俄总统普京对抗西方国家制裁的经济账
A group of men sit in a Kamaz truck – one of those big Russian 4x4s that regularly wins the Dakar rally – speeding down a highway. Some of them sense that they are going the wrong way fast but nobody dares do anything.
一群人坐着一辆卡玛斯卡车（Kamaz，俄罗斯的一种大型四轮驱动卡车，经常在达喀尔拉力赛(Dakar Rally)上夺冠），在一条高速公路上急驶。车上有些人感到他们正朝着错误的方向疾驰，但谁也不敢有所动作。This graphic scenario is how the head of an oligarch-backed investment group close to the Kremlin describes the predicament in which Russia’s political and economic leadership finds itself.
一家接近克里姆林宫的、寡头背景的投资集团的主管称，上述这幅图景符合俄政治与经济领导层对自身目前所处困境的看法。
Since a Malaysia Airlines flight was downed in eastern Ukraine on July 17, killing all 298 people on board, things have gone very wrong, very fast for President Vladimir Putin of Russia. The belief in most western countries that a band of pro-Russian rebels shot the Boeing 777 down with a missile provided by Russia has transformed frustration at Moscow’s support for the insurgents into fury. Western media headlines are labelling the Russian leader a murderer and a pariah, and European governments are discussing new sanctions which, if implemented, could wreck the country’s economy.
7月17日，一架马来西亚航空(Malaysia Airlines)客机在乌克兰东部被击落，机上298人全部遇难。对俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)来说，自那时起，形势就朝着非常错误的方向急速发展。大多数西方国家相信，乌克兰的一小撮亲俄叛军使用俄方提供的导弹击落了那架波音777 (Boeing 777)客机。这种看法使得俄支持乌克兰叛军引发的失望转变成了愤怒。西方媒体头条为普京贴上了杀人犯和社会弃儿的标签。欧洲国家政府正在讨论新的对俄制裁，倘若这些新制裁得以实施，可能会摧毁俄罗斯的经济。
This dramatic turn of events is leading some observers to warn that Mr Putin, long viewed as a master tactician, has overplayed his hand this time. “Everyone just sits and watches the crazy things our government is doing,” says Roman Lokhov, chief executive of global markets and investment banking at BCS, the largest independent broker on the Moscow Stock Exchange.
事态的戏剧性变化促使一些观察人士告诫普京说，他这次玩得有些太大了。长期以来，普京一直被视为一位战术大师。“每个人都只是坐在那里，看着我们的政府在搞那些疯狂的事情，”BCS全球市场与投行业务的首席执行官罗曼•洛霍夫(Roman Lokhov)表示。BCS是莫斯科证交所(Moscow Stock Exchange)最大的独立经纪商。During his 14 years in power as both president and prime minister, Mr Putin has often gambled big and mostly won. He went to war with Georgia in 2008 but less than a year later the action was all but forgotten as the US decided to “reset” the bilateral relationship. He muscled Russia back into its global power position with his involvement in the Syria crisis. With a mixture of economic incentives and threats, he worked tirelessly to strengthen Russia’s influence over former Soviet republics – an endeavour that has hit a bump only now with Ukraine.
普京在作为总统和总理掌权的14年里经常展开豪赌，而且基本上都赌赢了。2008年，他发动了与格鲁吉亚的战争，但过了还不到一年，那次行动就几乎已被国际社会忘掉，美国也决定“重置”美俄双边关系。通过介入叙利亚危机，普京帮助俄罗斯强行重新跻身全球大国之列。他综合运用经济激励和威胁，不知疲倦地致力于强化俄对前苏联加盟共和国的影响力——这一努力只是最近才碰了钉子，这个钉子就是乌克兰。This year, Mr Putin appeared to have accomplished the biggest feat of all with the annexation of Crimea. Although a wave of western sanctions put further strain on Russia’s slowing economy, there is little likelihood of Moscow being forced to give the territory back to Ukraine. Mr Putin upped the ante by declaring Russian-speakers in eastern Ukraine part of a wider “Russian world” that Moscow was prepared to defend, regardless of national borders.
