russian flag still flies over Crimea, Moscow remains undeterred and the ceasefire in Ukraine is at risk. Worse still, Russia is using its own form of economic warfare as a shield and a sword.

尽管制裁为俄罗斯经济带来了巨大代价，但俄罗斯国旗依然在克里米亚上空飘扬，莫斯科方面没有被吓倒，乌克兰停火面临风险。更糟糕的是，俄罗斯正在动用自己的经济战手段展开攻防。

Western strategy has focused on blocking future deals with the Russian military sector, restricting Russian banks’ access to long-term capital, depriving elements of the Russian oil sector of technology they need for deep-sea and shale drilling, and freezing the overseas assets of individuals tied to the Kremlin.

西方的战略迄今聚焦于几个方面：阻止与俄罗斯军工部门达成未来交易、限制俄罗斯的银行获取长期资金、禁止向俄罗斯石油业的某些部门提供他们急需的深海及页岩油气钻探技术，以及冻结克里姆林宫相关人士的海外资产。

But most existing contracts between western interests and their Russian clients have been allowed to continue. Rather than dealing an instant blow, the aim has been to starve the country of capital by sowing doubts among western investors about the wisdom of investing in Russia. Contracts and capital have evaporated, growth has slowed and leading Russian companies such as Aeroflot, the airline, have been unable to acquire necessary investment.

不过，西方企业与俄罗斯客户之间的多数现有合同被允许继续履行。制裁的目标并不是要对俄罗斯发动立竿见影的打击，而是要在西方投资者心目中播下疑虑的种子，让他们怀疑投资俄罗斯是否明智，从而令俄罗斯陷入资本枯竭。大量合同和资金已经蒸发，增长已经放缓，包括俄罗斯国际航空公司(Aeroflot)在内的俄罗斯领先企业无法获得必要投资。

But there is a limit to the amount of financial pain that the west can inflict on a big economy with substantial economic ties to Europe and the rest of the world. Russia’s entanglements are vulnerabilities but they also allow Russia to exact a price of its own.

然而，对于俄罗斯这样一个与欧洲乃至世界其他地区有着大量经贸往来的大型经济体，西方制裁能够造成的痛苦是有限的。俄罗斯对外经济联系是它的弱点，然而这种联系也被俄罗斯用来让其他国家付出代价。

Companies subject to western sanctions are making moves to circumvent the restrictions.

受到西方制裁的企业正在采取措施，规避各项限制。

Rosneft, the Russian oil company, is set to buy 30 per cent of Norway’s North Atlantic Drilling, enabling it to gain access to offshore drilling capabilities in the Arctic despite technology export bans and financial restrictions.

俄罗斯石油公司(Rosneft)将买入挪威北大西洋钻井公司(North Atlantic Drilling) 30%的股份，这让该公司能够绕开技术出口禁令和财务上的限制，获得北极海域的海上钻井能力。

Meanwhile, Russian investors deepen their economic interests in London, Frankfurt and New York. And the Russian sovereign wealth fund will be tapped for billions of dollars to shore up capital requirements at banks hit by sanctions.

与此同时，俄罗斯投资者在深化自己在伦敦、法兰克福和纽约的经济利益。而俄罗斯主权财富基金将拿出巨额资金，满足受制裁打击的银行的资本需求。

Moscow is biting back. In June it ended flows of oil and gas to Ukraine, and it is restricting exports to other European customers as winter approaches.

莫斯科方面在发动还击。今年6月，该国关闭了流向乌克兰的石油和天然气。在冬天临近之际，俄罗斯也在限制对欧洲其他客户的油气出口。

The Kremlin has banned agricultural imports from countries that have participated in the sanctions. It has closed four McDonald’s restaurants, using health inspections as a pretext, and it is flirting with a national payment system that could replace Visa and MasterCard. Western airlines may find themselves unable to fly over Siberia, forcing flights to Asia to take big detours. American consulting and accounting firms may be prevented from operating in Russia.

克里姆林宫已禁止从参与制裁的国家进口农产品。该国还以卫生检查为借口，关闭了四家麦当劳(McDonald's)门店。该国还在探索能代替Visa和万事达卡(MasterCard)的国内支付系统。西方的航空公司可能被禁止飞越西伯利亚，迫使飞往亚洲的航班绕一大圈。美国咨询公司和会计师事务所可能被禁止在俄罗斯运营。

The country has more cards to play.

俄罗斯手上还有更多牌可打。

It could cut off supplies of engines to the US space programme. It is a big exporter of titanium and other resources needed by western companies. Moscow could emerge as a sanctions-busting financial partner to a country such as Iran, at the height of nuclear negotiations.

俄罗斯可以切断供应给美国空间项目的发动机。该国还是西方企业需要的钛和其他资源的出口大国。俄罗斯还可能破坏对伊朗的制裁，在核谈判的紧要关头充当伊朗的金融合作伙伴。

The Kremlin could also enlist criminal networks to attack the computer systems of western targets, including big banks.

克里姆林宫还可能动员犯罪网络，攻击西方目标（包括大银行）的电脑系统。

The west needs a comprehensive strategy that intensifies financial pressure on Moscow while deterring Russian escalation. Sanctions should no longer be tied to diplomatic milestones. Instead, they should be seen as a continuous campaign that leaves President Vladimir Putin and the markets guessing. These financial measures should be targeted principally on Russian illicit conduct that threatens the integrity of the financial system. This approach has proved highly effective in Iran.

西方需要一套完善的战略，一方面强化俄罗斯所受的财务压力，另一方面能吓阻俄罗斯，使其不敢升级。制裁行动不应再与外交里程碑挂钩。相反，制裁行动应当被视为一场持续的斗争，让俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)和市场捉摸不定。金融制裁举措应该主要针对俄方威胁金融体系完整性的非法行为。事实证明，这种方法在针对伊朗的制裁中非常有效。

New Russian investments in the west need to be carefully scrutinised, and western commercial contacts with suspect individuals and companies further constrained. Europe needs to secure alternative sources of oil and gas, though this will take time. Other countries, too, should seek back-up supplies of resources they buy from Russia.

俄罗斯对西方的新投资必须受到仔细审查。此外，还要进一步限制西方与可疑个人和企业的商业往来。欧洲还必须找到替代的油气来源，尽管这将需要时间。其他国家也应该寻找从俄罗斯进口资源的替补供应源。

Unless Washington and Brussels are willing to endure some economic pain, their sanctions campaign will prove ineffective. They should be prepared for a frozen conflict in which Moscow is willing to use its own economic weapons.

如果美国和欧盟不愿意忍受一定程度的经济痛苦，他们的制裁就不会奏效。他们应该做好准备，迎接一场俄罗斯动用其经济武器的天寒地冻般的冲突。