今年，随着俄罗斯吞并克里米亚，普京似乎完成了一项最大的壮举。尽管西方的一波制裁让正在放缓的俄罗斯经济承受了更大的压力，但俄被迫把克里米亚交还给乌克兰的可能性微乎其微。普京还加大了赌注，称乌克兰东部讲俄语的人群是更广泛的“俄罗斯世界”(Russian world)的一部分，俄政府准备保护这一世界，不管其具体属于哪国。At home, this has been hugely successful. On the back of euphoria that Mr Putin has restored Russian pride and power, his popularity ratings have soared to close to a record 90 per cent, according to state-run VTsIOM and independent Levada, Russia’s biggest pollsters.
这样做法在俄国内取得了巨大的成功。官方的全俄民意研究中心(VTsIOM)以及独立的勒瓦达中心(Levada)的数据显示，在普京恢复俄罗斯自豪感与影响力带来的狂喜的支撑下，他的支持率大幅上升，逼近90%这一最高纪录。The sentiment has allowed Mr Putin to divide and crush what remains of a shortlived rebellion by Moscow’s middle class against his increasingly autocratic rule in late 2011 and early 2012.
这种民意使得普京能够分化并扫清一次短命反抗的残余影响——2010年末到2012年初，莫斯科中产阶级曾站出来反抗普京专制色彩日渐浓厚的统治。Pavel Surikov, a German-educated interior designer who says he took part in the anti-Putin marches back then, no longer speaks to two former friends because they criticised Mr Putin’s Ukraine policy. “Ever since the Soviet Union fell apart, the US has been encroaching on Russia’s sphere of influence, and Ukraine is no exception,” he says. He rejects western media reports about the downing of MH17 as lies and propaganda and accuses the west of ignoring the plight of Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine. “I know Putin has done a lot of bad things, but he is right on this one,” says Mr Surikov. “We are strong. And we will stand together no matter what they do to us.”
帕维尔•苏里科夫(Pavel Surikov)是一名在德国受过教育的室内设计师，他说自己当时参加过反普京的游行。但他现在不再理睬以前的两位朋友了，因为他们批评普京的乌克兰政策。他说：“自苏联解体以来，美国一直在蚕食俄罗斯的势力范围，在乌克兰也不例外。”他不相信西方媒体关于马航MH17航班被击落的报道，认为那是谎言和宣传攻势，并指责西方罔顾乌克兰东部讲俄语人群的困境。“我清楚普京做了很多坏事，但这件事他做对了，”苏里科夫说，“我们很强大。无论他们怎么对付我们，我们都将团结在一起。”But such beliefs might soon be put to a tough test, which observers believe could be Mr Putin’s undoing. They argue that economic decline could quickly deflate the nationalist euphoria fed by a relentless state media campaign. “You have to keep raising incomes,” says the Russian investment group executive. “There’s not a lot of historic precedent for containing an isolated system except North Korea. You can’t do it, not today.”
但这些信念可能很快就会面临严峻考验。观察人士认为，这次考验可能成为普京的滑铁卢。他们辩称，官方媒体无休止宣传催生的民族主义狂喜，可能很快就将被经济衰退所冲淡。“你得保住收入的增长势头，”上述那名俄罗斯投资集团的高管说，“除了朝鲜以外，历史上并没有多少先例告诉你如何掌控一套闭关锁国的体制。你做不到这一点，现在这个时代做不到。”Alexei Kudrin, a former finance minister and one of Mr Putin’s most trusted economic advisers, warned the president this week against going further down the path of hostility with the west, which he said was hurting business.
普京最信任的经济顾问之一、俄罗斯前财长阿列克谢•库德林(Alexei Kudrin)最近告诫普京称，不要在对抗西方的道路上越走越远。他说，那样会伤害俄罗斯的商业利益。Igor Yurgens, a former Kremlin adviser close to Dmitry Medvedev, the prime minister, says there is a chance to repair things if Mr Putin acts now. “We can reset our relationship with the west. We will never be the same as Poland or the Czech Republic, but we could return to pragmatism and find reasonable terms with the west, as we have done before.”
与俄罗斯总理德米特里•梅德韦杰夫(Dmitry Medvedev)关系密切的前克里姆林宫顾问伊格尔•尤尔根斯(Igor Yurgens)说，如果普京现在采取行动，还有机会补救。“我们可以重置与西方的关系。我们绝不会变成波兰或捷克那样，但我们可以重回实用主义，与西方谈妥合理的条件，就像我们以前所做的那样。”Mr Putin does not like the choice with which he is confronted. When he addressed the nation on the downing of MH17 in a video message recorded in the early hours of Monday, he stepped nervously from one foot to the other, his face sweaty and rigid, his eyes blinking heavily and an eyebrow twitching.
普京不喜欢摆在他面前的选择。在最近录制的一段视频中，普京就MH17航班被击落一事向全国发表讲话。视频画面显示，他紧张地不停切换站立支撑脚，脸上冒汗，神情僵硬，频繁眨眼，眉毛颤动。The threat is that he could lose the solid economic ground that has underpinned his hold on power for so long. Economists and executives believe that the latest US sanctions, which partly bar some Russian banks and energy companies from US capital markets, will hurt Russia’s economy. While broader punitive measures from the EU could throw it off the rails.
他面临的威胁在于，可能会失去长期以来支撑他掌权的坚实经济基础。经济学家和高管们认为，美国最近推出的制裁措施——在一定程度上禁止某些俄罗斯银行和能源企业进入美国资本市场——将对俄经济构成伤害。而欧盟(EU)更全面的惩罚性措施，可能会使俄经济脱轨。A total of $161bn in foreign debt owed by Russian banks and companies comes due over the next 12 months, according to the central bank. “Given the relatively strong fundamentals of Russian corporates, we believe that the external funding requirements are manageable, but would be at risk if sanctions continue to increase in degree and in duration,” Jacob Nell, chief Russia economist at Morgan Stanley, said in a research note this week.
俄央行数据显示，俄罗斯银行和企业有总计1610亿美元的外债将在未来12个月内到期。“考虑到俄罗斯企业相对强劲的基本面，我们认为当前的外部融资需求是可控的，但如果制裁程度继续加大、制裁时间继续延长，外部融资需求将面临风险，”摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席俄罗斯经济学家雅各布•内尔(Jacob Nell)上周在一份研究报告中表示。VTB24, the retail arm of Russia’s second-largest lender, cut back new loans to small businesses dramatically – “the first indicator of a general worsening of the situation with the economy”, Mikhail Zadornov, the state bank’s chairman, said on Wednesday. In the first half of the year, VTB24 gave out just 68.7bn roubles worth of new loans to small businesses, a drop of more than 20 per cent compared with the previous year.
俄罗斯第二大银行的零售部门VTB24大幅削减了对小企业的新增贷款，这家国有银行的董事长米哈伊尔•扎多尔诺夫(Mikhail Zadornov)上周三表示，“这是经济状况整体恶化的首个迹象”。今年上半年，VTB24仅向小企业新发放了价值687亿卢布的贷款，同比减少逾20%。Economists say the growing squeeze will lead to a further decline in already anaemic investment. They also fear the rising pressures on the budget could lead to a smothering of consumer spending and exports which have kept the economy afloat so far. “The GDP growth forecasts range between 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent for this year, but with these problems on the horizon, we could well be headed into negative territory,” says the representative of an international economic organisation in Moscow.
经济学家表示，日益严重的资金吃紧将导致原本已经不足的投资进一步减少。他们还担心，不断上升的预算压力可能会抑制消费支出和出口，而这两者迄今为止维系了俄经济的正常运行。“今年国内生产总值(GDP)预期增长0.5%至1%，但随着这些问题的浮现，增长很可能变成负数，”一家国际经济机构驻莫斯科的代表表示。. . .
……The kneejerk reaction of conservatives on Mr Putin’s team is to close ranks further and clam up. This week, government officials discussed resuming production of the Ilyushin 114, a small passenger aircraft, which ended two years ago. “It is a good time to make our own instead of getting a foreign one,” tweeted Dmitry Rogozin, the nationalist deputy prime minister who is in charge of the military-industrial complex.
普京班子里保守派的本能反应是进一步提升凝聚力和闭关锁国。上周，俄政府官员讨论了恢复小型客机伊尔-114 (Ilyushin 114)的生产，该机型已于两年前停产。“这是我们自主生产、停止向外国购买飞机的好机会，”持民族主义立场、主管军工联合体的俄副总理德米特里•罗戈津(Dmitry Rogozin)在Twitter上表示。Mr Nell predicts that under such economic pressures, the Russian government will loosen its budget discipline, suspend its currency liberalisation plans and turn towards a more static, protectionist economic policy.
内尔预测称，在这样的经济压力下，俄政府将放松预算纪律，暂停汇率自由化计划，转向更为静态、保护主义的经济政策。Three people with knowledge of economic policy discussions said conservatives in favour of isolationist policies were gaining the upper hand amid accusations by western governments against Mr Putin and the threat of further sanctions. “It has become a lot easier to argue along the lines of, ‘let’s close the doors, we can do just fine without them’,” said one.
三名了解经济政策讨论的人士称，在西方政府指责普京并威胁实施进一步制裁的背景下，倾向于孤立主义政策的保守派正占据上风。其中一人表示：“现在提出‘关上大门，没有他们我们做得也不错’这样的观点，要远比以前更容易得到认同。”Russian business, although very careful not to comment on politics, is terrified at that prospect. Many of the country’s large groups could be forced by more sanctions and an inward turn by Russia to sell overseas assets, reduce investment and rely mostly on government contracts. Smaller companies could be hit hardest in any credit crunch because they lack the political connections to soften the blow.
俄罗斯企业虽然非常小心地不去谈论政治，但仍对这种前景感到恐惧。在更多制裁和俄罗斯变得更加锁国的影响下，俄罗斯许多大企业可能会被迫出售海外资产、削减投资，主要依赖政府合同过活。万一发生信贷紧缩，最受影响的可能是中小企业，因为它们缺乏能够缓解冲击的政治人脉。Some western analysts argue, however, that Washington could be mistaken in its calculation that raising the pressure on Mr Putin will make him change course.
然而，一些西方分析人士辩称，华盛顿方面的盘算可能是错误的，加大对普京施压可能并不会使他改弦易辙。“Sanctions will be costly to Russia; there is no disputing that . . . But if the motivation is defence of vital national interests and survival, Russia – like any state – will resort to import substitution and even more radical sorts of interventions to defend itself, no matter what the cost,” Clifford Gaddy and Barry Ickes wrote in a paper for the Brookings Institution in May. “History tells us that Russians can endure enormous hardship. Coping and survival are part of Russian history and the Russian national identity.”
“制裁将给俄罗斯带来沉重代价，这是毋庸置疑的……但如果动机是捍卫国家关键利益和谋求生存，那么俄罗斯将像任何国家一样，不惜代价地寻求用国货来替代进口货，甚至采取更为激进的干预措施来保护自己。”克利福德•加迪(Clifford Gaddy)和巴里•伊克斯(Barry Ickes)今年5月在为布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)撰写的论文中写道，“历史告诉我们，俄罗斯人能够忍受巨大的苦难。应对艰难和谋求生存是俄罗斯历史和俄罗斯民族认同的一部分。”So far, Mr Putin is not showing his hand. At a national security council meeting this week, he said Russia was not facing a direct threat to its sovereignty right now – a remark widely interpreted as a signal that he does not want to step up the tension in eastern Ukraine.
迄今为止，普京还没有展露意图。在上周的一次国家安全委员会会议上，他称俄罗斯主权目前还未受到直接威胁，该言论被普遍解读为他无意升级乌克兰东部的紧张局势。But that will hardly be enough. With pro-Russian rebels having shot down two more Ukrainian military aircraft since the MH17 crash and no sign that Russian support has stopped, Mr Putin remains on a confrontation course.
但这远远不够。MH17航班坠机后，乌克兰亲俄叛军又击落两架乌克兰军机，而且没有迹象显示俄停止了对这些叛军的支持，所以说，普京仍然在走对抗的道路。And he alone will decide whether there is a way out. Nobody in Mr Putin’s inner circle has the clout to challenge him, says the Russian executive. “Have you ever tried to jump in front of a speeding Kamaz truck?”
至于是否存在出路，则完全取决于普京一人。上述那名俄罗斯高管表示，普京的小圈子里没有任何人有实力对他构成挑战。“你试过跳出来挡在疾驰的卡玛斯卡车前吗？”
